The Maldivian Question

Located 300 miles of the southern coast of India and 450 miles southwest of Sri Lanka, this idyllic country, a tourist paradise in the Indian Ocean is yet another victim of Islamic fundamentalism. Internal sleaze by some opposition members including Gayoom, Islamic fundamentalist groups with support of external players, particularly Pakistan and China, has engendered the present unrest and instability in Maldives. The turmoil as expected has allured powers inimical to India to make a fresh bid to gain foothold in this part of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) located strategically astride key maritime routes. 

 

As has been the won’t of most microstates, political instability and coup is not new to Maldives, even as it made transition from monarchy to a republic under Ibrahim Nasir in 1968. Nasir had to eventually flee to Singapore. Even before that in the year 1953 (January 1952 – August 1953) during a brief interruption of the Sultanate and flirtation with Presidential system, President Mohammad Amin Diddi was lynched by a mob due to unpopular policies. Gayoom was also not unchallenged, there were at least three (1980, 1983, 1988) attempted coups to oust him, two of them orchestrated by Nasir. What is unusual and of concern is that the latest coup has strong unpinning of Islamic fundamentalism and the China factor. Nasheed is on record to say that a week before his ouster he was under pressure from Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF) to sign a defence agreement with China. 

 

It is to the credit of the rulers in the country including Gayoom that he did not allow Maldives to be drawn into big power games not even during the Cold War period. The geopolitical scenario however has drastically altered in the recent times. The huge impetus to religious radicalisation of Maldives by Gayoom has spawned rising Islamic fundamentalism. An ascendant China is making forays in the Indian Ocean and would like to wean away Maldives from India’s strategic embrace. An out of power Gayoom is not averse to external leveraging.

 

With the ouster of President Nasheed, on 7 February this year, the country has lapsed into uncertainty. It is the same Nasheed who suffered 27 arrests and six years in jail in his unrelenting campaign for ushering parliamentary democracy and against the autocratic rule of Abdul Gayoom, who in 2008 was Asia’s longest serving leader. There was great jubilation when Mohammad Nasheed was elected as the President in 2008. He was hailed as “Obama”.  

 

Ironically, it was India who responded to the SOS by Gayoom when he was beleaguered by People’s Liberation Organisation of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE) terrorists. The Indian Armed Forces reacted instantly by launching Operation Sandhya and foiled the attempted coup. India acted in its strategic interests both in the geopolitical context of the Indian Ocean region and South Asia. 

 

Maldives acquired greater strategic significance post 9/11 particularly after Mumbai 26/11 as seaborne terrorism was the new reality. There was also a move by extra regional powers like China to seek naval presence in the country, as part of its strategic stretch in the Indian Ocean. 

 

The new strategic imperative was the impetus for India and Maldives to sign a new bilateral pact on security in August 2009. Probably for some detractors of Nasheed, this was one of his major undoings. The coup was allegedly masterminded by the Islamic fundamentalists, Gayoom, rogue elements in the Maldivian security establishment, and anti-India elements and forces. Indications of Chinese and Pakistani involvement are getting increasingly pronounced.

 

The immediate provocation for anti-government protests was the arrest of Justice Abdulla on charges of misconduct and favouring opposition figures. It may be highlighted that Gayoom’s influence in the commercial enterprise, security and administrative establishment as well as judiciary remained overwhelming due to the sheer fact that he strode like a colossus at the helm of Maldivian discourse for three decades. It did not help that in the true spirit of democracy Nasheed as President was not vindictive towards Gayoom. It did not help that he was a liberal and advocated a tolerant form of Islam. It did not help that the press was free and transparent under Nasheed. 

 

 

The islands in Maldives are grouped under 26 atolls, each atoll being an administrative unit. This 820 Km long (north to south) and 120 Km wide (east to west) country with a population little over quarter million, and can be described as a Micro-State. The generally acceptable definition of a micro-state is applied to countries having population of less than one million. There are about 38 such states of which 27 belong to the Commonwealth. 

 

The international system can be divided into Super-Powers, Great-Powers, Regional-Powers, Small-Powers and Micro/Mini-Powers. 

 

Like all micro-states, Maldives has small size, narrow resource base, difficult geographical configuration and relative proximity to big neighbours. Also like other micro-states, it has to interact with the outside world in three concentric circles i.e. Super-Powers, Big-Powers and immediate neighbours in the region. Micro-states are vulnerable both from within and without. Their security dependence has been implicitly accepted by powerful regional neighbours e.g. US in Caribbean, France in Pacific and India in the case of Maldives. 

 

It would be difficult for the new President Mohammad Waheed Hassan or even Gayoom if he were to come to power, to jettison Maldives from India’s strategic partnership, given the complexities and intricacies of regional and global politics. 

Nevertheless in the evolution of Indo-Maldives relations, the drastic changes in religious orientation of Maldives, Islamic terrorism and the new power play in the Indian Ocean have begun to impinge rather heavily. 

 

 

During the recent violence and coup in Maldives, about three dozen exhibits, mostly images of Buddha and Hindu Gods were destroyed by Islamic fundamentalists in the national museum. The new president Waheed said: “We are very sad. This is the physical and archeological evidence of this country. We have nothing to show of the pre-Islamic history.” This repudiation and hatred of non-Islamic past is reminiscent of destruction of the Bamiyan Buddhas by the Taliban. 

 

Traditionally Islam till recently had endured a much different shade in Maldives. Nevertheless it is now seen to be shedding its traditional and cultural moorings. Islamic tenants were superimposed upon Buddhism which can still be discerned.

In the recent years, the opposite trend is however clearly discernable. There is an increasing inroad of Wahhabi Islam in the social and religious discourse of Maldives. The moderate Sunni society is increasingly getting radicalised. The Arabisation of the Maldivian culture is palpable. Beards and Burkas are becoming increasingly visible. The opposition had been constantly accusing ousted President Nasheed for his lack of adherence to Islam and his favourable posturing towards Israel. 

 

There is little hint of moderate Islam in the present religious and the political discourse of Maldives. All religions other than Sunni Islam are forbidden. Alcohol is banned in Male, the capital of Maldives, home to 30 percent of the population. However, in deference to economic compulsions and imperatives, it is not banned in the tourist resorts despite clamour by Islamic fundamentalists. The Islamic fundamentalists have also been demanding ban on direct flights to Israel. 

 

The man responsible for radicalisation of Maldives is none other than Gayoom. His education and upbringing is steeped in religious fundamentalism. He is a graduate of Al Azhar University, Egypt. As a student he got deeply influenced by Syed Qutb, the famous Islamist theorist and leading member of Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. Gayoom later taught Islamic studies in Nigeria. Back in Maldives in 1971, he was President Nasir’s undersecretary and later rose to be the Transport Minister. He protested against Nasir’s recognition of Israel. He assiduously cultivated the image of a pious man. Once he became President, he declared himself by a constitutional provision “Guardian of Islam’ and ‘Supreme Propagator of Islam”.  In 1997 he declared Islam as the state religion.

 

The fact that Islamic fundamentalism has become a substantial feature of Maldivian discourse is reflected by the remark of the new President Waheed: “They are part of the society, you cannot ignore them”. 

 

Religious intolerance in Maldives is getting increasingly pronounced. In 2005, a shop in Male was attacked for displaying a model of Santa Clause. In 2006, Islamists had virtually taken over Himandhoo Island (Alif Alif Atoll) and constructed a new Salafi mosque to propagate neo-conservative Islam. Shariah was imposed on all residents and children were banned from attending local schools on the plea of impure influences from foreign teachers. The situation fortunately was subsequently reversed after the intervention of the state. 

 

In September 2007, 12 tourists i.e. eight Chinese, two Japanese and two British were injured in a blast in Male’s Sultan Park. Two months later, the police alleged that the ten men linked to the explosion were absconding in Pakistan, and had links with the LeT. The police maintained that it was in madrasas of Pakistan that the absconders had learnt the techniques of bomb making. 

 

 

There have been persistent reports about China’s bid to establish a submarine base in Marao, a coral island (40 km south of Male). The reports gained currency following the visit of the then China Premier Zhu Rongji in 2001. The reports mentioned the Chinese design to base nuclear submarines with ballistic missiles. Coral island make fine natural submarine base. There have also been reports that Pakistan has been using the Islamic card with Maldives to provide such facilities to China. 

 

Yet another dimension to strategic significance of Maldives with respect to India emerged with the LeT’s plans to setup a base in the country. Reportedly, there were plans to use deserted islands to build bases and weapon storage facilities from where they could be moved to Kerala and then to the rest of India. 

 

The geo-strategic location of Maldives with regard to Indian Ocean is an imperative that has driven super powers in the past like the Great Britain, the US and the erstwhile USSR to gain foothold in the country. The same imperatives are now driving India, China, Pakistan and Islamic terror groups. 

