Will Nepal keep the deadline with Constitution?

Nepal is heading for a political vacuum if the Constitution is not promulgated on time ie by May 28, 2011. This will lead to a big question of legitimacy and the outcome is not very certain. Going by the manner in which Nepal’s political class is conducting itself they are going to see a foreign hand, Nepal like Pakistan too is in a denial mode. Nepal’s political class needs to answer a question to its electorate “how do the political parties after a full extension of a year”, absolve themselves of all national responsibilities? There are various elements who would like to take advantage of this uncertainty.

The Indian nation which has enough turbulence in the region with the Osama affair and the expected early start of the end game in Afghanistan wants the least unsettled environment in this region. The crux of the message delivered by the Indian Foreign Minister was to complete the Constitution on time. There have been a series of visits by Indian delegations to cement the relationship starting with the Indian Chief, followed by India’s Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao and than this was SM Krishna second visit. He spent three hours with UCPN-Maoist chairman Prachanda, and besides meeting a lot of other dignitaries he also inaugurated a customs facility and met the COAS Gurung.

India will be a big suffers if the Constitution is not promulgated on time as uncertainty does not suit her and the meeting with the Nepal Army chief is thus significant. The Chief of the PLA China sanctioned a lot of funds for construction of a military hospital in Nepal. The only viable democratic institution left in Nepal which is going to be critical in the near future is going to be the Nepal Army. The Nepal Army is an a political institution like the Indian Army unlike the Chinese or Pakistan Army, hence its role in keeping Nepal a democratic nation is critical.

The three political parties are not agreeing with one another on two big issues, the form of governance and the restructuring of the State. Suddenly, Prachanda who was leading the sub committee has declined to meet stating he had other important issues. He has purposely made this body non-functional.

There are three possibilities that can happen. The first and most unlikely to happen is that a fresh mandate is sought, this will be rejected by all less the people of Nepal, for the politicians a large number of them will not return back to Parliament this could well be some big names as well, this is the inconvenient truth about peoples representatives of Nepal.

The second course is to complete the document in time, which now seems improbable therefore, is not being discussed. The next course is to seek another extension.

The situation is very fluid and what will the people and also the international communities at large think? It took 17 rounds to find a PM in Nepal, how many extensions for writing a Constitution is the moot question? The political parties have to have something in their hand to show to the people and than ask for an extension. Till now the only concrete plan of action emerging is to add another spin and that is to sacrifice the current PM Jhalanath Khanal and than only does the CA get an extension. Once that happens Prachanda stands a big chance of becoming the PM and delivering a Constitution as also a savior thus the Maoist might well get the type of Constitution that they want.

The two sticking issues are the Presidential form of Government which the Maoist want while the Nepali Congress wants the Parliament form of Government. The other issue is about State restructuring. Another sticky issue is the Army integration; while the Maoist prefers to integrate their cadre with the Army they also want control of the Army, like the PLA of China. Nepal has a fine document in the 1990 Constitution and if the parties are serious a Constitution can be framed in the required time frame but for reasons known best are unwilling to do so and the foreign hand as well as the PM as a scapegoat is well on the cards. The political parties have started talking of an extension beyond the three years that they have already taken, while on the other hand people are also keen that they seek a fresh mandate. Nepal will have to find answers themselves this is one issue where foreign hand is not likely to be the spoil sport.

Brig CS Thapa (Retd) is an advisor to the Pioneer Dehradun and writes a column, 'Mount View' for its Dehradun and Chandigarh editions.

Courtesy: The Pioneer, Dehradun, 16 May 2011

http://www.dailypioneer.com/338888/Will-Nepal-keep-the-deadline-with-Constitution.html

(The views expressed in the article are that of the author and do not represent the views of the editorial committee or the centre for land warfare studies).