Presidential Elections in Maldives and the Future of Islamic Radicalism in the Atoll State

The second multi-party presidential elections have been scheduled in Maldives on 07 September 2013. A run-off, in case the first round is indecisive, will be held on 28 September (21 days stipulated time gap) between the top two vote gainers. Four leading candidates in the fray are former President Mohamed Nasheed representing the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP); current President Mohamed Waheed of Gaumee Ithihaad Party (GIP), but contesting under an alliance (consisting of GIP, Divehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP), Dhivehi Qaumee Party (DQP), and Adhaalat Party (AP); Abdulla Yameen (half-brother of former president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom) of the Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM); and Gasim Ibrahim of the Jumhoree Party (JP).

How the Islamic radicalism is going to unfold after the polls depends on who will be the next President and his disposition towards Islam. Nasheed is contesting on the main plank of “restoring” democracy, development and diplomacy. PPM, which is in alliance with a prominent businessman Ahmed Siyam Mohamed’s Maldives Development Alliance (MDA), has been sloganeering on “Opt PPM or fail”. Except Nasheed, who is pitching for a “liberal Islam”, all other parties are wielding Islamic card. Jumhoree party, in fact, has appealed for “defence of Islam”. This is one of the major concerns of the international community, including India. How the new regime is going to confront the rising Islamic extremism in the coming years is going to determine the state of other dominating issues in the country – democracy, development and diplomacy. If extremism is allowed to rise its head and fester, then not only tourism (that contributes about 30 per cent of the country’s GDP), but also investment and aid would shy away from the country. In case the elections slip into second round, there are bright chances for all other parties ganging up against Nasheed to prevent him from becoming the president. The binding issue among those non-MDP parties would be none other than Islam.

Maldives, although a 100 per cent Sunni state, was considered far away from Islamic radicalism. However, in the recent years, Maldivians in increasing numbers have been drawn towards Pakistan-based madrasas and jihadist groups. Lashkar-e-Toiba, through its charitable front organisation, Idara Khidmat-e-Khalq, has established a foothold especially in the southern parts of Maldives in the garb of relief operations after the 2004 tsunami. Events in the Middle-east, Afghanistan and Pakistan have also influenced Maldivians towards radicalisation. Lack of adequate educational and employment opportunities have been pushing the Maldivian youth towards jihadist groups. Presently, the unemployment rate in the atoll-state is over 14 per cent. Interestingly, of the total 240,302 eligible voters this time, about 31,008 will be first-time voters, which means around 13 per cent of the total voters are between the age group of 18 to 23.

What is of concern is, at any point in time, a number of Maldivian nationals pursue their religious studies in Pakistani madrasas controlled by various jihadist groups. And very many numbers are enrolled in Saudi Arabian madrasas. On return, they come back not only with radical ideas, but also with jihadi networks. These madrasa-educated are influenced to fight in places like Afghanistan, Iraq and Chechnya. They also help in the direct recruitment of Maldivians for jihad. Surprisingly, Ali Jaleel, who was involved in 27 May 2009 suicide attack on the ISI headquarters in Lahore, was a Maldivian.

What came as a shock to generally peace-loving Maldivians is the violent manifestation of radicalisation in the form of first-ever terror attack in September 2007 at Sultan Park in capital Malé in which 12 were injured. Investigations pointed fingers at the Jamaat-ul-Muslimeen, a new Maldives-based terror group, which had links with the LeT. The masterminds reported to have fled to Pakistan. The incident alarmed the government. Given the fact that Maldives’ economy is heavily depended on tourism, any such attacks would shoo away tourists, majority of them from Western countries, and cripple the economy. What is more worrying for India is the infiltration of Indian terror group Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) to Maldives, especially after its crackdown in India.

The Maldivian government under President Mohammed Nasheed (from 2008 to 2012) took some stern measures to tone down the radicalisation. His government introduced regulations on local madrasas and seminaries. All mosques in the atoll were required to register with the Ministry of Islamic Affairs and those unregistered were declared “Illegal” and dismantled. The government also tightened visas so as to prevent foreign Islamic clerics from teaching in the local madrasas. But, these measures did not go well with the radicals. One of the reasons for Nasheed’s ouster in February 2012 was his anti-radicalisation stance. Therefore, Islamists would not be happy to see Nasheed return as President once again; they will try and block him as much as possible. Nasheed also knows this. For this reason, he has not been raising much voice against radicalism during the campaign. This is an unfortunate situation for the Maldives.

Dr N Manoharan is a Senior Fellow at the Vievakananda International Foundation (VIF), New Delhi

Views expressed are personal