 

Maldives straddles major maritime arteries and has the potential to be drawn in big power rivalry. During World War-II, the British had established an operational base on Gan Island in southern Adudu Atoll.  In 1974, consequent to a review of British Defence Policy, all British establishments east of Suez were to be liquidated. Accordingly, in 1976 the RAF base at Gan was handed over lock stock and barrel to Maldives.  For Maldives the winding up of the RAF base at Gan did not mean the end of an environment of superpower rivalry in the region. Soon, 600 miles south of Gan, the US established a base at Diego Garcia. After relinquishment of the Gan base by Britain, the USSR made cogent efforts to acquire it in 1977, and offered a monthly rental of US $ 1 million. Though the stated purpose for the Soviet move was to set-up a supply station for its fishing fleet, the actual purpose was to countervail the US base at Diego Garcia. 

 

 

Maldives, so far has faced no external threat in the conventional sense.  Its vulnerability is owing to its size and geographical location in the Indian Ocean, which predisposes it to regional and extra regional strategic machinations. Maldives successfully warded off all attempts by extra regional powers to fill in the vacuum created by the British departure from the Gan Island. Most of the threat so far has been internal in nature given political schisms and difficult geographical framework. With a modest military capability, it is rather difficult to ensure the security of the country and also the EEZ due to spread of its atolls and islands. The Maldivian government therefore has been vulnerable to coups. 

 

Besides, there are other economic and geographical vulnerabilities – the most serious being the problem of global warming, which as per many experts threatens to submerge the country as such.  Given the axis of sea route emanating from the infamous Golden Triangle and burgeoning tourism  – Maldives is vulnerable to illegal drugs and its trafficking.

 

The society in Maldives is homogeneous mixture of people from Sinhalese, Dravidians, Australia-Asian, Arabs and African origin. There is one common language Dhivehi, which has words from Hindi, Arabic and Tamils. Despite the cohesiveness and homogeneity, the country has not been free from internal disorders and secessionist movements. In 1959, three southern atolls declared  independence and a United Suvadian Republic with the combined population of 20,000. The rebellion was subsequently crushed.

 

The excessive dependence on tourism is yet another critical economic vulnerability of Maldives. 33 percent of the country’s GDP comes from tourism. One million tourists visit Maldives every year, which is almost three times the population of the country. Notwithstanding the contribution of tourism in the Maldivian economy, it continues to be vulnerable to nature as well as Islamic fundamentalists. At the behest of the latter, i.e. Islamist parties particularly the Adaalath Party, the government recently shut down spas and health centres at all island resorts, as it was alleged by them that they were operating as brothels. The government orders in this regard were subsequently rescinded due to acute economic and tourism compulsions. 

 

Maldives, as a country is most worried about impact of erosion and global warming, as 80 percent of the country is one metre or less above sea level. Overall Maldives can be described as a success story of South Asia, which has moved from being a very poor country with people living in scattered islands to almost a middle income country.

 

 

India’s relations with Maldives are different in character and content when compared to other South Asian neighbours. Both India and Maldives have defied the difficulties of glaring power disparity in developing a mutually trustworthy relationship between a regional power and a micro-state.

 

A new reality has confronted India with regard to Maldives, i.e. Islamic radicalisation and the prospect of the country being used to target Indian interests on land and sea including Mumbai 26/11 type attacks. The other reality is the aggressive bid by China to secure footholds in the Indian Ocean region. Driven by these realities, India and Maldives signed a bilateral pact in August 2009 during the visit of India’s Defence Minister Mr AK Antony. As per the agreement, the two countries agreed to bolster defence cooperation and fortify the security of Maldives. The Indian Navy is to assist the Maldivian security forces in monitoring and safeguarding of the country’s vast EEZ. The Indian Navy and Coast Guard vessels will patrol pirate infested waters around Maldives. India’s BEL is setting up radars on all the 26 atolls of Maldives, which will be linked to the Indian coastal command. In October 2011, the Indian Navy based a Dornier aircraft to carry out surveillance of EEZ and anti-piracy vigil. Since 2009, India has been sending warships or naval aircraft to perform security roles for Maldives. It may be recalled that India transferred a fast-attack aircraft INS Tillanchang to the Maldivian Coast Guard in the year 2006. Speaking in the naval commanders conference, Mr A K Anthony said: “The Indian Navy has been mandated to be a net provider to the island nations in the Indian Ocean---.”

 

 

While the foreign policy and defence establishment have displayed great sensitivity about the strategic imperatives of India in respect to Maldives and have acted timely and appropriately, the same cannot be said about the Indian intelligence establishment. The charter of India’s external agency not only involves providing information and intelligence but more importantly to safeguard friendly regimes from powers inimical to India. The coup is a success of the agencies of inimical powers. 

 

 

Views expressed are personal