Balochistan: Ominous Portents Ahead

On 8 February 2012, a Congressional hearing chaired by US Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (Republican-California), devoted exclusively to discussing the “issue of Balochistan,” roundly castigated Pakistan’s appalling human rights violations in Balochistan. The hearing further muddied the already troubled relationship between the United States and Pakistan though the US State Department officially distanced itself from the congressional hearing and opposed the idea of an independent Balochistan. Predictably, the Pakistani government took it as an affront to Pakistan’s national integrity and an unwarranted interference in its internal affairs. And equally predictably, the Baloch people welcomed the development as being supportive of their claim to a status as a separate nation deserving of an independent homeland.

Pakistan is suffering from multiple fault lines, the most serious being combating insurgency in its restive provinces and fixing its fragile economy. The ongoing insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) and Balochistan has already stretched the Pakistan Army and other elements of its security agencies to the limits. Added to that is the restiveness now manifesting itself in Pakistan occupied Gilgit-Baltistan. This Shia majority area with a population of just over 2 million people has always lived in harmony with the minority Sunnis but with an increasing restive population, the area is likely to get embroiled in serious militancy. The recent killing of Shia bus passengers by Punjab based Sunni Taliban groups on 28 February 2012 could result in serious fissures developing between the two communities. The bus was stopped near the town of Harban in Kohistan district and all 25 passengers were disembarked. Thereafter, 16 Shia passengers who were travelling in the bus were identified as Shia and then shot in cold blood.  

Pakistan’s Army, while being a competent conventional force is unlikely to make a serious dent against the various Pakistan based militant groups. The foremost reason remains the commitment of Pakistan’s military to treat some of these militant groups as its strategic assets against India. But the operations undertaken so far by Pakistan’s military against militants in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have also not been conducted in a manner to inspire confidence in the Pakistan military’s capability to resolve the issue through the use of force. Also, fissures within Pakistan’s military on how to deal with the militants is a dampener to effective military action. More and more it is becoming evident that the Pakistan Army lacks both the will and the capability to satisfactorily resolve conflict in its provinces.  

The issue of greatest concern however, in the eyes of most Pakistani’s is the situation in Balochistan. Control by the state appears to be slipping as a result of misdirected policies emanating both from Islamabad and Pindi. Since the brutal murder of Balochistan’s revered tribal leader Nawab Akbar Bugti in August 2006, the situation in Balochistan has consistently deteriorated. The resentment is deep seated essentially because despite its abundance of natural resources, Balochistan remains the most backward province of the country. There is a strong underlying bitterness in this province against what is seen as continued “Punjabi dominance” and inequitable distribution of power and resources.

That Balochistan is the issue of greatest concern in Pakistan’s strategic and military thinking is evidenced by the fact that Pakistan’s former President has chosen to comment on the situation in Balochistan. In his article published in ‘The News International’, on 14 and 15 March 2012, Musharraf writes that ‘It is painful to see what is happening in Balochistan. It is more painful to see accusations being made against the army or the Frontier Corps (FC), Balochistan, or even me, that we were the cause of the problem’.

Why is Musharraf commenting on the situation in Balochistan and not about what is happening elsewhere in Pakistan? The situation is no less grave in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and is getting potentially unstable in Pakistan occupied Gilgit-Baltistan.  The concern obviously stems from the fact that for the first time, many in Pakistan feel that Balochistan could secede from the state. Even though the US administration has publicly declared their support for the unity and integrity of Pakistan, the very fact that Balochistan was debated in a US Congressional Committee and aspersions were cast on human rights violations sends a signal that the US could be amenable to the idea of an independent Balochistan. Strategically, this will undercut China’s influence in the region and also provide to the US an independent access to Afghanistan without having to depend on Pakistan’s support. While neither the United States nor India will encourage a breakup of Pakistan, the brutal suppression of the Baloch people by the Pakistani military could propel the people of Balochistan towards that course.
 
Musharraf boasts of the work he did as Pakistan’s President in Balochistan. This essentially was construction of the Gwadar Port and construction of roads and pipelines mostly to benefit the extraction and removal of the resources in the region. However, he is silent on why none of the said resources were used for the benefit of the local people.  By viewing any approach made to the people of Balochistan as ‘appeasement’ and referring to people opposed to the central government as anti national, Pakistan’s former President simply reveals the mindset of the military which seeks to retain control by the use of brutal force. He goes on to state that ‘as long as the armed forces are as strong as they are, Pakistan can never become a banana republic. All Pakistanis must rise as one for the integrity of our motherland’. The sentiment is noble. But Pakistan’s leadership should not forget military history. 

In 1971, Pakistan resorted to the use of military force to resolve a political problem with its East Wing. This led to the breakup of the country.  Pakistan is once again failing to address the challenges of governance in a state with multiple ethnic, linguistic and parochial divisions. The real test of a leadership in fissiparous societies always lies in how it brings together the diverse communities into a larger integrated national entity and how diligently it handles domestic discontent or unrest rooted in despair and disillusionment among its own people. Unless the genuine concerns of the people of Balochistan are met, this province too could well head the way of Pakistan’s former East Wing. And it would have none to blame but itself.

Maj Gen Dhruv Katoch (Retd) is Additional Director, CLAWS

Views expressed are personal