Turmoil in Middle East and North Africa (MENA), what thereafter?

At the recent India Today Conclave 2011 Nobel laureate Elbaradei stated the revolution in Egypt was the brain child of the internet. Egypt has just successfully concluded a referendum for the proposed amendments to the country’s constitution and paved the way for Presidential elections.     Elsewhere, in Syria the Baathist   government of President Bashar al – Assad is facing its gravest challenge since he came to power in 2000 succeeding his father. In Yemen President Ali Abdullah Salehs fate is hanging, due to the support from the Army, while in Bahrain King Hamad who is a Sunni and supported by the Saudi royal family is turning the uprising into a sectarian conflict between 40% Shia, and 60% Sunni population. Libya remains a bone of contention between the UNSC members regarding use of force, the Arabs and the pro and anti Gaddafi supporters, as the help came a little late.   Winds of change are sweeping MENA turmoil is a by product. This change can be attributed to the youth who are more than 60% of the population who want these changes. Will these changes be superficial or deep rooted and bring genuine democracy, needs to be seen. 

There are protests in other countries as well and a total of 14 nations are affected. Most of these countries are Islamic with totalitarian regimes. It is the youth in the forefronts that are secular in nature and asking for democracy, with women in the front as well. Other Muslim countries such as, Malaysia with 55 % Muslim population and Indonesia are the only two exceptions in the East. Bangladesh is now experimenting with a democratic party that is not religiously inclined and Pakistan is slowing imploding under the weight of its contradictions. In West Asia region it’s only Turkey that has a democratic government but coming under pressure from the Islamist. In the back drop and a feeling that Islam and democracy do not go very much hand in glove, the MENA explodes while the Saudi world stays silent, are political equations changing. Such a violent change makes others wonder “Will the MENA turn Islamist, while the street wants democracy”.

Democracy is for the people by the people of the people, and the region that exploded, it was youth at the fore front of change. This was a massive demonstration of people power; it was about jobs and freedom. It was about social net working, it was a fight against oppression and the youth were in the vanguard. It was about people power, the Muslim Brotherhood and other political parties came in last. It is here that a caveat comes in, the only people who can fill in the void are political parties and the Brotherhood with its support base will find it easy to fill the vacuum. The problem is the same regarding end state of Libya, Syria, Bahrain and Yemen. Was this region ready for a democratic change remains to be seen?

The street violence that has erupted has forced the women to play a leading role in these revolutions. The role of women in civil society and the ideas of youth will sooner or later clash with the established rule of law. How does this play out needs to be observed. Democracy means a uniform civil law which Muslims find hard to adhere, therefore, the first contradiction is bound to come sooner than later. In a democratic society institutions are supreme and moderation is the order of the day. The rights of minorities are protected yet all this is preached by Islam but hardly practiced. Islamic regions generally state that they tolerate minorities but the minorities usually run away from them. Islam has turned violent in the name of Jihad and the sane voices are remaining silent, thus a clash of   ideas is bound to happen. 

The next issue that comes about is the Sharia law. Will there be place for the same? The system of justice an eye for an eye or other wise will not work in democracy; therefore, the youth are bound to revolt. Another contradiction is the role of women in society. Any society that does not give equal opportunities to half of its work force represented by women who are more adapt at conducting certain specific tasks which the men cannot perform at ease is poor management of Human Resources. The last issue is the state of the nations after misrule of 40 odd years. The average population is illiterate and poor. Democracy does not classically furnish under such conditions especially if religion is as dominant as Islam. 

As the region comes in from an oppressed age to an era of free thought action and belief Islam may well be a binder. The other side of the coin could well state that religion and politics do not mix. The sad truth is that they do and the more closed a society is the more religiously and castes inclined it becomes. Gradually people turn to development and other issues. 

How than will the region respond. This is a million dollar question doing the rounds. US are readying themselves for Islamist regions. There is no harm in it except the Chinese whose governance is seen as non religious will be the biggest beneficiary. Great events cast their shadows are the energy starved Chinese going to get a lot of oil which was strictly a white mans preserve.  Each country has its own equations and compulsions as also local influences. There is however a domino effect and Egypt is the game changer. Islamist governments span vast ideologies from the Taliban to Malaysia   on to Indonesia and Turkey brutal to moderate. The gap left by the dictators will initially in all probability and likely hood be filled by a moderate strain of Islam. How long the Islamist will last is the moot question, because soon the contradictions of Sharia law, uniform civil law as well as role of women in society will pose the next set of challenges. 

Where does the Indian State fit into all this?  India with 13.4% Muslim population is a democratic state and sooner than later these events will play out here.  There are a large number of Muslims in our society who has closed their minds to the Sachar Committee report. Large numbers of societies are being Talibinazed and have closed their minds with fundamental thought.  The dimension of uniform civil code as a vote catcher will be irresponsible and catastrophic in all probability. There is likely to be more upheaval and this is not the last we have heard of this. We need to insulate our selves from these winds of change by building on secular credentials, progress and sound economics and not vote bank politics. Its time for us as a nation to see what the others are doing and how they overcome these events as this will be a test of our democracy, while progressing all around till the very bottom of our society.

Brig CS Thapa (Retd) is an advisor to the Pioneer Dehradun and writes a column, 'Mount View' for its Dehradun and Chandigarh editions.

(The views expressed in the article are that of the author and do not represent the views of the editorial committee or the centre for land warfare studies).