Kayani and his generals

The Pakistani army chief’s response to the recent WikiLeaks expose, reiterating support for democracy in Pakistan may just provide temporary comfort to the politicians currently in the saddle. As things stand, barring unforeseen mishaps, Kayani goes on as army chief till November 28, 2013. This would mean seeing off the present political dispensation and overseeing the next National Assembly elections in early 2013 or slightly earlier, assuming that the Zardari government manages to last its full term. Not annoying Kayani unduly would therefore be very important, both for the PPP leadership seeking a second term and Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League(N).

The three-year extension given to Kayani did block off avenues of promotion to several aspirants, most of them Punjabis. Nevertheless, he seems reasonably well ensconced in power and has brought in officers of his choice and proven loyalty in key slots, both at the level of Corps Commands and Principal Staff Officers (PSOs), assuaging, in the process, the discontented lot of Punjabi Generals.

Lt.Gen Khalid Shamim Wyne had been brought in as Chief of General Staff only a few months earlier after a successful stint as Corps Commander in Quetta. Logically, this could have been seen as a stepping stone to the chief’s post. He has now been accommodated as a Four-Star General in the largely ceremonial post of Chairman,  Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), giving a go-by to the convention of rotating this post between the army, navy and air force. Wyne will retire in October 2013, just before Kayani’s term ends. Another highly rated and well-connected officer, Lt Gen Sikander Afzal Burki has been sidelined in an extended foreign peace-keeping tenure in Liberia, which would take him to retirement in March 2011.The next senior, Lt Gen Javed Zia, has been sent to the XII Corps Command in Quetta, from where he should retire in September, 2011.

While slotting in newly promoted Three- Star Generals to the powerful collegiate body of Corps Commanders too, Kayani seems to have Punjab Regiment officers  with four out of the nine Corps Commands going to them,     including unusually, the II Corps Command at Multan, which has traditionally been held by an Armoured Corps officer. This time, a senior Infantry officer, Lt Gen Shafqaat Ahmed (Punjab) has been given the post. Of the three other Corps Commands, one each has gone to the Armoured Corps (Mangla), Pfiffers (Frontier Force regiment-Gujranwala) and Engineers (Bahawalpur).

Significantly, the two politically important Corps Commands of Rawalpindi and Lahore have gone to Baluch Regiment officers, Lt Generals Khalid Nawaz Khan and Rashad Mehmood respectively, who could be  expected to have ‘arm’ loyalty towards their chief. Like every other army chief before him, Kayani is proving no exception to the convention of favouring officers of his parent ‘arm,’ the Baloch regiment.

In particular, the loyalty factor can be very important in the crucial Rawalpindi command, both at the corps level, and in the 111 Brigade which has had the responsibility of bringing in the tanks every time army coups have occurred in the past. Kayani brought in Brigadier Fahim Raza, an Artillery officer as Commander of 111 Brigade in May 2008. Raza was well liked also by Kayani’s predecessor, Gen Musharraf and was on the latter’s personal staff.

In the Principal Staff appointments, seniority and professional specialisation appear to have been given due weightage, with the Heavy Industries, Taxila assignment going to an Armoured Corps officer and the lucrative ordnance factories post at Wah remaining with one the senior most generals, Lt Gen Shujaat Zamir Dar, who retires in September 2011.

Lt. Gen Nadeem Taj, one of Musharraf’s blue-eyed boys, fondness for whom is apparently not shared by Kayani, has been accommodated as Adjutant General from where he should phase out, in April 2011. Another of Musharraf’s favourites, Maj Gen Nadeem Ijaz whose career was blossoming at one stage, has sadly been superseded and is currently posted as GoC,Com Log Area, Gujranwala, at best a house-keeping assignment albeit in a bustling Punjabi industrial town.

An important slot of GoC, Strategic Forces Command is held by an Artillery officer, Lt Gen Jamil Haider.  Another is that of the GoC, Special Services Group, Cherat, now held by Maj Gen Farukh Bashir (Infantry) while the two operative assignments at the Special Project Directorate, Chaklala (in charge of nuclear stockpiles) — DG,Operations & Plans and DG-Security — have gone to Maj Gen Ausaf Ali of Engineers and Maj Gen Mohd Tahir Ashraf Khan (Infantry) respectively. A clansman, Maj Gen Naushad Ahmed Kayani (Infantry) appears to have been favoured as the new Director General, Military Intelligence.

With almost three years still to run, it may be rather premature to assess who may emerge as a potential successor to Kayani. One of the most important Kayani appointments will be that of DG, ISI, in March 2011. Whoever comes in at this slot is likely to be a trusted acolyte, on the high road to further important positions.
The next phase of retirements will be in September 2011 when some Corps Commands may be reshuffled. Majors General promoted directly to important staff assignments would look to complete their portfolios with command assignments to become eligible for the chief’s post.

Some crucial retirements will take place in October 2013, just before Kayani calls pack up time. Apart from Wyne, these will include the Rawalpindi Corps Commander, Khalid Nawaz Khan, Lt Gen Sardar Mahmood Ali, Deputy at the Joint Chiefs of Staff Directorate and the Multan Corps Commander, Lt Gen Shafqaat. Whether the new political executive can play favourites at this stage remains a moot question though the army would have none of it.

After Kayani retires, the following Generals will be senior most —  Lt Gen Asif Yasin Malik, currently XI Corps Commander, Peshawar, whose retirement date is March 31, 2014.Much would depend on how he handles the war against terror in FATA and what the Americans think of him.After him are the April 2014 retirees — Lt.Gen Waheed Arshad (Armoured Corps) who is highly rated and presently holding the crucial Chief of General Staff slot, and the Corps Commander, Lahore, Lt Gen Rashad Mehmood.  Lahore has had a jinx associated with it as no Corps Commander from there has made it as Chief so far!

R Banerji is retired special secretary, Cabinet Secretariat

Courtesy: Express Buzz, 18 December 2010.

http://expressbuzz.com/opinion/op-ed/kayani-and-his-generals/232158.html

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies).