Motorbike Militants and Politicking in Afghanistan

Recent events have highlighted the political chaos in Afghanistan - the storming of a prison in Kandahar has the security forces in a scramble, and diplomatic friction with neighbouring Pakistan has the political machinery perplexed. In late April, at an Independence Day function, a resurgent Taliban made its presence when it tried, for the fourth time, to assassinate President Karzai. The Taliban’s inroads back into the arteries of Afghanistan have indeed complicated the security dilemma in the country.

In what was clearly a well-planned assault, on Friday, 13 June, militants on motorbikes freed 870 prisoners from Sarposa prison in the southern province of Kandahar. The move was the second since the bombing of Hotel Serena in Kabul earlier this year – both demonstrate the Taliban’s new fondness for asymmetrical war waging.

The event started with a roadside bomb that killed US marines who were stationed there for training Afghan police. A suicide bombing followed detonating a tanker full of explosives at the prison gate even as a second bomber blasted another escape route through a back wall. Rockets were fired from inside the prison's courtyard. In a rare admission by the NATO coalition forces, the force's Chief Spokesman, Brig. Gen. Carlos Branco conceded the success the militants had had in a thirty-minute operation that freed 390 Taliban militants amongst others.

The incident has impacted Canada’s reconstruction efforts. Canadian forces have been involved in ameliorating the living conditions of inmates of the Sarposa prison, not all of whom are captured Taliban fighters. In September last year, Canada announced a $1.5 million grant for projects at detention centres and prisons in and around Sarposa. Now, the Canadian government insists the Sarposa incident is the result of Afghan incompetence since the responsibility of prison management rests with the government.

The prison break illustrates the lack of governance in the South. A former Taliban toehold, Kandahar has always suffered from a law and order problem and has remained disconnected from the central and northern provinces. Indeed, the recent incident will adversely affect the government’s image in a region where it already faces a trust deficit.

The Sarposa misadventure will also cost the coalition forces dearly, wrecking the morale of an already fragile security force and warranting explanations in home countries for the intelligence failure. Security forces are under fire for mismanagement of a prison that was holding such a large number of Taliban foot soldiers. Though the incident is unlikely to have a larger impact on the military situation in the region, it will add to the power of the Taliban. Although the incident is unlikely to have a broader impact on the military situation in the region, several suicide bombers will rejoin the jihadi ranks.

Indeed, the militants have already showcased their newfound prowess by launching an attack on villages in the Arghandab district of Kandahar on 16 June 2008, only three days after Sarposa. The attack resulted in a counter-offensive by NATO coalition forces who rushed to the villages, rendering civilians homeless. Since then, in an operation to drive Taliban insurgents from the outskirts of Kandahar, troops backed by helicopter gun-ships are patrolling west of the Arghandab River. Taliban spokesman, Qari Yousuf, has issued a statement indicating their determination to stay in Arghandab.

Since the fall of their government in 2001, the Taliban had found it hard to enlist Afghan youth for their cause. This trend is being reversed because of official corruption, gaps in governance, and the presence of foreign troops on Afghan territory. Not surprisingly, the former Afghan Interior Minister Ali Ahmad Jalali ascribes the rise of the Taliban to the weakness in the central administration.

Elsewhere, in a setback for Pak-Afghanistan relations, President Karzai, frustrated by the “safe havens” for Taliban fighters in Pakistan, said he would consider sending troops into Pakistani territory to fight militants. The statement was well received in Afghanistan. But, Pakistan did not take this kindly, declaring that any threat to its sovereignty would be dealt with appropriately, though also conceding that Afghanistan’s security was in its interest.

Complicating matters further, an air strike on Pakistani territory by US forces, allegedly under fire from "anti-Afghan" forces, killed 11 Pakistani troops. The casualties occurred in the mountainous Gora Prai region in Mohmand, one of Pakistan's tribal areas and across the border from Afghanistan's Kunar province. The incident has stoked tensions between Pakistani and American militaries. While the Pakistani military called it a "completely unprovoked and cowardly act”, Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani said, "We will take a stand for the sake of this country's sovereignty … we completely condemn this, and will take it up through the foreign office."

As Pakistani, Afghan, and American troops criticise and blame one another the Taliban stands to gain. Both in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Taliban have taken to asymmetric warfare. The coalition forces’ counter-offensive in the region has proved ineffective. Roadside bombings and suicide attacks are thus bound to be more frequent. With the Pakistan army’s attack on the Taliban in the tribal areas of North West Pakistan end-June, it becomes clear that the army is going all out to combat insurgency. Though the longevity of such action is suspect given Pakistan’s internal problems, the efficacy of a disconnected counter-insurgency strategy is an even bigger problem. Security forces on both sides of the Durand Line and the extended neighbourhood have sporadically succeeded against the Taliban militia, but the latter have crept right back once their attention was diverted to another region or to reconstruction efforts.

In the absence of what the NATO defines as a Spring Offensive, 2008 has seen the worst fighting with the rising insurgency and has also witnessed the first incident of in-fighting amongst allies in the “war on terror”. If not resolved at the earliest, such divisiveness will only encourage Taliban adventurism, spiralling the situation into complete disarray.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies.