Japan�s Green Signal to the Nuclear Deal: Time for India to Encash the Opportunity

With the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), including Japan, showing the green signal to Indian entry into nuclear trade, India became the only non-signatory to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) to have access to the nuclear market and technology. This waiver for India is being considered a landmark development. The nuclear deal became more important especially after Manmohan Singh-led government decided to get the deal through at any cost, even if the very existence of the government was at stake. Amidst stiff domestic opposition from the left and the right, and from the non proliferation obsessed international community, the NSG approval finally saw the light of the day on 06 Sept 2008.

It is interesting to note that though the Japanese response to NSG’s clearance to India was supported at the government level, it was however, severely criticized by some of the anti-nuclear groups and political leaders in Japan. Chief Cabinet Secretary, Nobutaka Machimura, said during a press briefing, “Japan has decided to join the consensus from a comprehensive viewpoint. The nuclear power will help India to fight global warming.” The Japanese government has refused to take such a lucid stand earlier even during the periodic high level exchanges. It is being felt that despite having reservations at the policy making stage and burgeoning pressure from anti-nuclear groups and lobbies, the Japanese government gave in to American pressure. Nevertheless, the Japanese government did show concern over India’s reluctance to sign the NPT since it felt such developments may weaken the international non-proliferation regime.

The Mayor of Hiroshima Tadatoshi Akiba and the Governor of Nagasaki Genjiro Kaneko after lobbying unsuccessfully against the deal expressed their disappointment over the NSG approval to lift the global ban on nuclear trade with India. They asserted that Japanese government should make efforts to completely eliminate all nuclear weapons. Hiroshima and Nagasaki are known world over for their opposition to nuclear weapons for what they went through during World War II. In addition, there exists a strong public sentiment opposing the nuclear deal.

Leading national dailies in Japan have covered in their editorials that any concession offered to India will trigger demands from other countries including Pakistan. It may provoke a nuclear arm race in South Asia and further make it difficult to keep tabs on nuclear programmes of North Korea and Iran. Manmohan Singh’s statement in the Indian Parliament in which he stated, “the deal would not prevent India from conducting nuclear tests in future” was widely criticised by the anti-nuclear/anti-militarism groups in Japan. The Yomiuri’s editorial has gone to the extent of saying that “This is, for all intents and purposes, tantamount to acknowledging India as a nuclear power…. We find the NSG's decision extremely disconcerting.”

The Japanese government on the other hand, has justified its stand quoting India’s clean proliferation record, and increasing energy requirement given its more than one billion population. However, the Japanese government is keen on India signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the NPT. Indian government has, however, assured Japan that the nuclear deal is only limited to the peaceful energy programmes. Japan remains hopeful that India will follow all the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards which were agreed upon earlier to ensure more transparency in the India’s nuclear programme.

Notwithstanding the domestic issues of Japan, the fact remains that nuclear energy amounts to almost 16 per cent of the world’s electricity which is equal to the electricity generated by hydel projects. US, France and Japan produce and consume almost one half of the world’s total nuclear energy. Most other developed countries rely heavily on nuclear energy. Some of the countries in transition have already switched, or are switching, to the nuclear alternative. Developing countries like Brazil, China and India have just two to three per cent of the total global share of nuclear energy. Presently Japan has 55 reactors in operation. US and France are the only two countries ahead of Japan with 104 and 59 nuclear reactors respectively. The noteworthy thing is that in France nearly 80 per cent of its energy requirement is meted out by nuclear energy.

Global trends in energy consumption show that the use of solid and liquid fuels is on the decline while nuclear energy, gases and renewable energy are on the rise. Notwithstanding the safety factor, the share of nuclear power in total energy use has considerably increased in the past few decades. Japan meets two-thirds of its energy requirement through nuclear power plants which were developed in the last four decades. Being located in one of the most seismic zones, Japan has high standards of safety and precautions to prevent any untoward incident. 

To fulfil its constantly increasing energy requirement, India has to diversify its sources of energy and nuclear energy is a good option. Given common values like democracy, popular government, transparency and good track record on non proliferation, Japan sees India as a natural ally. Both countries have shared healthy bilateral relations. Now that the bilateral trade is going to grow up to US $20 billion by 2010, both the countries can think of expanding trade and technological exchanges in the nuclear field as well.

Whatever be the reason, the Japanese government is positively inclined towards India. Japan, which is starved of natural resources, has technology, experience and financial resources to develop, maintain and run nuclear reactors, which can be beneficial for the Indian endeavours to transform itself from an energy deficient to an energy surplus country.
 

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies)