Home The Kashmir policy is full of loopholes

The Kashmir policy is full of loopholes

The spirit of accommodation with which the Indian Government and more specifically, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, is viewing the Kashmir problem especially so after the recent bout of violence is now a subject of intense debate. There is a predominant perception that a response of this nature is correct since the issue is vitally linked to the security of the country’s citizens, the integrity of its borders, the hopes and aspirations of a segment of its population and the preservation of its democratic ideals. The Prime Minister is known to be a man of sound principles and quite pragmatic. He is reputed in coming up with workable solutions.

The Prime Minister has broken new ground by acknowledging that alienation among large sections of Kashmiris has become chronic. He believes it is necessary to address the “alienation and emotional needs”  of the people of Kashmir. This belief, by implication, acknowledges the existence of an injury or a state of sickness. It would help perhaps if one dwelled slightly on the nature of this injury or sickness which has resulted in a psychological disorder. The two words ‘injury’ and ‘sickness’ have different connotations. The first alludes to intentional harm caused by an external agency, while the second points to the possibility of an internally generated state of ill health. Which of the two is the cause of the Kashmiri malaise, needs to be precisely diagnosed if one is to attempt a healing touch.

The prevalent view that emerges from within Kashmir of course refers to repeated injuries caused by the Union of India on the person of Kashmir and Kashmiris. In fact, such is the hysteria and hyperbole that has been generated along these lines that the germane issues seem to have got eclipsed somewhere along the way. What after all is the harm that the Indian Government has caused to the State and people of Kashmir? Which are the atrocities perpetrated on the people and property of this region? Was it a crime to render aid when the region was reeling under the impact of a devastating earthquake? Was it an ingression on the liberty of the State if the Union government built a railway line that helped connect far-flung remote areas of the State with the capital as well as with each other? Or is it an attack on the self-respect of the Kashmiris if the Indian Government subsidises helicopter services to hard-pressed civilian population located in unapproachable areas in times of hostile weather conditions? Was the Kashmiri right to self-determination compromised when the Union Government poured developmental aid into the state or will it be compromised now when the Kashmiri people once again grasp the Prime Minister’s economic offering which will come by soon enough?

The tirade being run against the central security forces using the pretext of civilian deaths has been raised to such a frenzy that the Union Government in its attempt to normalise the situation is bending over backwards and inviting all interested parties for dialogue, such parties which are advocating separatism from the Union. There are those who want to remain independent and there are those who would like to join Pakistan. Both eventualities are non-starters. For what kind of independence would it be if they left India to join Pakistan whose own record as far as democratic rule is concerned is dubious to say the least? In case they decide to remain independent, would hawks such as Pakistan, China or the Taliban for that matter allow it? Would Kashmiri’s like to perhaps go the Afghanistan way?

The hue and cry often raised by Pakistan and Kashmiri separatists about Kashmir being under the occupation forces of India also needs to be tested. For instance, which occupation force would allow masses to protest the way they do every other day in Kashmir? Which occupation force would stand by and try to dodge stones being pelted at them by so called innocent civilians? Have we forgotten Chechnya, Bosnia or for that matter even Tiananmen Square? That is the stuff totalitarian regimes are made of. The very fact that Kashmiris, under the present regime, are being given the liberty to express so openly and fearlessly their harangue against the Indian Union speaks volumes for the tolerance of the Indian political system and its belief in the ideals of democracy.

On its part, the Union Government also needs to realise that dilution of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act is not going to change the situation because the main grouse is not against the Army in the first case. This policy of appeasement is not going to help anybody other than the terrorists who will get the much needed respite to recoup and then intensify their nefarious activities. In the present socio-political milieu it can be expected that despite this initiative the Kashmiris will continue to survive on the dole being given by the Centre, continue to berate the Centre, and continue to ask, nay demand for more. So long as the Kashmiris do not realise or are made to realise that ultimately it is their own region to which they are causing almost permanent damage nothing can be done to help them.

Jaibans Singh is a Defence Analyst specialising in matters relating to Jammu & Kashmir and Pakistan

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the editorial committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies).

 

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Jaibans Singh
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Kamal Kapoor
The dynamics of Kashmir have now shaken the sub continent for more than two decades. Pakistan, emboldened by Indian inaction has continued to feed the insurgency through decades by launching trained, motivated and indoctrinated Jihadis to fulfil Pakistani agenda of Op Topac and now Ghazwa i Hind. The aim has been to destabilise India through whatever means possible. The various fundamentalist groups found enough cannon fodder in the poverty stricken areas of POK including Khyber Pashtunwala. This distracted their attention from Kashmir, but only temporarily. Their tactics ranged from employing sleeper cells and their cronies for creating unrest in India through communal �wars�, terror strikes and promoting separatist movements in the valley and elsewhere.

