Empty palaver in the time of nuclear diplomacy

The relationship between India and Pakistan is unique. Indian opinion makers constantly rant that a stable Pakistan is in India's interest. On the other hand, Pakistan has always treated India as a threat and talks of an unfinished agenda with a deep-rooted hate inbuilt in their attitude towards India.

It is a fact that besides the geography that these two countries share they cannot ignore their shared culture and history despite the best efforts by Zia-ul-Haq and his madrasa-based education system that breeds a sense of difference among the Pakistanis and create for them an Arab-centric identity as distinct from their subcontinental one. Political differences, if any, should have been resolved without making South Asia the most dangerous nuclear hotspot in the world.

Hence where does the dialogue begin? Does it have relevance in the current environment or are the two nations talking for the sake of idle talk. Never before has a dialogue between the two countries commenced with both the respective Governments as weak as the current dispensations. The Government in Pakistan is at its weakest moments and the Indian Government under severe attack from the Opposition. Is Pakistan taking lessons from China who cleverly carries on a dialogue without decisions, i.e. talks for the sake of talk?

A great churning has begun in the Arab world. The Pakistani society is still silent towards militant Islam and its roots in the subcontinent. In the midst of all of this, one hard fact has emerged. Violent Islam as represented by the jihad does not bring about change. The protestors in Egypt shunned violence and won the day. Pakistan as a state has been using the "death by a thousand cuts" policy and till date this policy has not worked. The social parameters in Pakistan, its daily suicide bombings and violence spreading to all its provinces, coupled with poor economic indicators, is clear - the chickens have come home to roost.

The contradictions in Pakistan are clearly visible for all to see. The state is armed to the teeth and its own Prime Minister is reportedly protected by Americans. Then what will happen to its crown jewels? The bomb in the hand of the rogue element is becoming an open reality. The civil society has kept silent and Malik Mumtaz Qadri who killed the Punjab Governor Salman Taseer is a virtual 'hero' whose path is strewn with flowers thrown by admirers.

The nuclear arsenal of Pakistan is India-centric and its delivery weapons and all paraphernalia are all India-centric. The nation is armed with a series of missiles starting from Haft series which carry a payload of 500 kg up to 100 km. The next lot is the Ghauri and the Shaheen series whose ranges are 750 km to 2,000 km, thus clearly being able to target all important cities.

In fact, with Chinese help, Pakistan is building another nuclear reactor and they currently have more nuclear bombs than India. Does a nation having only one enemy talk and also arm itself beyond its capabilities? The point can also apply to India but in our case we have threats from more than one nation and have a declared no-first-use policy. India also does not use state-sponsored terrorism and does not want strategic space in other countries to get strategic depth.

Without a Foreign Minister in Pakistan, the talks don't seem to be heading anywhere. In fact, India's obsession to talk is a clear let down from its earlier stand while the perpetrators of 26/11 walk free. The need for talks is not clearly understood. There is a basic contradiction in the Pakistani psyche which they will have to sort out.

The Army controls the foreign policy vis-à-vis India. As long as Pakistan maintains jihad in the east and looks at strategic depth to its west, once the Americans leave Afghanistan peace in our region will be hard to come by. Pakistan, in the meanwhile, requires funds and currently the Americans are more than willing to give the same. An odd-CIA operator Davis and his diplomatic immunity will be sorted out amicably by the courts.

What of the talks? Speculation is rife on a give-way on Saichen and Sir Creek - the reason not clearly understood. With the Chinese, who are currently playing their cards close to the chest, want to keep India busy in South Asia, in case an unstable Pakistan implodes it becomes more and more of a Chinese client state.

Have the Americans, in their zeal to exercise control over the world, pushed Pakistan and Afghanistan into China's lap? This is a question India needs to answer. An economic power-house the size of India needs to talk from a position of strength and foresight. An emerging power needs to think and act like one. It should not back-track from its stand especially if no results are on the ground.

Brig CS Thapa (Retd) is an advisor to the Pioneer Dehradun and writes a column, 'Mount View' for its Dehradun and Chandigarh editions.

Courtesy: The Pioneer, 21 February 2011

(The views expressed in the article are that of the author and do not represent the views of the editorial committee or the centre for land warfare studies).