The Real Danger in East Asia Affects India

The real danger in East Asia is not a swift and bold move by China to overwhelm Taiwan; it is not a despotic Kim Jong Il launching his army across the 38th parallel, and it is not a resurgent China seeking dominance. The real danger is of all these events occurring simultaneously.

Perhaps, the USA can restrain Kim Jong Il in Korea, and perhaps the USA can repulse an invasion of Taiwan by China, but what the USA may be unable to do is ward off both invasions when launched concurrently. History has shown that world politics can change suddenly, or that peace can quickly turn into war, and that preparation for war must never be taken lightly. In this regard, China has been planning actively for an invasion of Taiwan for the last thirty years whilst rattling its saber for sixty, while USA is scattered across the globe in 140 countries.

In 2007, Sino-Russian exercises were held off the western and eastern coasts of Korea.  Why did they select that particular exercise at that particular location? It seems that something specific was brewing in the minds of Russia and China. It would appear that a joint pincer movement by Russia and China, who are quiet allies of North Korea, cannot be ruled out in the future, as the two countries venture to defend North Korea or capture South Korea. A simple ruse could cause a war, and the current sanctions against North Korea could be the first of many possible sparks. An escalation by the North could lead to a counter thrust by the South into the North and that would generate conditions for a replay of the 1951-53 war. Remember that Russia gifted South Korea back to the USA after World War II, and continued to assist North Korea during the Korean War, alongside China. Therefore, if there is a full-scale intervention in Korea by China and Russia, a synchronic push into Taiwan by China will have the USA reeling and scrambling. While China is already cozying up to Russia – pre-1962 allies – the USA has no close allies of similar or equal strength in the East Asian region that could be likely coaxed into war if needed. But, what happens in East Asia will probably affect India.

That China will win one of the two battles of Korea/Taiwan, if not both, seems highly plausible.  This would be enough of a victory for them and Russia, both of who will wish to see the war in Korea contained or stalemated, if not won.  What is the USA’s plan if such an event were to occur?  From most indications, the USA is mostly “hoping” this won’t happen. But, “hope” is no weapon. The USA might have considered this eventuality in their strategic planning, but they are not quite prepared for it, and dread the possibility.

Chinese Generals know that a victory in Taiwan or Korea will not be easy. But, with China’s close proximity to these potential battlefields, in contrast to the USA’s ability to reach there only if they extend themselves, the sustainability of Chinese forces is greater, and their turnaround time for setup and refueling is shorter. Correspondingly, while the USA will be pushed to the limit, Chinese forces will stand a good chance to grab the edge in one battle zone or the other, if not both.

Russia will not weep for the USA.  The cold war has not ended – it has just taken a different embodiment. Autocratic Russia is quite happy that the USA is entangled in Iraq and Afghanistan. Overall, Russia has not yet given up on its competition with the USA.  Putin wears sheep’s clothing; his smart suits, soft talk, and smooth-shaved poker face are likely feints to throw the USA off-balance.    

As it is, observers fret that the USA will let Taiwan fend for itself: that, in a determined and protracted Chinese assault on Taiwan, the USA will stumble and its resolve weaken, while its internal politics divide the nation, empowering China to ultimately saunter into Taipei. Once the war starts, there will be people from everywhere in the USA wondering why the USA is fighting someone else’s war. They could conveniently forget that the USA promised to defend Taiwan. At the last minute, they could further drop Taiwan like a hot brick, so that their own soldiers may not have to die! As it is, the USA dropped Taiwan for China’s membership on the UN Security Council.

But, here’s the real fear in the aftermath: should China succeed in Taiwan, it will turn its 1,000 missiles and 12 army divisions currently pointed in Taiwan’s direction to other locations, many of which could end up on India’s border in Tibet. This will further raise the stakes of a future Sino-Pak invasion of India to fulfill what Mao Tse Tung could not do in 1965 or 1971. India could lose Arunachal (‘South Tibet’ to the Chinese) and the Tawang Tract in that encounter while making gains only in Sindh, not to forget that bold Chinese invasions through Myanmar could lop off India’s East, while an aggressive invasion through Nepal could bring them into India’s heartland. This is because India has not acquired the muscle to hold its own against feasible odds against an aggressive nation. For instance, compared to the 72 air squadrons India will need in such a situation, it has only 32 in operation; compared to the 65 submarines it will need to counter China, it has only 15. The valour and talent alone of India’s brave military personnel may be insufficient to win wars against numerically superior forces. Undoubtedly, India must rearm itself with triply-renewed vigor.

Till such time as India becomes a self-reliant power of its own, India’s security depends to a great extent on the USA and its goodwill, no matter how wishy-washy and fickle USA might be. (Unwittingly, Indian leaders have kept India dependent on foreign powers, though they fought hard to shake off the British). A strong relationship between the world’s two largest democracies – natural allies – is of basic importance. Thus, the USA disinvesting itself from godless China and turbulent Pakistan, and reinvesting in India is fundamentally necessary to ensure those ends and re-arraign the world balance, such that India and USA may help each other in the event of Chinese adventures.  Pakistan is worth sacrificing as a nation for those ultimate ends, even for USA.  Actions must be initiated now to make that happen, else even the security future of USA could become shaky.
 

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies).