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General Deepak Kapoor, PVSM, AVSM, SM, VSM, ADC, Chief of Army Staff
INTRODUCTION
1. It is indeed a great pleasure for me to address such an august
gathering of security experts and to share thoughts and perceptions on
the `Changing Global Security Environment with Specific Reference to
Our Region and its Impact on the Indian Army'.
2. Let me begin by flagging the changing geo-strategic environment.
The gradual but distinctly discernible shift towards multi-polarity in
power equations and the shift in global Centre of Gravity to Asia are
the most distinct features of this change. Past experience shows that
major shifts in power equations create volatility in the international
order, even though the period of instability may be relatively
short-lived.
3. Interestingly, much of the qualitative re-arrangement of power now
underway is not attributed to military capabilities or 'hard power',
but to a factor unique to the modern world: rapid economic growth and
the related quest for growing energy security. The power shifts
towards Asia can be linked to its phenomenal economic rise. The rise
of China, as also India, in the global economic arena is the most
visible manifestations of the forces of globalisation, which are also
resulting in a number of related socio-economic and security
challenges within the region. On the other side, it is also a fact
that the fountainhead of global and regional terrorism also lies in
this region.
4. How does all this impact India? While developments in the field of
economy, information technology and overall consolidation of our
comprehensive national power have put India on the growth path, our
internal security environment is yet to stabilise and is often
exploited by external inimical forces, through asymmetrical means.
However, these challenges and contradictions notwithstanding, India's
inherent strengths and credentials make it an important pillar of
stability in the emerging world order. The Armed Forces, being an
important constituent of India's Comprehensive National Power, need to
keep pace with the emerging trends and challenges and work in concert
with other elements of national power to ensure India's rightful place
in the emerging regional and global arena.
5. I shall be covering my talk under the following broad heads: (a)
Global and Regional Security Environment; (b) Impact on the Indian
Army; (c) Future Perspectives and Challenges.
Part I - Global and Regional Security Environment
Drivers Shaping the Global Security Environment
6. Let us take a look at the major trends emerging in the global and
regional security environment:
(a) Globalisation. The spiralling inflationary trends, soaring oil
prices, fear of food shortages and upheavals in the financial markets
driven by global cues, reinforce the fact that no Nation today can
remain insulated from events related to economic and security trends -
in any corner of the globe. The intertwining of economies, as a
consequence of globalisation, has resulted in geo-economics
supplanting geo-politics. It would be debatable, however, to believe
that greater economic interdependence alone would lead to improved
geo-political stability. While the benefits of increased global
connectivity and technological advances are enormous, its negativities
in terms of increasing social and economic disparities, which can be
exploited by inimical elements, need to be taken note of. There is
also a fear that the ill effects of globalisation could reinforce
tendencies towards competitive `Protectionism' and regionalism.
(b) International Terrorism. The rise of international terrorism
indeed shows that the information age is both an integrating and a
dividing force. Terrorism remains the principal challenge to liberal
and democratic societies and now occupies centre stage in the
international security matrix. The scourge of terrorism will continue
to invite the focus of global attention in the foreseeable future,
which will require earnest international cooperation to deal with it
effectively.
(c) Proliferation of WMD. The efforts of various renegade state
and non-state actors to gain access to WMD have highlighted the
dangers of proliferation of WMD material and their delivery means,
especially if it reaches the hands of terrorists. India remains as
concerned on this count as the other global powers.
(d) Energy Security. The quest for control of energy resources of
West Asia and search for alternate routes for trans-shipment of oil
and gas from the Caspian Region has brought the West and Central Asian
Regions under sharp focus, thereby enhancing the chances of
competition and potential conflict. It is no coincidence that most of
the ongoing conflicts are centred in and around regions that are rich
in energy resources.
(e) Undermining of the UN. In the recent past, we have also
witnessed increased undermining of the UN in providing the lead role
for resolution of conflicts and stabilisation. There is an urgent need
to re-structure the UN for it to remain relevant to the emerging
realities. The reality is that the five unelected yet permanent
members of the Security Council need to share executive authority with
new and emerging powers; India being amongst the most prominent.
(f) Radicalisation in the Islamic World. Wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan combined with lack of progress in resolving the
Palestinian problem are causing an increasing cross-current of
disaffection resulting in radicalisation within the Islamic world and
isolation of moderate forces. Relatively, a large yet benign Muslim
population has added to India's strengths.
(g) Changing Nature of Conflicts. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
appear to be at critical crossroads, and their outcomes will have a
major bearing on future security contours of our region, in particular
and the world, in general. These wars, and the one in Lebanon in July
- August 2006, have thrown up new political and sectarian equations
and emphasised once again that the era of "all out wars" is slowly
being replaced by "war by other means" - unconventional, asymmetrical
and across a wide range in the spectrum of conflict. We, in the Army,
are alive to this transition to Fourth Generation Warfare.
Regional Trends and Security Concerns
7. I will now touch upon the contours of our regional trends and
security concerns.
8. West Asia. West Asia remains one of the most unstable, conflict
prone and volatile regions of the world. The region, being a major
source of hydro-carbon energy, will continue to invite engagement by
major world powers. Further, till a just and acceptable solution is
found to the problem of Palestine, this region has the potential to
remain a source of conflict. Stability and security in the Gulf region
is therefore critical to India as it has an impact on India's economy
as well as on safety of a large Indian Diaspora.
9. Central Asian Region. The Central Asian Region has witnessed
increased engagement by the US, China and Russia owing to the
availability of hydro-carbon reserves. Moreover, the countries of this
region, all of which broke away from the erstwhile Soviet Union, are
fledgling economies and have nascent governing structures, thus making
them potential sources of conflict. The Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation (SCO), which has China, Russia and four of the Central
Asian Republics as its members, is reflective of emerging power equations.
10. South East Asian Region. The enhanced economic strength of ASEAN
countries and the importance of the region, especially the Straits of
Malacca for transit of global trade and energy, have resulted in India
actively pursuing its `Look East Policy'. We not only share common
cultural heritage with the South East Asian nations but also share
common concerns on a range of security challenges like terrorism,
religious radicalism, gun running, drugs, piracy and illegal immigration.
11. Afghanistan. The outcome of substantial reconstruction efforts in
Afghanistan to bring this country into International mainstream, in
the long run, will have a profound effect on the global security
matrix. The situation remains critical, as the Taliban continue to
strengthen its ranks and step up attempts to disrupt the
reconstruction process. India has major security interests in
Afghanistan and its stabilisation is in our interest.
12. China. China, our largest and most powerful neighbour, and a
rapidly rising power, continues on the path of high economic growth,
combined with rapid military modernisation. We have differences
related to the boundary question, which are being resolved by special
representatives of both the governments. Our mutual economic
engagements and continued efforts to amicably resolve this boundary
issue have ensured peace along the border. Regular visits at the
highest level have further added to the dimension of constructive
engagement and mutual confidence in our relationship. However, we need
to take note of the likely implication of China's military
modernisation, improvement of infrastructure in the Tibet Autonomous
Region and other related issues, which could impact our security in
the long term.
13. Pakistan. The situation in Pakistan is fluid. The recent elections
have restored a democratic polity, which is hard pressed to restore
security and stability to the country, in the face of complex
challenges. Various contradictions in the Pak social political fabric,
power struggles between the polity and the President, and the
fragility of institutions like the judiciary and educational
infrastructure are likely to occupy centre stage for sometime. The new
approach by Gen Kayani, the Pakistan COAS, to reduce the direct role
of the Army in governance mechanisms appears to be an endeavour to
consolidate and restore the Army's declining image. I feel the biggest
challenge faced by the Pakistan government is to moderate the largely
radicalised sections.
14. Our Immediate Neighbours. Almost all the other countries in our
immediate neighbourhood are undergoing varying forms of instability.
Nepal has transited into a Republic, ending the 240 year old monarchy.
Future portents for peace and stability in Nepal depend on the
approach of the new dispensation to governance. The radicalisation of
the domestic environment in Bangladesh, continuous inflow of illegal
immigrants to our North East and escalation of violence in Sri Lanka
are issues of concern to us. Keeping Myanmar engaged, due to security
and economic reasons, is important to us. The emergent humanitarian
effort undertaken during the recent cyclone is reflective of our
relationship. Maldives is stable; however, recent incidents indicate a
potential for instability. Bhutan is transiting peacefully from
hereditary monarchy to democratic governance. However, the unresolved
Bhupalese problem could destabilise the region. All this calls for
keeping a continuous watch on happenings around our immediate
neighbourhood, and ensuring that there are no adverse spill over effects.
Threat Perspective
15. External Threats. The threats and challenges that we face in the
emerging environment are multifarious. India shares 3323 km of land
borders with Pakistan and 3488 km with China. The situation along our
borders with China and Pakistan has witnessed periods of calm
interspersed with hostilities. While there are other areas of concern
that may pose threats to our security, the existing reality of borders
issues will continue to remain an important factor in our consideration.
16. Spill- over Effects from Other Neighbouring Countries. We have
very strong and traditional ties with all our neighbouring countries.
However, some of these are afflicted by internal security problems,
which owing to trans-border ethnic affinities have the potential to
spill over into our country. The 2007 index of poorly performing
states released by the 'US Foreign Policy Magazine' continues to place
some of India's neighbours high on the list. Illegal immigration from
these countries also remains a serious cause of concern.
17. Indian Ocean Region. The Indian Ocean Region (lOR) has assumed
greater importance in view of the increased maritime activity. India
has approximately 1200 island territories off its Western and Eastern
seaboards. Some of these are up to 1300 km from the mainland. As you
are aware, 70 percent of the world's oil, 33 percent of global trade
and 50 percent of world's container traffic passes through the IOR.
The region, therefore, has importance not only for India but also for
the other major economies of the world. In this regard, security of
the SLOC assumes importance, because of our geo-strategic location.
Protection of island territories located far away from the main land,
and offshore assets, also assumes added significance.
India's Internal Security Dimensions
18. Internal Security Environment. Indian society is made up of
diverse ethnic groups, cultures, languages and religious
denominations. These are both strength and a challenge. Although
India's national integrity remains fundamentally secure, we do have
some challenges emerging from the social and economic disparities
amongst the cross section of our society. Religious fundamentalism is
also an area of concern.
19. Jammu & Kashmir. The overall situation in J&K is well under
control of the security forces and is showing distinct signs of
improvement. Our endeavour is to ensure that the 'moral ascendancy'
gained by the Army is maintained and the situation in J & K improves
further. Our strategy of 'Iron Fist and Velvet Glove' is paying rich
dividends. Our focus is on conduct of surgical and professional
operations based on hard intelligence, causing minimum inconvenience
to the local populace. Upholding Human Rights is one of the corner
stones of our Anti Terrorist operations and our record is worth
emulating. The groundswell for peace indicates that the people are fed
up with violence and are seeking a peaceful return to normalcy.
Violence levels have seen a sharp decline as compared to the
corresponding Period of 2007. This can largely be attributed to an
effective Counter Terrorism Grid in the hinterland. The surge in
tourism and other normalcy indicators are a manifestation of the
aspirations of the common Kashmiri people for a peaceful and
prosperous life. The elections to the State Assembly scheduled later
this year will be an important benchmark in J&K's return to normalcy.
20. North East. Owing to the relentless efforts of the Security
Forces, the security situation in the North Eastern States of the
country has shown a significant improvement in the past few months.
Most parts of the region today are free of violence and normalcy has
been restored. The peaceful conduct of elections in Meghalaya,
Nagaland and Tripura, with a very high voter turnout, is indicative of
the substantial progress towards normalcy in the region. Popularly
elected democratic governments are in power in all States. The pace of
development activities and tourism is gathering momentum, which is an
encouraging sign. Sustained operational pressure and persuasion by the
Security Forces has resulted in large number of terrorists
surrendering along with their weapons to various agencies. Overall, we
see that more and more groups are entering into a 'Suspension of
Operations' agreement with the Government, which is a very positive
development.
21. Naxalism. In the larger Internal Security Construct, Naxal
violence poses a major challenge. The Army is taking a close and
careful look at the various trends and developments. Consequently, we
have been instrumental in strengthening Police and Para Military
Forces like the CRPF, PAC and Reserve Police Battalions across the
States by providing advice and training in Counter Naxal Operations,
Counter lED Operations and "Training of Trainers". We are rendering
assistance in the establishment of Counter Terrorism Schools and in
the analysis of violent incidents to help the police and the PMF to
formulate an operational framework. The Army however, maintains that
this being a socio economic problem, it needs to be dealt by the
states using the Police and Paramilitary Forces.
Part II - Impact on the Indian Army
22. General. How do these factors impact the future contours of the
Indian Army as also our operational philosophy? The array of emerging
global and regional complexities enjoin upon India to develop matching
military capabilities in keeping with its growing economic and
technological status, so as to ensure a continued stable and peaceful
environment. Before I dwell upon the future shape, areas of thrust and
the challenges we face in attaining the desired vision for the Army,
let me touch upon some cardinals of our National Security Policy, the
Fundamental Determinants of our Military Structure and the Present
Profile of the Indian Army.
23. Cardinals of Our Security Policy. Our national security policy is
based on TWO cardinal principles, i.e.: (a) We have no extra
territorial ambitions, and b) We have no ambition to transplant our
ideology on others.
24. Fundamental Determinants of Indian Military Structure. Before
introspecting on the current perspective, I wish to highlight the
fundamental determinants of the Indian Military structure, which are:
(a) The Indian Armed Forces have multi front obligations.
(b) India is not a member of any military alliance or strategic
grouping. Therefore, it needs to maintain an independent deterrence
capability.
(c) Due to external abetment, the Indian Army is involved in
internal security functions on a relatively larger scale than is normal.
25. Present Profile of the Indian Army. Though the Indian Army is
undergoing steady modernisation, the present profile of over ONE
million strong Indian Army can essentially be described as:
(a) A large standing army which is structured, equipped and
trained primarily for traditional methods of warfare - a combination
of a deliberate as well as a manoeuvrist approach across the
spectrum of conflict, ranging from sub conventional warfare at the
lower end to all out war against a Nuclear backdrop at the higher end.
We are in the process of transforming our war fighting doctrines and
concepts in keeping with the emerging challenges.
(b) The Indian Army has been involved in sub conventional
operations for the past 50 years, more so, high intensity operations
in the last two decades. This has provided the bulk of the Army with
rich combat experience in the conduct of such operations.
(c) Equipping a large standing army with such varied challenges is
a difficult and dynamic process. Our equipment profile is a varied mix
of vintage, contemporary and futuristic technologies. We normally work
on a 30:40:30 concept, though in certain high tech areas, where the
pace of change is rapid, these ratios could vary.
(d) There are some voids in organisation and equipment, which is
but natural in a large standing Army, but these are under constant
review. It is our endeavour to ensure that 'Minimum Assurance Levels'
are always held and maintained.
(e) The three Services have made a good start towards achieving
jointness in various operational, training and administrative facets.
The structures are already in place for joint intelligence, planning
and conduct of operations at the highest level. Requisite interaction
exists to make us confident of undertaking 'joint' operations
successfully.
(f) The Indian Army has contributed in substantial measure to UN
peacekeeping missions worldwide, and has acquired an enviable
reputation for professionalism mixed with compassion. Presently we
have around 8000 peacekeepers from the Army on duty worldwide with the
UN and this contribution will only grow in the future.
(g) The Army remains one of the best organised, structured,
equipped and disciplined organisations to react both to natural and
man made disasters. Our record in this field has been well appreciated
both within and outside the country - our concept being "First
Responders - Last Resort".
26. Based on the aspects that I have outlined, I will now state the
vision that we have spelt out for the future contours of the Indian Army.
Part III - Future Perspective and Challenges
Indian Army Vision
27. My Vision is "To consolidate the Army into a highly motivated,
optimally equipped and modernised, operationally ready force, capable
of functioning in a synergised joint service environment, across the
spectrum of conflict".
Contours of Future Conflict
28. Future conflicts, against a nuclear backdrop, are likely to take
anyone or combination of the following forms, for which we need to
shape our Army accordingly:
a) Conflicts across the entire spectrum of military operations, to
include Low Intensity Conflict Operations.
b) Asymmetric Warfare, to include unrestricted warfare, encompassing a
wide arena of networks and systems.
c) Dealing with spill-over effects of instability and violence in
neighbouring countries, including the Indian Ocean Region, which
mandates an 'Out of Area Contingency Capability'.
Capability Generation
29. Given the present security scenario, the future contours of the
Army need to be based on a number of capabilities. Broadly, these are:
(a) Deterrence Capability. A strong conventional deterrence backed
by an appropriate strategic capability, to deter any potential
adversary from undertaking inimical activities or initiating
hostilities against India.
(b) War Fighting Capability. To cater for the possibility of
failure of deterrence, the Army needs to possess the capability for
calibrated response, as also the capability to prosecute decisive
conventional operations against a nuclear backdrop.
(c) LICO Capability. The Army should possess the requisite
capability to be able to effectively deal with internal conflict
situations, such as externally abetted 'proxy war', insurgency and
militancy, in coordination with civil agencies mandated for this purpose.
(d) Force Projection Capability. In keeping with our growing
regional aspirations, we need to possess capabilities to deploy the
land component of a joint task force for out of area operations, when
mandated.
(e) Peacekeeping Capability. As mentioned earlier, the Army needs
to possess capabilities to fulfil international peacekeeping
obligations, under the UN mandate, preferably in areas of our
strategic interest. Keeping in view our growing stature and reputation
in UNPKO, demands for enhanced participation are likely to increase.
Areas of Special Focus
30. Doctrines and Concepts. Up gradation of our operational doctrines
has been undertaken to ensure that our war fighting machinery is
compatible with the futuristic battlefield scenario. The Indian Army's
doctrine for sub conventional operations, which was released in
January last year, elucidates the latest security dynamics along with
our collective wisdom and experience of over five decades in these
types of operations. The doctrine is in the open domain and available
on the Internet.
31. Harnessing Technology. Technology has to be increasingly harnessed
and exploited to the optimum so as to have a well balanced weapons and
equipment profile. Further, the focus of modernisation has been to
absorb emerging technologies, to keep pace with the 'Revolution in
Military Affairs'. Phasing out of obsolete equipment and implementing
high degree of technological modernisation are achieving the same. We
have acquired and are in the process of acquiring - state of the art
surveillance and intelligence equipment, accurate and lethal long
range firing systems, up-graded night fighting capabilities, Future
Infantry Soldier as a System (F-INSAS) for infantry, Advanced Light
Helicopter (including Weapons System Integrated version) and battle
field management systems with the aim of achieving 'network -
centricity'. Exploitation of space-based capabilities is another
priority area.
32. Dealing with Asymmetric Threats. Over the past decade, various
states as well as non-state actors have continued to find ways and
means to develop asymmetric warfare capabilities, to be applied
against us. Countering asymmetric threats is an area of high priority
for our Army, and we are developing a more advanced capacity in this
regard. We have to remain one step ahead of this elusive adversary,
and that's easier said than done.
33. Special Operations. For specialised tasks and critical
contingencies, we are endeavouring to build desired capabilities in
our Special Forces.
34. Defence Cooperation. Military to military cooperation between
India and other friendly countries has helped in not only
familiarising with available technologies and best practices, but has
also enhanced mutual trust and interoperability with these countries.
This is also the basis for addressing shared concerns over threats
like terrorism, extremism and militancy. Defence cooperation with
countries in the immediate and strategic neighbourhood is an area of
priority focus for the Indian Army.
Future Challenges
35. While we have laid out a pragmatic vision of the shape and size of
the Army in the long-term perspective, there are a number of
challenges that need to be met to develop and maintain a ready and
relevant Army for the 21st century.
