Pakistan's latest pangs

For years, volatile Pakistan has been in the news –mostly for the wrong reasons. The current and rather serious crisis engulfing Pakistan these days, aptly dubbed “Memogate” by the media, threatens to tear its fragile democratic structure and a possible return to rule of the Army who, in Pakistan, for nearly 40 years out of its 64 years since independence, have held sway and appears, once again, ready to vacate their barracks to repeat history. The coming weeks are thus pregnant with myriad possibilities concerning the future of Pakistan. 

“Memogate” which chronicles the intrigues, lies and counter-lies, machinations and denials by many in the Pakistani establishment and selective leaks from some former senior members of the US security hierarchy has provoked the all-powerful Pakistan Army to up the ante against Pakistan President Asif Zardari’s government. Pakistan’s most dominant functionary, its Army Chief, Gen Ashfaq Kayani, reportedly no great admirer of his nation’s President, is much miffed with the memo allegedly delivered by Pakistani-American businessman Mansoor Ijaz to the since retired US Chairman Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen in May this year. This too place a few days after the Al Qaeda supremo Osama bin Laden was eliminated in Pakistan by US Special Forces in an independent operation further straining US-Pak Army ties.

Mansoor Ijaz, considered to be an Asif Zardari acolyte, purportedly handed over a letter to another Zardari favourite, the current Pakistani envoy to the US, Hussain Haqqani, to hand over the same to the US establishment asking for their assistance to ensure that the Pakistani military does not either take over Pakistan once again or props up some of their political favourites in Pakistan to head the government ousting Asif Zardari and his Pakistan People’s Party government. Tehrik-e-Insaaf Party chief, former cricketer Imran Khan leads the line of current favourites of the Pakistan Army followed by Prime Minister Gilani who will have to break away from his mentor President Zardari to warm up to the Army. Also occasionally mentioned as a likely successor is former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif . Who finally gets Kayani’s nod, if the slide goes the way some people in Pakistan fear, is anyone’s guess.Perhaps it will be Imran Khan, who lately appears to speak the same strident language as the Army does on contentious issues like US-Pak relations, Af-Pak, Kashmir and the ongoing fundamentalism in Pakistan. Perhaps the wily fast bowler has realised that his earlier fiery bouncers at the Pakistan Army must now give way to him batting sedately for the Pakistan Army team!

The “Memogate” pitch has been further queered by former US National Security Adviser Maj Gen James Jones who has gone to the press stating that he delivered the Ijaz memo to Admiral Mike Mullen! Pakistani envoy Haqqani, in the eye of the storm now raging in Pakistan’s political and diplomatic circles, has denied all allegations that he had ever drafted any memo personally or on anyone’s bidding asking for US assistance against his own nation’s Armed Forces. He has been recalled to Islamabad and all stake-holders in the Pakistan hierarchy have met to unravel the conspiracy. What happens in the very near future is still unpredictable. The appointment of another Zardari favourite, Sherry Rehman to the US permits both the Presidency and the Pakistan Army a face saving, albeit uneasy truce. Rumour mills, however, are agog with countless conspiracy theories.

No matter whatever the immediate future befalls Pakistan, that country needs to introspect within to seek a viable destiny for itself. It is today perched precariously on the edge of an abyss and all over the world, adjectives like “failing”, “flailing” and “flawed” are liberally used to describe its current state and likely future. Terrorism, weapons of mass destruction and ever growing fundamentalism even in its Armed Forces go to make an apocalyptic cocktail and thus Pakistan’s future worries the world, in general, and more importantly the neighbourhood especially India, in particular.

Major events in Pakistan do impinge on India and this geographical and politico-cultural reality has prompted successive Indian governments to continuing efforts to improvement in Indo-Pak relations but, to no avail, as Pakistan continues with its myopic, self-destructive anti-India agendas. Thus India will have to be adequately prepared with formidable multi faceted counter-response mechanisms to face any situation occurring out of cataclysmic events in the neighbourhood. India must be aware that whenever conditions deteriorate in Pakistan, its Army-ISI combine may indulge in military or terrorism directed adventurism against India to shore up its slipping power or to deflect the attention of its civil society from its devious agendas within Pakistan.

Pakistan made all the right noises at the recently concluded SAARC deliberations in Maldives vis-à-vis India and now has to ‘walk the talk’. It will only be able to do so if its all-powerful Pakistan Army is on board with the civilian government’s initiatives. “Memogate” appears to have substantially shaken the current Pakistan government and its future will be clear only in the next few weeks. In the ultimate analysis for Pakistan to remain a stable entity, it has to heal itself and adopt a major transformation in its attitudes concerning its duplicity in the war on terror in the region, its Kabul and Kashmir fixations and an anti-India centricity. Importantly, the custodian of all power in Pakistan, the Army-ISI conglomerate must undergo a professional transformation and truly retire to the barracks and give democracy a chance in hapless Pakistan. All in Pakistan and especially in the entire region, particularly India, may wish to note what noted scholar and an avid Pakistan watcher, Seymour Hersh observed a couple of years back that “whatever lies in wait for Pakistan, Talibanization, civil war or worse, it will have grave implications for the world.”     

Lt Gen Kamaleshwar Davar, PVSM, AVSM (Retd) was the first chief of the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA)

The views expressed are personal