South Asia�s Nuclear Syndrome: China Readies to Sell Nuclear Reactors to Pakistan

Nuclear politics is revisiting the Indian sub-continent yet again. Recent reports indicate that China is once again making an exception for Pakistan by providing it two nuclear power reactors in violation of NPT obligations. This controversial deal is bound to generate debate given the current uncertainties in Pakistan and the constant queries being raised vis-à-vis the security of its nuclear arsenal.

Mark Hibbs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace stated recently, “Contrary to guidelines adopted in 1992 by nuclear equipment supplier states in the NPT, China is poised to export two power reactors to Pakistan.” Hibbs stated that China has apparently argued that there are ‘compelling political reasons concerning the stability of South Asia’ to justify the exports. In fact, according to highly placed diplomatic sources, China is unlikely to justify the transactions on the basis of confidential commercial agreements between China and Pakistan.

Besides, confirmation regarding the deal has come in from China National Nuclear Corporation where it acknowledged signing an agreement with Pakistan for providing two new 650-MW nuclear reactors at Chasma i.e., Chasma III and Chasma IV. The supposed transfer would be a patent violation of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) guidelines representing 46 NPT states. These guidelines call on NPT-signatories not to supply nuclear equipment to non-nuclear weapon states including Pakistan without comprehensive IAEA safeguards.

The development follows the April 2010 Nuclear Security Summit which focused on the issue of nuclear terrorism. The summit was portrayed by US President Barack Obama as ‘an unprecedented gathering to address an unprecedented threat’ thus highlighting the looming threat of nuclear warheads and materials falling into the hands of non-state actors. It is in the backdrop of this statement, that the expected deal raises enhanced anxiety within South Asia, especially in India.

The safety of Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal has been an overriding concern even for the US. This became evident when President Obama sought assurances from Pakistan’s President, Asif Ali Zardari, in May 2009, about the safety of Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal .

However, even though the Obama administration stated that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons were secure ‘at least for the moment’, paramount unease revolves around the possibility that non-state actors would not let go of even a remote opportunity to seize a nuclear weapon. Although Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman, US Joint Chiefs of Staff, is comfortable about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, he expressed doubts regarding their ‘continuing safety’.

The imminent Sino-Pak nuclear reactor transaction reveals key facets of China’s ambitions as far as assertion of its power within Asia is concerned. It seems to have chosen to hawk its nuclear technological prowess within Asia as a counterpoint to Western nuclear technology. Firstly, it intends to establish its credibility in the construction and operation of nuclear reactors. Secondly, China has always sought to maintain some sort of parity between India and Pakistan in that whenever it sees Islamabad falling short on a given front, it rushes in to the rescue. This is visible in the impending transfer as it takes place following the much-debated Indo-US civilian nuclear deal—which enhanced India’s credibility as a responsible nuclear weapons power with a spotless non-proliferation record.

Bitter rhetoric against the much-hyped Indo-US civilian nuclear deal was displayed in the leading Chinese political daily and CCP mouthpiece, Renmin Ribao when it lashed out against the US for ‘being soft on India and deriding the NPT’. Commenting on the spillover effect of the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal, Renmin Ribao stated that if the US made a ‘nuclear exception for India’, other powers could ‘do the same with their friends’—apparently a clear reference to Pakistan. As a matter of fact, Beijing has precisely and unerringly done what it stated in this editorial by virtue of this latest nuclear reactor deal.

Renmin Ribao’s editorial added, ‘… the United States buys another country in with nuclear technologies in defiance of international treaty, other nuclear suppliers have their own partners of interest and good reasons to copy what the US did… A domino effect of nuclear proliferation will definitely lead to global nuclear proliferation and competition.’

Although the US and other NSG states will certainly object to this latest transaction, they can do little to prevent Beijing from the potential export of the reactors. Another factor which is likely to tie down the Obama Administration’s hand in cornering the Chinese would be in seeking its crucial support against Iran vis-à-vis fresh UN Security Council sanctions which are likely to be slapped in the coming months. Additionally, Washington’s dependence on Islamabad so as to launch military operations in Afghanistan and the bordering areas will keep the US muted on the issue.

The latest Sino-Pak nuclear reactor deal reasserts Beijing’s foreign policy witnessed in the past few decades wherein it has chosen to limit India’s growth and emergence as a regional player beyond the South Asian theatre—utilising the Pakistan as a ‘spoiler state’ against New Delhi.

Dr Monika Chansoria is a Research Fellow at CLAWS

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies).