$100bn and rising, China�s official defence spending

The announcement of China's plan to boost its defence spending to 11.2% in 2012 implies that military spending shall cross the $100 billion mark for the first time to approximately 670 billion yuan ($106.4 billion). While speaking a day ahead of the annual meeting of the National People's Congress (NPC), which is the highest governmental body in the People's Republic of China, the spokesman of the NPC, Li Zhaoxing, stated, "The Chinese government has maintained reasonable and appropriate growth of defence spending on the strength of rapid economic and social development and the steady increase of fiscal revenues." The initiative of the government to provide incentives over the past two years has benefited China's defence industry immensely. Thus, notwithstanding the economic pressures, military modernisation plans are likely to be carried forward with intensity since China has invested heavily in military technologies of the future.

China's economic growth has provided it with the option to maintain a high and steady spending on the military. However, the opacity that envelops China's military matters only tends to increase the apprehension of nations in China's neighbourhood and beyond. A plausible interpretation stemming out from analysing China's power projection capabilities adds credence to the debate over Beijing's long-term objectives towards reinforcing its territorial and maritime claims.

China boasts of the world's second highest military budget following the United States. According to estimates, Chinese defence budgetary investments will race ahead at 18.75%, likely touching $238.2 billion by 2015. This would exceed the combined spending of all other key defence budgets in the Asia-Pacific region, thus reaching around four times Japan's defence budget, the region's next biggest spender. However, according to China's state-owned People's Daily, China's total military budget is way lower than 30% of the Asian total, while the growth does not suggest real deterrence capability.

According to Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Osamu Fujimura, Japan is "closely watching" China's military spending. In fact, Tokyo has long demanded greater military transparency in its outlays from Beijing, more so since both nations contest control over the Senkaku, or Diaoyu islands. In this regard, Japan's 2011 annual defence white paper highlighted, "China does not disclose a clear, specific future vision of its military modernization." Putting forth the Chinese viewpoint, a recent commentary in People's Daily stated, "If China repeated Japan's aggressive approach of a century ago, Asia would look very different..."

What raises suspicion regarding the future intent of Chinese military and its ensuing posturing, is its refusal to disclose specific information on possession of weapons and armoury, procurement goals and a detailed breakdown of the national defence budget/spending. China's budget figures announced annually includes support for military veterans, but does not take account of certain very critical items including research and development, foreign arms purchases and cyber warfare and space capabilities. This leads to a deduction that real time figures are much higher than what Beijing officially reports.

This year's defence budget hike by China can also be read in connection to the recent reorientation of the Obama administration's Asia-Pacific policy as it declared a "strategic pivot" in the region. The People's Daily has chosen to attribute growth of Asian military budgets to the "US' return to Asia" which "has created a disturbance in China and neighbouring countries..." It would only be imperative that Beijing explains its continuing military build-up backed by an exponential rise in defence spending in real and absolute terms over the past two decades, especially with defence spending more than double since 2006. The continuing Chinese assertion that it takes a "non-confrontational approach in the region" and that "China's limited military strength is aimed at safeguarding sovereignty, national security and territorial integrity" appears contradictory to the military strides being undertaken by the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

As China seeks greater control of sea lanes off its coast, the Sino-US strategic contest in the region is likely to continue unabated, with President Obama declaring in November 2011 that American military interests in the Asia-Pacific region would be immune from cuts in the Pentagon's budget.

China has worked towards stretching the parameters of its science and technology base in the backdrop of sustained economic development, which in turn, has served as the foundation for Beijing's military modernisation programme as propounded by Deng Xiaoping. While the PLA has assimilated vigorous investments in sectors of military hardware and technology, the focus of the present decade would likely be towards the systemic integration of these complex operational platforms. If China's integration into the global economy and the region comes in as an initial respite, the uncertainty over its military and strategic intentions coupled with its ever-increasing investments in military capabilities could well depose any/all regional and global calculations.

Dr. Monika Chansoria is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi

Courtesy: The Sunday Guardian, 18 March 2012

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/100bn-and-rising-chinas-official-defence-spending