The Arab revolutions and Indian options

Did any scenario planning foresee what is unfolding in North Africa? Probably not. At the scholarly level this is another example of how international relation (IR) theories could not foretell the events in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. IR scholarship also could not predict the break up of the former Soviet Union.

This shows that scenario planning can never be a foolproof exercise. Social change is difficult to predict. Yet it seems that to think through the various contingencies and options, scenario exercises may still help. But the time horizon needs to be shortened. It is no use talking of long-term climate change when we fumble to predict the weather.

What should India’s stand be? First, make out a list of the stakes involved in order of priority, keeping in mind the possibilities of it spreading to other Arab regions.

First, the large Indian workforce in West Asia. Almost 40 to 50 lakh Indians work in this region. Though their working conditions of the non-white collar variety may be nothing to write about, they nevertheless remit a sizeable amount of their savings to India, thus increasing our foreign exchange. Purely from the labour market and economic point of view, it is in India’s interest to have this workforce offshore. Besides, such a workforce provide human intelligence of the shifts in West Asia.  

Second, India will have to take into account that West Asia is its major source for oil. If other OPEC countries in the region get influenced by the peoples’ movements, then oil production may drop and oil prices may spiral out of control. Purely from energy security point of view, it is in India’s interest that production and prices are not impacted. But how will the events unfold is unclear.

One fact is clear, though. Stabilisation of the region may take a while. In this scenario, reliance on oil needs to be reduced drastically. Anyway, the age of oil is over. The turmoil provides another inspiration to spur up renewable energy research and use of electricity for public transport (like rapid transport system of trains and metros) instead of individual mobility provided by private cars which run on mostly imported fossil fuels. In this oil shock scenario the society needs to be involved from the beginning. Lifestyle changes like less use of energy, green buildings in the future can now be taken more seriously.

Third, democratic India needs to decide whether to support the mass movements taking place, purely from a moral standpoint? History shows that democratic Indians side with movements to oust dictators and autocrats. However, this is one scenario where it may be difficult to take positions because of absence of evidence. Yet, like in a battle, the fog of these events needs to be overcome by bold action. When in doubt – do.

After all, India can offer its good office and expertise for electoral reforms, especially in Egypt. Soft power through cultural, religious and civilisational link probably for the first time is in India’s favour.

What may be the trajectory of these trends?

In brief the assessment is that the current round of protests will effect a political revolution. This may take a long time. Unlike the primarily peaceful, non-violent movement in Egypt and Tunisia, Algeria has plunged into a civil war. Bahrain is in the boil, with the opposition protesting and the King digging in his heels. Saudi troops have also moved into the city, which points to the worry that the Saudi establishment has vis-à-vis the brewing dissatisfaction in West Asia’s population.

The impact on India will be immense. But a country can not duck and take cover to avoid this strong wind of change. It will be better to adjust to the impact rather than the business as usual approach. One big difference is that unlike the US or its allies and the NATO in Iraq and Afghanistan, India is not seen as a hegemonic power. There is no anti Indian feeling as compared to what exists against the West, the US in particular. India’s views will be considered by the people and through them to their political leaders.

Col PK Gautam (Retd) is a Research Fellow at IDSA

(The views expressed in the article are that of the author and do not represent the views of the editorial committee or the centre for land warfare studies).