Euphoria sans logic

There were jubilations galore in India when US announced the $10 million bounty on Hafiz Saeed. The media went in a tizzy with headlines declaring “India’s Stand Vindicated”. There was much speculation about the timing of the announcement. Press statements were promptly issued by the Foreign Minister and Home Minister. Some mandarins suggested this is the time to ask Pakistan to hand over Hafiz Saeed.

The illusions of our not so strategic bounty hunters forbids them to understand that the said announcement by the US has everything to do with US national interests, little to do with India and any effect on India is merely incidental. There is no cause to be euphoric and bow in gratitude to Uncle Sam.    

Post 9/11, when the US launched the so called Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), it actually was a US War on Terrorism (USWOT) against Al Qaeda that threatened US national interests including threat of more terror strikes on US mainland. By no yardstick could it be termed ‘global’. The LeT, spawned and nurtured by the rabid mullah Hafiz Saeed, had already been attacking India for the past decade. Yet, the terror flow from Pakistan into India was ignored by the US aside from sporadic statements of sympathy whenever a major terrorist attack hit India. Even terror related intelligence shared by US with India was selective or delayed where the finger pointed directly at Pakistan.

LeT, covert arm of ISI, was raised to basically spread terror in India and did not concern US much. The US only started to take note of the LeT in recent years when the call of LeT cadres changed from ‘jihad against India’ to ‘global jihad’ and they started filling up the voids in Al Qaeda cadres caused due to US/NATO action, mainly drone attacks. Not only is the LeT the covert arm of the ISI, the Nelson eye of the US over the past decade helped it expand into an international organization, as dangerous as Al Qaeda with direct links to Al Qaeda, Taliban, HuM, Huji, LeJ, JeM and JuD in Pakistan aside from patronizing Haqqanis and Dawood Ibrahim, Maoists and PFI in India, and Bangladesh terrorist organizations of AHAB, Huji BD, JMB and JMJB. LeT tentacles have already spread to India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Australia, Singapore, Maldives, UAE, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, France and USA.

 The US announcement of bounty on Hafiz Saeed possibly comes now due to:

• Indications that reopening of NATO supply routes via Pakistan may not come through easily coupled with further stabilization of the northern supply route for US troops in Afghanistan in conjunction Russia and CAR.

• Anti US rallies in Pakistan organized by JuD-Let- DPC (Defa-e-Pakistan Council), including a mammoth one in Multan recently, with Hafiz Saeed giving open calls to attack US, sharing the platform with radicals like Hamid Gul, former DG ISI and hosts of serving military officers in civil attire and military veterans in attendance.

• Intelligence on actual attacks on US mainland / US assets and interests abroad, which is unlikely to be shared.   

To expect Pakistan to act against Hafiz Saeed or for that manner even his deputy Abdul Rahman Makki is living in a fool’s paradise. Have we forgotten that post 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, when India formally approached the UNSC to get JuD and Hafiz Saeed sanctioned for terrorist activities and Pakistan went begging to China to veto the proposed action, which the latter promptly did. Pakistan has learnt the art of ambiguity and deceit from China and her present stance of Hafiz Saeed helping out in de-radicalization is part of the same art. You can even expect her to nominate Saeed for a peace prize despite JuD’s 2,500 offices and 11 seminaries in Pakistan blatantly preaching radicalism and breeding terrorists for attack against US, Israel and India notwithstanding internal fallouts like heinous brutal killings of Shias within Pakistan.

There is a general belief that democracy is getting stronger in Pakistan. The vital question is how strong and whether it is in a position to control the ISI and the military. The straight answer is a resounding no. The undeniable fact is that terror capability in Pakistan is being constantly energized through institutionalized radicalization, the ISI-military combine is advertently or inadvertently are party to it and there are enough indications of the military getting more and more radicalized. The strength of democracy can be tested by asking Zardari to bring the ISI under his Ministry of Interior now – something he ordered on assuming President-ship but was made to swallow his words within 24 hours by Kiyani.

To expect much from Zardari and Gilani beyond a handshakes and smiles will be stupid. Ask yourself what they have delivered against the masterminds of the 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attack when you even have evidence that Kasab and his cohorts having been trained by Pakistani marines. Their stance of “not enough evidence” will remain unchanged. The least we can ask Zardari and Gilani is to stop the flow of crores worth of fake currency being pumped into India when there is solid evidence of it being printed in government mints in Pakistan. Surprisingly the issue was not even raised with Hina Rabbani during her maiden visit to India. 

Akin to sheltering Osama, Pakistan today is sheltering Dawood Ibrahim and the Haqqani clan as brazenly. “The Haqqani family, which runs the network like a mafia, maintains several town houses, including in Islamabad and elsewhere, and they have been known to visit military facilities in Rawalpindi, attend tribal gatherings and even travel abroad on pilgrimages. Experts say leaders of the Haqqani network may be hiding in plain sight in cities rather than in remote tribal areas,” wrote Pir Zubair Shah and Carlotta Gall, New York Times on 31 Oct, 2011.

To add to the above, Vahid Brown, a Princeton counter terrorism expert wrote in October last, “Senior leaders of the group concerned with political and financial affairs, like Khalil Haqqani and another of Jalaluddin’s brothers, Ibrahim Haqqani, have long resided in Islamabad. My impression is they mostly live in the cities. Ibrahim Haqqani had lived in Islamabad for the past 20 years. Diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks last year also revealed that the two Haqqanis often traveled to the UAE from Pakistan.” 

It took a decade for the US to admit the double dealing by Pakistan. David Ignatius wrote in Time magazine dated 23 May 2011, “When I asked top CIA and military officials what the intelligence showed about ISI activities, they would become visibly angry. They would say … see the double dealing … how US intelligence is passed on to Haqqani network”. The lessons appear ignored with the US now talking of “Good Taliban” and “Bad Taliban”. Are we next going to hear the classification of “Good Al Qaeda” and “Bad Al Qaeda” too? 

There is a need to understand the intimate linkages of terrorist organizations both at the national and international levels – dirty water will seek avenues to flow and mingle. Michael Hughes, geopolitical journalist, wrote in July 2010, “The Haqqani Network is Al Qaeda. Pakistan has had a close relationship with the Haqqanis for over 30 years, who are still seen as a crucial anti-Indian asset. So, for nine years the Pakistanis protected the Haqqanis and claimed ignorance as to the whereabouts of Mullah Omar, Osama bin Laden and the Quetta Shura. Nine years, nearly $300 billion dollars and 1900 dead coalition soldiers later, the US has officially verified that the entire war effort has been focused on the wrong side of the mountains.”

It is time for us to chalk out a strategy for coping with asymmetric challenges. China has recently frozen assets of six terrorists of the East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement (ETM) while supporting Pakistan’s radical jihad against India. China is also fully supporting terrorism and insurgencies in India, particularly the ULFA and Maoists. In our case, R&AW supported LTTE while IPKF fought the latter in Sri Lanka and similarly the IB is funding the Hurriyat today while the Army loses lives in J&K – both actions of R&AW/IB without sharing this information with the Army. Can we get our national act together?  

The author is a veteran Special Forces officer of the Indian Army

Views expressed are personal