Is Iran�s Space Dreams Unrealistic?

Despite its modest space technology infrastructure and a nascent capability to launch light weight satellites, Iran has a dream of attaining a global space power status  and to this end it has announced a plan for human space flight mission by the end of this decade. Iran has also hinted at an ambitious plan for lunar expedition.  But then western space analysts point out that a glaring lack of a high tech industrial base along with Iranian incapability to  take up the challenges of building a man rated, high performance launch vehicle and an autonomous crew vehicle along with its virtually nil expertise in re-entry technique crucial for the successful accomplishment of a manned mission. This implies that the Iranian keenness  for a human space flight project could just remain a pipe dream. All said and done, Iran has to go a long way before it catches up the Asian space frontrunners—Japan, China and India. 

 

Clearly and apparently, the rudimentary nature of the Iranian space program could hardly substantiate the Iranian claim of launching a manned space mission by the end of this decade. Indeed ,China ,which realised its first manned flight in 2003, had successfully built and launched its high thrust cryogenic fuel driven space vehicle in 1980. Most importantly, in the context of a virtual global sanction Iran will have difficulties sourcing critical components essential for building advanced spacecraft systems for end uses such as communications, weather watch, navigation and earth observation. For instance, Mesbah-1 (Lantern in Farsi), a low earth orbit telecom satellite that Iran had ordered from the Italian aerospace company, was prevented from being exported . In February this year, Iran managed to launch a 50-kg satellite named Navid (Gospel in Farsi) meant to collect data on climatic conditions and monitor natural disasters. Navid,  the third satellite to be launched from the Iranian soil, was delivered into orbit  by means of Safir-II rocket. The concern in the west over the military potentials of the Safir rocket, whose second stage details were kept under a wrap, was very much in evidence in the aftermath of Navid launch. As it is, western intelligence sources hint at the possibility of Iran reconfiguring the launch vehicle used for hoisting Navid into space into a long range strategic missile. 

 

In June 2011, Iran had successfully pulled off a space mission with the launch Rasad-1mapping satellite  which was meant to provide Iran inputs for building operational surveillance space platforms. However, a September 2011 Iranian mission to send a monkey on a twenty minute sub orbital flight had come a cropper. 

 

On their part, western space analysts hold the view that the Iranian space missions are a cover to boost its long range missile capability. For many elements such as chemicals, electronics and guidance as well as materials are common to civilian launch vehicles and military missiles. And with some fine-tuning it is possible to turn a launch vehicle into a military missile. 

 

Iran’s first domestically made satellite Omid was put  into orbit in Feb 2009. With the successful launch of the 27-kg.Omid, Iran became the ninth nation in the world to go into space on the back of its “ own rocket power.” In 2005, Iran launched its first satellite Sina-1, which was built in cooperation with Moscow, on a Russian rocket.

 

Tehran views its space programme as a source of national pride and victory against external forces. Strategic analysts believe that by riding on the success of its satellite launches, Iran may develop a missile capable of reaching Northern Europe. Meanwhile, a well documented IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) report says that Iran has built a large chamber at Parchin, southeast of Tehran, to conduct explosive tests that are “strong indicators” of efforts to develop a nuclear weapon. But the widely perceived view is that Iran is years away from having a deliverable nuclear warhead. Iran is believed to have achieved some degree of success in uranium enrichment, the technology of which is zealously guarded. But Iran has not yet achieved the “sufficient quantity or level of purity” to help fuel a bomb. Intelligence reports say Iran conducts uranium enrichment at the Natanz plant in Central Iran and at a site deep in mountainous region in the proximity of the holy city of Qom. USA, Israel and Western countries believe that the Iran could exploit its advances in enrichment technology to build nuclear weapons. But then as independent strategic analysts point out this observation may not be more than just a “conjecture”.

 

A section of US intelligence officials believe Iran has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East and many of these projectiles could be reconfigured to deliver nuclear warheads. Israel looks at Iran’s nuclear programme as potential threat to the very existence of the Jewish state. Obviously ,on several occasions, top ranking Iranian officials had made a call for the destruction of Zionist state. Against this backdrop, Israel has not ruled out the possibility of making a pre-emptive military strike to paralyse the Iranian nuclear programme. But then there is as yet no clear cut evidence  pointing out to a reliable ground reality of Iran’s nuclear weapons development program .Ad eventually, the hype and concern over Iranian nuclear programme could prove no more than a “damp squib” much the same way as the “weapons of mass destruction” of Saddam Hussein that acted as a trigger for US intervention in Iraq.

 

Radhakrishna Rao is a freelancer specialising in defence and aerospace issues