36. Defence Budgetary Needs. Like any other developing nation, there
is always a competition for the financial pie. The Nation has to
balance its budget for its security and developmental needs - the
classical 'guns vs. butter' debate. Though the defence budget for
2008-09 is ten percent more than the previous year's allocation, an
analysis reveals that for the first time, since the India-China War of
1962, it has fallen below two percent of the Gross Domestic Product
(GDP). There has been a persistent decline over the years from 3.38
percent in 1987-88 to 1.98 percent today - much below the global
average. In order to develop desired Force Capabilities, the military
planner is therefore confronted with the dilemma of improving the
Capital vs. Revenue ratio. This requires simultaneous rightsizing with
induction of State of the Art weapons and equipment. In order to meet
these twin objectives and enhance the assurance of the requisite
capabilities, we are focused on indigenisation and the collaborative
approach but without compromising on our operational capabilities.
37. Restructuring and Rightsizing. The emerging operational
environment and the ongoing process of modernisation in the Army calls
for re-structuring and• rightsizing of the Army. The challenges that
we face in this regard are two fold; firstly, evolving the requisite
structures to operate in a joint environment with the other two
Services, with least possible turbulence; and secondly, attain the
optimum size of the Army without impinging on the manpower intensive
requirements of manning unresolved borders and operating in Low
Intensity Conflicts. I must mention here that recent conflicts - those
ongoing in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the 'Israel-Lebanon' War, have
reiterated the necessity of 'Boots on the Ground'. Hence, we are going
about the aspect of rightsizing in a very deliberate and pragmatic manner.
38. Modernisation and Development of Human Resource. Rapidly changing
technology means that the systems get obsolete faster. The Indian Army
needs to remain 'contemporary' by imbibing 'affordable' technology.
While we may get all the technology and resources to attain the
desired force goals, we will need to upgrade the threshold level of
the soldiers and leaders to handle these systems, and enmesh them to
operate with other Services as also armed forces of other countries.
We have incorporated appropriate institutional mechanisms to address
this aspect and minimise the mismatch between man and machine.
Training methods are also being reoriented to ensure better
exploitation of modem equipment and technology.
39. Multi Spectrum Orientation Challenges. The Army has to be prepared
to perform multi-operational tasks simultaneously. We have to remain
prepared to fight a conventional war, while continuing to deploy large
numbers for guarding the borders, counter proxy war operations and
providing troops to UN missions, all at the same time. The ability to
reorient, operate and switch over from one band of the spectrum of
conflict to another, in a quick time frame, is a major challenge that
the Army is preparing for.
40. Jointness. Let me take this opportunity to reiterate the Army's
commitment to jointmanship. We are fully seized of the critical need
to implement jointmanship for optimising our war-fighting potential,
in keeping with our security needs. As I have mentioned earlier, we
have made good progress towards accomplishing jointness in various
facets. However, new geo-strategic imperatives, technology and the
changing nature of conflict, call upon us, to enhance the levels of
jointness even further. There is ample scope for enhancement of Inter
Service cooperation and integration, in related areas of congruence,
by optimizing our force capabilities in the technological realm and by
synthesizing resources and efforts of the three Services. Overall, the
Army stands fully committed to jointness and optimum synergy in the
future.
41. Leadership Challenges. In the future, battlefields are likely to
be marked by very high degree of volatility, uncertainty and
complexity. The Army is consciously working towards sharpening the
core professional competencies of its leaders to enable them to
operate dynamically against increasingly ingenuous and elusive
threats. Operational Art is a key focus area for the senior leaders as
is the ability to orchestrate change, one step ahead of an emerging
challenge.
Conclusion
42. The 21st Century certainly promises to be momentous for the nation
in many ways. Despite the turbulent times and the region that we live
in, our democratic credentials remain strong and our economy has shown
resilience. The potential rise of India as a major power would require
development of all elements of National Power, to secure our interests
and enable us to play a more effective role in the regional and global
arena. Not only should the country be ever prepared to meet external
challenges from its traditional adversaries but also it must continue
to retain strategic autonomy in decision-making. The Army, as part of
the defence forces, comprises an important component of India's
comprehensive national power and has always responded to every
challenge successfully. It will be my endeavour to ensure that the
Army remains not only ready but also relevant to today's needs and the
anticipated challenges of the future.
Thank you
(Courtesy: IDSA National Security Lecture Series, Julu 3, 2008) Link: http://www.idsa.in/speeches_at_idsa/NationalSecurityLectureDeepakKapoor030708.htm
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies.
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