The Politics of Barack Obama�s Second Term

Though the verdict of the US Presidential elections is out, the political gridlock continues. While Barack Obama has been re-elected as President of the United States for a second and final term in office, the Democrats remain in control of the Senate, and the Republicans control the House of Representatives giving them the power to curb the President’s legislative ambitions ranging from taxes to immigration reform.

All future policy formulation and implementation face a tough road ahead, given the current placements within the US Congress. For an instance, passing legislations is likely to be caught in a quagmire as the Obama administration does not command adequate congressional support for initiatives which could be termed as pioneering.

In the foreign policy domain, there is an ongoing debate whether the Obama presidency has a global strategy in place. Recession and a banking debt crisis has enveloped a major share of the globe, European integration is under question, and domestically, an export-dependent China is facing the challenge of its products being no longer competitive internationally owing to rising costs of labour and land.

Though Obama’s win in the Electoral College was sizeable, the US Presidential polls have shown that the American electorate remains deeply polarized and that domestic realities and pressures are likely to limit Obama’s foreign policy decision-making. The narrow margin in the popular vote will prove to be a key determinant of his governance amidst constraints. Washington cannot afford to continue intervention in countries, as it tries to pull out of two rather strenuous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Obama administration is confronted with the most pressing question whether unrelenting war is sustainable and beneficial in the long-term strategic sense? Are political arrangements backed by economic and military aid suitable alternatives or a preferred course?

Bringing the US economy back on track is the foremost aim of the Obama administration coupled with the White House likely in redefining its strategy of dealing with the world. This holds true especially in wake of challenges including the West’s nuclear standoff with Iran, the ongoing crisis in Syria, the winding down of the war in Afghanistan and dealing with an increasingly assertive China, viewed from the prism through which the US assesses its geo-strategic interests. Based on the experiences of his first term, Obama might undertake a guarded approach in so far as undertaking any major initiatives in domestic and foreign policy is concerned.

President Obama does not have ample time to savor in his victory given the burning economic challenges, an alarming fiscal showdown and a still-divided Congress that is able to obstruct every move. His clear victory, however less decisively, over Mitt Romney does not take away the fact that he has been forced yet again to negotiate with a Republican majority in the House of Representatives. The present set up of partisan gridlock is unlikely to be any different than what gripped Washington for much of Obama’s first term.

All in all, the political scorecard following the polls has rendered Washington as divided as ever. The fundamental issues at stake and the reflective debate raging over the role of the government, the balance between stimulus spending and austerity and the proper level of taxation has not been settled in the least. The coming term could well duplicate the last term. Though the American people have pronounced their decision, they simultaneously have also imposed profound limits on this government. The victory sets up a crucial litmus test of whether President Obama can forge a productive second term in a bitterly divided political set up.  To conclude, Abraham Lincoln stated in an 1856 speech at Chicago, “Our government rests in public opinion… Whoever can change public opinion, can change the government, practically just so much.”

The author is a Senior Fellow at CLAWS

Views expressed are personal