Pakistan�s Historic Elections: An Analysis

Much hyped 2013 elections in Pakistan have been conducted smoothly despite many apprehensions that were voiced during the run up to the elections that the ‘permanent establishment’ will not let them go through. The elections have brought to power a Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) government to be headed by Nawaz Sharif. With the declaration of results for minorities and women’s seats for the National Assembly on 28 May 13, of the 332 results declared so far, PML-N has won 183 (142 directly elected, 35 women and 6 minorities), giving it a clear majority. In addition, its pre-poll allies, Pakistan Muslim League–Functional (PML-F) and National Peoples Party (NPP) have won six and three seats respectively. It is the first time in the country’s history that a democratically elected government completed its term and has been replaced by another through the ballot.

The victory of Nawaz Sharif, who has been the prime minister of Pakistan twice earlier, came as no surprise, as most opinion polls had forecasted that he would win the elections. However, what was not expected was the type of routing that the ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of President Asif Ali Zardari received in the elections. From being the largest political party in the National Assembly, it has been reduced to a distant second, with only 31 directly elected seats. Of these, 29 were won in Sindh and two in the adjoining Rahim Yar Khan District of Punjab. Similarly, before the elections PPP had its chief ministers in Baluchistan and Sindh, was part of the government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and was the largest opposition party in Punjab Assembly. From its nationwide presence the party has been reduced to the level of a regional party – a Sindhi party with some influence in Siraiki belt. The party did not win a single seat either in National Assembly or the Provincial Assembly in Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) or Islamabad. It won just two National Assembly and six Provincial Assembly seats from Punjab and all of them from South Punjab. It not only lost the position of main opposition party to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) of Imran Khan, its performance in Punjab was even worse than its former ally and almost defunct Pakistan Muslim League (Qaid).

Even more significant has been the rise of PTI, which emerged as the single largest party in KP and as the largest opposition party in Punjab. While it was expected that it would do well in urban Punjab, its performance in insurgency ridden KP was unprecedented. It won 22 out of 36 seats in the Peshawar valley and now has a chief minister in Peshawar. It also won seats from every administrative unit of Pakistan, including FATA and Islamabad with the sole exception of Baluchistan and its share of votes nationally was much higher than that of the PPP. With the emergence of PTI in Pakistan, the third force has finally emerged in Pakistan. Most of the new faces in National Assembly and the provincial assemblies belong to PTI. Even more significantly, it challenged MuttahidaQaumi Movement (MQM) in its citadel Karachi and not only won a seat, it also successfully highlighted the organised rigging by MQM cadres in the city. Its emergence as the second largest party in Karachi augurs well for the city in the long term as its support base does not come from a particular ethnic group, but in the immediate future could result in frequent conflict with MQM cadres, trying to re-establish their writ within the city.

In Baluchistan the voting although better than in 2008, was still quite low as many Baloch nationalist parties had given a call to boycott the elections. However, Pakhtunkhwa MilliAwami Party (PMAP), Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and some Baloch nationalists, who had boycotted the earlier elections, did participate. The polling percentage was higher in Pakhtoon dominated North and the areas adjoining Sindh. The polling percentage in insurgency affected Kharan, Panjgur, Awaran, Kech and Gwadar was less than 20 percent. In fact Lt Gen (Retd) Abdul Qadir Baloch won NA 271 for PML-N with just 7388 votes. As regards provincial assembly elections, the votes polled in Awaran were just 1.18 per cent, 18.4 per cent in Nasirabad I, 9.24 per cent in Panjgur I, 14.3 per cent in Kechh I, 11.3 per cent in Kechh II and 6.27 per cent in Kechh III.   In Awaran, the winning candidate won just 544 votes, which were 81 per cent of the total votes cast. In constituencies inhabited by both Pakhtuns and Baloch, the Pakhtoon candidates triumphed; consequently, not a single Baloch candidate won from any of the six constituencies in Quetta. PML-N is working on a coalition comprising both the moderate Baloch nationalist namely National Party (NP) and PMAP, however, the negotiations seem to be stuck on the Chief Minister.

The elections saw complete decimation of Awami National Party (ANP) which was the largest party in KP.Although the party’s campaign was affected by the TTP threat, the voters did not take kindly to the cowardice of its leaders. Not only was the party trounced in KP, FATA and Baluchistan, the party was also decimated in Karachi, where it had won two seats in the provincial assembly in 2008 and was hoping to improve its tally in view of the larger Pakhtoon influx into the city. The party’s hopes were belied as Taliban forced its workers to close their offices in the Pakhtoon dominated parts of the city. The main religious parties namely JamiatUlema-e-Islam (JUI-F) led by Fazal-urRehman and JI performed reasonably well in KP. Both the parties also won a seat each in Punjab provincial assembly. JUI-F also performed well in Pakhtoon areas of Balochistan.

After the elections, three different parties will rule Punjab, Sindh and KP, three most populous provinces of Pakistan. The possibilities of centre state relation coming under strain have increased considerably. Post elections, PTI has emerged as the main opposition party both nationally as well as in the crucial state of Punjab. This could see the complete eclipsing of PPP in Punjab, which in turn could lead to its greater identification with the Sindhi cause to retain its hold in Sindh. Similarly, the election results are unlikely to soothe the Baloch nerves; the ascendency of Pakhtoons in the province will further alienate them. Poor performance by AkhtarMengal’s Baluchistan National Party, which won only one seat each in the National Assembly and provincial assembly, will prevent other nationalists from coming on to the electoral politics.  Similarly, the emerging unstable ethnic equilibrium in Karachi could see frequent ethno-political conflicts. Consequently, one could see the aggravation of ethnic fault lines in Pakistan.

On the other hand, PTI government in KP will prevent Islamabad from taking a tough stance against the Taliban, by assuming moral high ground. Nawaz Sharif has already been forced to denounce the drone attack that killed the Taliban leader WaliurRahman. His pro-Taliban proclivities could further aggravate his already tenuous relationship with ‘the permanent establishment’ of Pakistan – the Army. Similarly, the eventual movement of President Asif Ali Zardari, a Shia and ascension of a political party with long ties with Sunni sectarian outfits would further increase the sense of insecurity amongst the beleaguered Shia community.  Already the targeted killings of Shias have restarted in Karachi. With various fault lines within Pakistan getting aggravated, Nawaz Sharif will really have to perform a tight rope walk to satisfy his diverse supporters, without plunging Pakistan into a bigger mess.

Alok Bansal is Senior Fellow at CLAWS.

Views expressed are personal.