Internal Security and Economic Reforms

 

 

Since 2004, there has been an unprecedented impetus in the proxy war waged by Pakistan and China against India. The Maoists, undoubtedly with tacit Chinese support, of which there is increasing evidence, continue to spread their influence across India. As of now, over 200 districts are impacted by some form of Left Wing Extremism which impacts upon the social and economic fabric of the country. The much touted economic reforms have therefore failed to conflate internal instability on account of Maoist terror and falling economic growth. If the Maoist affected districts were to be reclaimed by the State, an eight percent growth would not be a struggling proposition. 

 

During the same period, jihadi terror victimised the length and breadth of the country. The targets of this terror escalated from Mumbai sub-urban trains in 2006, to religious places and to cities across the country in 2007, which then metamorphosed in the 26/11 attack on Mumbai. It was a ‘war’ waged by Pakistan in the guise of non-state actors. Most coastal countries are acutely concerned about this new paradigm of war introduced by Pakistan and are formulating response strategies to such attacks. India, however, continues to place its faith on diplomacy and politics, which so far has neither deterred nor altered the strategic discourse by the military-intelligence establishment of Pakistan. On the contrary, the policy makers in Pakistan have mastered the art of using diplomatic and cultural exchanges as subterfuge or even a tool of ‘proxy war’ against India. 

 

 

Apparently, the only respite or silver lining in the internal security scenario was in Kashmir. In 2011-12, the relative reduction in violence, the successful conduct of Panchayat elections and the high number of tourists visiting the state of J&K engendered a false sense of peace in the political establishment. The elections conducted to elect 34,000 village representatives were held after three decades. The level of intimidation by inimical internal and external elements and security threat to these elections can be gauged by the fact that it was conducted in 17 phases. It was hailed as a great victory for grassroots democracy and a harbinger of a new era in the political and national discourse in Kashmir.  These expectations are now being belied. It began with the killing of five village representatives last year, and now  the mass resignations of Panchayat members is threatening to go viral on the diktats of jihadi outfits aided and abetted by the Pakistan state. 

 

Rather than achieving the objective of promoting grassroots democracy, the Panchayats in Kashmir have become a religious and political whipping post for the ISI, jihadis, the separatists and the politicians in the Valley. Mr Geelani, the inveterate separatist pro-Pakistani leader views the Panchayats as ‘planned conspiracy to mutilate Muslim identity of Kashmir’. In a television debate in which this author participated, an eminent Pakistani politician described the Panchayats as a ‘Hindu concept’. Some other mainstream politicians and separatists in Kashmir have rejected the extension of 73rd Amendment to the Constitution, which vests Panchayats with significant powers, on the plea that it would militate against Article 370 and erode the state’s autonomy. Intelligence reports suggest that a large number of separatists and pro-Pakistan elements managed to get elected to these village bodies only to wreck the state from within. This has some parallel with the Maoist corridor, wherein a large number of Maoists have got elected to the Panchayats in Jharkhand and Orissa by sheer intimidation and terror. The large funds made available to them by the State are being used for furtherance of the Maoist writ and expansion. Such activities need to be taken note of and checked to preserve the unity and security of the country. 

 

 

More than 42 terrorist training camps are still operational in POK which indicates that there is no dilution of intent on the part of the ISI to push terrorists into India. Intelligence reports also indicate that about 3,000 – 4,000 Kashmiri youth are waiting to cross over to Pakistan for terrorist training. They have however not crossed over due to the dire internal and external compulsions of Pakistan. Pakistan is unlikely to change its agenda regardless of the internal turmoil within the country. In such a scenario, the clamour in Kashmir’s political class for the removal of the Armed Forces Special Power Act (AFSPA) appears premature. With the latest terror unleashed on Panchayat representatives by the jihadi groups based in Pakistan and abetted by elements in the Valley, the situation can be described as pernicious, as it strikes at the very heart of Indian democracy. To provide security to more than 34,000 elected representatives of Panchayats is a non-starter. The huge cache of arms, i.e. 98 pistols, 10 AK-47 rifles, 2 machine guns etc. captured by the Indian Army in Keran sector in Kupwara district is a grim indicator of the sinister designs of Pakistan and a new phase in jihadi terrorism. Such huge cache of arms of Chinese make, making its way into India could not have happened without Pakistani State support. The current political dispensation in Kashmir therefore needs to revisit its demand for the removal of AFSPA. 

 

 

The only ineluctable conclusion which can be drawn from the recent happenings in the Valley is that the strategic discourse of Pakistan’s military-intelligence establishment is unlikely to change. Its strategic reliance on proxy war is abiding. In that pursuit even ‘Afghanistan’ has proved to be a minor distraction. The US or the NATO has hardly been able to deter Pakistan from this course. India therefore will have to fight the proxy war by itself on the internal and external planes. The former is a more daunting task. Some of the recent religious protests were inspired, engineered and coordinated by more than one external source. The ire was not just directed at the US and its consulates in India, but there was unmistakable belligerence and implied violence against the symbols and machinery of the Indian state. The recent period also witnessed ugly protests against the visiting head of state of Sri Lanka. It is these actions that are pushing Sri Lanka into the embrace of China. 

 

 

With the increasing spread of Maoist and Jihadi terror, the space for peaceful economic growth is shrinking. Much of the areas earlier considered tranquil are now losing much of their peace and poise. This is despite the fact that in terms of number of personnel, the central armed police forces (CAPF) now exceed the strength of the Army. Increased numbers have however not mitigated the level of fear and terror. India therefore needs to create a new internal security structure for which there need to be a vibrant discourse in the political class, strategic community and within the security establishment. Without resolving this question, the Indian State will continue to flounder in providing security to its people in a comprehensive and enduring manner. We must remember that Security and economic development reamin two sides of the same coin.

 

RSN Singh is a former R&AW Officer and author of book ‘Military Factor in Pakistan'