Current Sino-India relations

Introduction

China is preparing for a change of leadership in November 2012. The present leader Hu Jintao will be replaced by a newly elected leader. The change is likely to be smooth and would possibly see a continuation of the present policies. China is a rising super power and is straining every sinew in building its Comprehensive National Power. Recently the United States (US) has made public its perspective defence strategy in which the focus has shifted from the Middle East to the Asia Pacific. This has obviously been undertaken viewing China’s build up of military capabilities. Currently the official Chinese budget has been declared as $106.5 billion; whereas actually the defence expenses would be around $ 180 billion which would be about three times that of the Indian defence budget. China has taken umbrage to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s statement that the disputes in South China Sea must be settled viewing these as international waters. Currently Japan has annoyed China by purchasing the seven square km Senkaku islands from a Japanese businessman and thereby causing further disturbance in Sino Japanese diplomatic relations. Chinese scholars have stated that China is extremely sensitive to territorial losses and feels victimised by such unilateral decisions by the Japanese. Chinese think tanks state that history bears testimony to China being attacked 108 times and this result in mass nationalistic uprisings which compels stiffening of Sino Japanese political relations despite excellent commercial activities between the two countries.

Sino Indian relations

It has been observed by all countries that China has become more assertive and is gradually moving away from Deng Xiao Ping’s path of maintaining a low profile. Their aggressive stance has caused turbulence in its relations with US, Japan, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, Vietnam and India. With India China has maintained excellent commercial relations. Two way trades between the countries is currently $74 billion and is expected to reach $ 100 billion by 2015.  However, the balance of trade tilts heavily towards China. To sustain this relationship China has to import more Indian items failing which there would be imbalance with adverse effects.

The major issues with India are the Border issue and the supply of nuclear weapon technology and delivery systems to Pakistan. The Border issue could be easily settled but there is reluctance on the part of China to come to a solution due to unexplained reasons, At this stage both sides are clear there would be no withdrawal of troops and possibly it would be pragmatic to accept ground realities. China’s friendship with Pakistan started post 1962 war and is dangerous as Pakistan is covertly colluding with the Al Qaida and Taliban both these organisations are creating militant conditions in the Xinjiang province of China.  Further the state of Pakistan is receiving unstinted support from China in development of nuclear weapons which currently as per reports are more than that of India as also ballistic and cruise missiles which are capable of accurately destroying military and civilian targets in India. The state of Pakistan is being run by a triad which comprises the civilian government, religious leaders and the Army. The combination has resulted in consternation and given the terrorists opportunities to attack military bases with a view to capture these nuclear weapons. China must comprehend the problems which will accrue from capture of nuclear weapons by the Al Qaida and Taliban.

China is also occupying the Shaksgam valley which is an area of Kashmir handed over by Pakistan. Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) troops have been noticed in Gilgit Baltistan improving the Karakoram Highway which would be linking the Western Highway to the port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea. This would reduce time taken to travel from Gwadar to Xinjiang. It would take 52 hours (less than three days) in comparison to travel by sea in about 25 days. Apart from road building, there are reports also of Chinese building missile storage locations in this disputed region. China has also been contesting oil exploration by ONGC Videsh in two blocks of the South China Sea. China claims the entire South China Sea and has cautioned India from undertaking exploration in the area despite permission from the Vietnamese, India has been judicious in stating that these are international waters and China has no right to question Indian activities as these are being undertaken with the permission of the Vietnamese Government. The firm attitude of India has compelled China to stop protesting against this issue.

Chinese incursions on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) continue despite protests from India. Their claim to Arunachal has been expressed in numerous ways. First of all, Indian citizens belonging to Jammu and Kashmir as also Arunachal are being issued stapled visas. They have been refusing permission to senior military officers serving in Arunachal and Jammu & Kashmir from visiting China. All these have created a situation of uneasiness in Sino-Indian relations.

Way Ahead 

The Chinese Defence Minister General Liang Guanglie visited India in the first week of September 2012. The high point of the visit was a 90 minutes interaction with the Indian Defence Minister. The Indian Defence Minister Shri A K Antony accepted General Liang’s invitation to visit China in 2013 as per mutual convenience. Further they agreed to resume joint military exercises at the earliest. These exercises commenced in 2007 were suspended three years later after series of disputes. During the talks the two sides are understood to have discussed the American plans to shift a major portion of its Navy to the Asia Pacific region and the presence of Chinese troops in the POK region. They also discussed the need to improve relations in the border areas and situation in South Asia and Asia Pacific region.      The Chinese Defence Minister also had talks with the Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne and discussed the importance of developing good relations between PLA and the Indian Armed Forces.

China must make all efforts to improve its relations with India. Being a rising super power it would be prudent to take positive diplomatic steps rather than delivering negative blows. Some of these could be its support to India to become a permanent member of the United Nations, resolution of disputes in the South China Sea in a collaborative manner, controlling the transfer of nuclear weapons and delivery system to Pakistan as also influence North Korea towards unification, These measures would bring a lot of good will and ease the present tension in South and East Asia.

Maj Gen PK Chakravorty (Retd) is Advisor, BrahMos Aerospace

Views expressed are personal