The terror factories of Pakistan mushroomed all over these areas till they got consumed by the War on Terror. This warranted a change in tactics to keep the pot boiling in Kashmir. True to its credibility, the ISI manufactured a new recipe with a larger game plan � initiate �popular uprisings� or �Intifada� rather than direct militant action to burn the valley through internal discord. They also added intellectual flavour to their effort by politicising the issue through various opposition numbers and the separatists. The recent findings of Security forces and Central intelligence agencies who are interrogating Shabir Ahmed Wani, arrested by the Jammu and Kashmir police on Friday, have reportedly found that certain separatist leaders in the state are in direct touch with top officials of Pakistan�s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

The incumbent governments in Srinagar and Delhi unwittingly went along with this idea and added fuel to the fire by responding with force. The �Cycle of Violence� thus unrolled, washed away all the gains made by the military in bringing militancy to manageable levels. This suited Pakistan well, who having seen the politiking on the issue by main stream political parties, engaged in fanning fires of political discord and separatism.

The powers that be in Delhi and Srinagar suitably obliged by their inflexibility to this new approach of warfare. Thus started the war of perception management and information operation in projecting deaths of young Kashmiri stone pelting youth as the Kashmiri �intifada�negating the sacrifices of scores of military men who were killed or maimed by the terrorists. This shot separatists to fame and discredited the democratic alliance.The Perception Management War now began in true earnest with media and political parties projecting this as the defining �indigenous movement for freedom�. This largely from �experts� from India presenting their set of solutions to the problem in Pakistan Media.
Finding the situation ripe and unable to approach Indian MSM for fear of outright rejection, AG Noorani,an Indian lawyer publishes an article in Dawn insisting Indian leadership talk to Geelani. He has an absurd formula that defies all logic but appears to be pleasing to the ears � if you are a Pakistani. His assertion is, �Two steps are urgently called for. New Delhi�s invitation to Geelani �Sahib� for talks and resumption of talks between India and Pakistan on Kashmir before long. New Delhi has a track record of spurning overtures from Kashmiris and thus undermining moderates. The Mir Waiz is one of the victims of its shortsighted policies. It would be a pity if the opportunity presented by his five-point proposal is missed by New Delhi�. Amazing lawyer batting for separatists against Indian stand. A very respected voice commented on this article
He (Noorani) calls Geelani a highly respected leader and in a position to deliver. Ask the mainstream Kashmiris what they think of him and the Mirwaiz; you don�t have to ask Masrat Alam or the stone throwers.
He wants the UN to monitor troop withdrawals thus going against India�s basic stance since 1971�. bilateralism. He wants us to believe that there is consensus that AFSPA is a draconian law but does not want to state that because of it that India remains a Union that it was designed to be. He wants India to punish the killers of the 65 or so civilians. Let us ask him about the thousands of other civilians killed by the terrorists at the behest of the Hurriyat through acts of violence supported by it.

Lastly he calls the Mirwaiz a moderate face. To my mind the Mirwaiz is the most fundamentalist of the lot and draws his strength from the string of Maulvis who are today instigating the movement. He should be just be ignored and kept out of parleys, if at all.
Pakistan today is proud to be the epicentre of terror as it extracts adequate mileage from US in fighting two sides of the war on terror, where it is using terror as a strategic weapon. However this has stretched its resources to conduct serious terror operations in Kashmir and India.

Notwithstanding Noorani�s absurd assertions, there is a growing realisation that the first round of the perception management battle may have gone the Pakistani way. The word �Intifada� has gained currency in relation to the Kashmir imbroglio much to the delight of Pakistan. There is a larger game being played here as articulated in a post with similar name last month. With Kashmiri youth as the cannon fodder, Pakistan has a low cost option with maximum payoffs. It would be foolish to do anything else.
As events unfold it appears that the political process in the valley is losing steam and falling prey to Pakistan and al Qaeda�s larger aim of achieving objectives of Ghazwa-e-Hind operations. The operations then will spread through rest of India. At the cost of repetition this mandates inclusion here to provide a clearer perspective to the Pakistani plans:
�As per Asia Times Online, two militant organizations � al-Badr led by Bakht Zameen Khan and the Lashkar-e-Taiba, whose resources were largely depleted up until 2008 � are involved in the unrest. They have sent people across the Line of Control that separates the Pakistan-administered and Indian-administered Kashmirs. According to them, al-Qaeda sees the unrest in Kashmir as a �god-gifted� opportunity to steal the Kashmiri insurgency from its Pakistani handlers and use it for its Ghazwa-e-Hind operations. These sources say the next operation will be in the Indian capital New Delhi in October during the Commonwealth Games.�

In this battle of perception management, Omar Abdullah and the central leadership seem to have lost out big time to the Pakistani designers of this round of Kashmiri unrest. They are adopting the softer options of defanging the Armed Forces in dealing with the terrorists by watering down AFSPA � an activity at the centre of the current battle of perception management. Now the areas around the valley are under control because of the sacrifices of the troops on ground. Once this law is repealed, it will provide the desired shot in the arm to the terror groups and undermine the armed forces� morale and operational efficiency.

Thus what Pakistan could not achieve in the physical domain they will achieve in the temporal domain � the perfect way to achieve psychological dislocation of the Indian security forces.

In time, the valley may subside but the surrounding areas will pick up again, duly fueled and fanned by Pakistan.

The cause of the Kashmiri people is well understood but the tactical moves in this game of perception management should not take us back to 1989.

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