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Myanmar: Is Chinese influence waning?

Post 1990 saw an improvement in the strained Sino-Myanmar relations, resulting in enhancement of mutual ties on multiple fronts. Consequent to the sanctions imposed on the military regime of Myanmar after 1990 elections by USA, Canada and European countries, Myanmar’s military regime was completely isolated. In spite of a history of turbulent relations in the past, China seized the opportunity by engaging Myanmar’s Government in multiple ways and giving it much needed supply of military hardware, training and large scale investments in infrastructure and projects. China also vetoed the UN resolution against the Military Junta in 2007. Chinese indulgence towards Myanmar has been viewed by some strategic analysts as a step in making Myanmar a client state of China. However, the 2012 visit of the head of the state of Myanmar to USA and the reciprocal visit of US President indicates a loosening of the close embrace between China and Myanmar.

Sino-Myanmar relations have historically been turbulent. At the time of getting independence in 1948, Myanmar had a sizeable Chinese population living in the central plains and engaged in private business. After the 1962 military takeover, the BSPP established ‘Burmese Way of Socialism’ under Gen Ne Win. Consequently, in 1963-64, there was a spate of economic nationalisation programmes introduced in the country which saw the closure of a large number of business houses. The apathy of the regime against private business houses resulted in the large scale exodus of Indian and Chinese origin people who were most severely affected. Some reports indicated an exodus of about 100,000 Sino-Burmese nationals, many of whom were influential businessmen in Rangoon. This impacted negatively on the relationship, but worse was to follow.

Influenced by the Cultural Revolution in China, the Chinese population in Rangoon started wearing red ‘Mao badges’. This was in contravention to local regulation, but the young Chinese resisted when ordered to remove them. As a result anti-Chinese riots broke out in Rangoon on 26 June 1967 which led to deterioration in Sino–Burmese relations. According to some eye  witnesses  the police  did  not  interfere  in  the looting  and  arson crimes  till the Chinese embassy was attacked by  some locals. This incident was followed by withdrawal of ambassadors by both the nations and also the expulsion of Xinhua (New China News Agency) correspondents from Rangoon. Beijing immediately suspended its aid programme to Burma which had started in 1960 under the Friendship Treaty. These riots contributed immensely to estranged relations between Beijing and Rangoon throughout the 1970s and 1980s. China openly came up in support of the Communist Party of Burma (CPB), which till now was on its own and did not have much support in Myanmar. China media also started targeting the Ne Win government. Support to CPB continued to be an important component of Chinese foreign policy throughout the 70s and only stopped after the death of Mao Zedong and change of leadership in China in 1976. Despite the normalisation of bilateral ties thereafter, the relationship only picked up post 1990, when tatmadaw (Myanmar military) desperately needed weapons and equipment for its modernisation programme. And the only country that could help her was China as the West had diplomatically isolated Myanmar. Thus the military regime did not blink for a second in getting into trade and military ties with China. It is evident then, that proximity to China was the need of the hour for the embattled military government at that time.  Besides China, Myanmar also developed relations with Pakistan, India and other neighbouring states.

The 2010  elections in Myanmar, though  shunned  by the  western media  as ‘sham’  has  resulted in  a government which  has  taken positive  steps  to  ensure growth  and  development of Myanmar’s grossly neglected economy. The UN development index has   placed Myanmar at the 149th position (out of 185 UN member states) which is a cause of concern to the state. As a result, efforts by the new government to move in the direction of economic development found reciprocation from many nations including USA. Its actions in liberalising the economy, granting greater media freedom and release of political prisoners etc. were lauded by all. The visit of India’s Prime Minister in April 2012 was probably the first visit by any premier to Myanmar once the new government took office and showed signs of indulging in serious reforms. During his visit to Burma, President Barack Obama announced a joint US-Burma partnership to advance democratic reform, and lay the groundwork for a peaceful and prosperous future for Burma.  The President also announced aid of 170 million dollars over the next two years to support this effort. In April 2012, Japan also agreed to waive billions of dollars in debt owed by Myanmar and restart full financial aid to the country for the first time since 1987. Japan is also investing in Dawei Special Economic Zone of southern Myanmar, which has great potential to become the largest industrial complex in Southeast Asia. Myanmar is now the focus of world attention and its actions are being watched.

The suspension of work on the Chinese USD 3.6 million Myitsone Dam project by the present regime has broken the perception that Myanmar is becoming a colony of China. The dam project has been controversial in Burma due to its enormous flooding area, environmental impact and its location on the Sagaing fault line. There have also been delays in the completion of the gas pipeline project, much to China’s chagrin. The Myanmar government has given no commitment as to when this project would be completed. Amidst this, Myanmar’s President, Mr Thein Sein attended the ASEAN meet and urged the members for investment in the economy and also urged Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) at Mumbai to come forward and make Myanmar their investment point. There thus seems to be a clear message being given by Myanmar that its strategic interests lie not in aligning with one power but with many countries and in many ways.

 

The author is a Lt col presently on study leave at University Of Allahabad.

 

Views expressed are personal.

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Mohinder Pal Singh
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