Responding to Chinese Defence Modernisation

Chinese Armed Forces are modernising at a feverish pace. With a declared defence budget of USD 106.5 billion, there is a thrust towards development of asymmetry which will enable it to win future conflicts with precision and rapidity. China’s focus is currently in development of high technology to undertake operations with alacrity and speed. As per a special report in the Asian Military Balance, China is developing ten killer applications designed to degrade, depress and destroy an opponent’s war fighting capability. The applications are part of asymmetric capabilities being developed to undertake high tech operations.

The first area is cyber warfare where the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) is fine tuning its offensive cyber warfare capabilities. Capabilities being acquired could potentially paralyse India’s power grids by targeting malware against the operating systems, attack communication nodes by triggering off unseen kill switches and disrupt air traffic, power plants and water treatment facilities by attacking the software controlling these systems.

The second area is missiles with high precision. China’s Second Artillery is capable of firing ballistic and cruise missiles to accurately engage any target on the Indian land mass. China has developed anti-ship missile DF-21D which is known as the aircraft carrier killer and has also developed anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons which can engage satellites up to 800 km. In a conflict situation, this could adversely impact on India if its GPS satellites are targeted, making navigation difficult for the land, sea and air combat elements.

Other areas of Chinese capability building include counter space to counter our use of space assets, integrated air defence to tackle stealth aircrafts with a combination of over the horizon radars with infra-red counters and the Russian S-300 missile system. China is also improving its ability to hold foreign satellites at risk. Simultaneously China is making progress in deploying space based surveillance platforms. These platforms would be equipped with high resolution electro optical cameras, synthetic aperture radar and electronic surveillance receivers. China is developing state of the art UAVs which would provide critical surveillance for determining targets. These UAV units are being formed under the Second Artillery, Army, Navy and Air Force. Armed UAV variants such as Pterodactyl are being introduced shortly.

The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) apart from inducting an equivalent of the Israeli Lavi jet fighter is currently employed in developing two ‘Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft’ (FGFA), the J -20 and the J -31. The US presently has the F-22 (Raptor) in service and is developing the Joint Strike Fighter F-35. This speaks volumes of Chinese investment in research and development as Russia is currently developing only one FGFA. Further, they are allotting adequate funds to make their missiles fly at hypersonic speeds. As of now, they have already inducted multi independent re-entry vehicle systems in their Second Artillery. In addition China has made reasonable progress in the field of direct energy weapons. As per reports they are straining every sinew to usher in such hard kill weapon systems. They have developed weapons in the high powered microwave category and are now focussing on lasers. These weapons could threaten communications, space assets, ships and aircrafts. Further it could shut down electronics in the immediate vicinity of its impact.

Numerous defence analysts have been articulating what would be the shape of China’s offensive against India. There are many options based on Chinese objectives. It could either take the form of cyber warfare with a combination of destruction of India’s Low Earth Orbiting (LEO) satellites along with precise cruise and ballistic missile attacks against specific military targets. This would be a limited conflict in which the entire campaign is restricted to the cyber and aerospace domain with a few selected targets on ground. The aim could be to paralyse Indian Command, Control, Communications, Computer, Intelligence, Information, Reconnaissance and Surveillance (C⁴I²SR) networks as also degrade firepower systems thereby demonstrating Chinese ascendancy without causing collateral damage. China could thus use its asymmetric capabilities and demonstrate its military prowess against India with limited international fallout. It could also take the form of a full spectrum conventional war to settle the border issue through the use of force. Here, a ground offensive would be added to the actions mentioned above.

India needs to be prepared for all forms of future conflict. As such, possible forms of Chinese interventions need to be thought of and capability developed to neutralise the same. The developments in the field of cyber warfare and ASAT weapons need to be crystallised at the earliest. As of now, India’s cruise missiles have conventional payloads and these have yet to be inducted into the mountains. While Chinese missiles are deployed at Delingha in Qinghai province and can be easily moved into Niyachi and Shigatse we have to take expeditious actions in this sphere. While India is suitably deploying its UAVs, there is a need to go in for UCAVs to attack targets. The Indian Air Force Sukhoi-30 Mk1 should be able to reach Chengdu and this would match the Chinese J-10. With regard to FGFA the IAF should be inducting the aircraft once handed over by Russia and this would possibly take another 10 years before the aircraft enters the Indian Air Force. But what needs urgent attention is the state of communication infrastructure on India’s borders. Construction/ improvement of roads and bridges must be expedited to enable our forces to move and enable logistic support of the land forces in war. In the field of anti-ballistic missiles, India is yet at the development stage. This system must be made viable for the mountains.  India must also look into development of direct energy weapons expeditiously to meet the anticipated threat.

India must also look into raising of a strike corps for the mountains. While China currently is reported to have about 10 rapid reaction divisions at Chengdu poised for operations India has no strike element for an offensive manoeuvre in the mountains. While this is a work in progress, it must be expedited. It must be kept in mind that the PLA has undertaken modernisation with a high tempo after the two Gulf Wars. India has to modernise her Armed Forces expeditiously to dissuade China from undertaking offensive operations and to ensure peace and tranquillity on the border.

Major General PK  Chakravorty (Retd) is a Delhi based defence analyst. 

Views expressed are personal.