Second Round of Great Game Unfolding in Middle East

War is the greatest plague that can afflict humanity, it destroys religion, it destroys states, it destroys families. Any scourge is preferable to it.

Martin Luther

The Middle East is split vertically between two Muslim worlds because each side believe they are fighting a good and just war and other party is fighting an unjust war. The void and the fissures are widening by the day on ethnic lines and Sunni -Shia conflict is spreading at a rapid pace, least realizing that violence has never benefited the humanity. To nations are on the verge of collapse and many more may follow suit. In the Middle East there are four wars simultaneously being fought in the same strategic space.

1. Cold war between US and Russia for control of strategic space.
2. Shia and Sunni war, a war between believer and non- believer for control of territory and establishment of Islamic Caliphate.
3. A war for securing leadership in the Muslim world
4. And a war of politics of oil.

A Geographical and Geopolitical War

This is a strategic geopolitical conflict about natural resources, religion and money, and it has nothing to do with chemical weapons,[i] regime change for democracy and human rights violations. US has used both Shia and Sunni community to legitimise their interference in Iraq, coercion of Iran, the violent movement for regime change in Syria and restriction of Russian influence in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has spent a significant amount of money here developing a radical form of Sunni Islam called Wahhabism to counter Iran’s influence[ii] through ISIS (followers of Wahabi cult) an offshoot of Alqaida. In the future, various global powers will be active in the Middle East – primarily the US, Russia, China,  and  Europe.

Will the Conflcit Remain Restricted to Iraq and Syria? The arc of Shia is acting as a geographical and geopolitical fence and is seen as a hurdle for the spread of the Sunni Wahabism from Turkey to Indonesia. Two vulnerable Shia regime which could be imbalanced were Syria and Iraq, as a result Wahabi cleric supported the movement to oust Assad from Syria and waited patiently for US withdrawal from Iraq to turn the attention to Iraq. Al Qaida, has joined hands with Sunni militia to establish a Sunni Caliphate consisting of parts of Syria and Iraq. It is a matter of time that same radical elements will sooner or later turn against their former masters and Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia will face the heat from their prodigies. As the oil money start flowing in, the ISIS militias are likely to expand towards the East and West in an endeavor to establish a greater Sunni Caliphate beyond the confines of Iraq and Syria. War against Shia regimes in the region is slowly spiraling out of control. The extreme form of violence against the innocent population is sending shock waves across the entire Arab World. Complete disregard and intolerance against other ethnic community and religion will lead to ethnic cleansing and some of the stable Arab nations may also become unstable in the backdrop of the complete radicalization of the Muslim world.  At stake is no longer just Iraq, but rather the future of the entire region. The global community should consider themselves lucky, if the emerging chaos can be contained in Iraq[iii] and Syria.

At the bottom of the root cause is the global strategic zone of oil deposits. The strategic zone of oil deposits at the head of the Gulf is home to about 80 percent Shiites and only 20 percent Sunnis. [iv] The oil deposits and business has split the Arab world which probably has given birth to "Shiite arc of crisis" which can be termed as “unstable plateau”. On the other end of the fulcrum is the Israeli connection and unstinted support of the US to Israel. If the Americans and Israelis continue to spread chaos in the Arab world, moreover involving Syria and Iran, as they threaten, such an arc of crisis could in fact become a self-fulfilling prophecy[v] of unending conflict between Muslims (Shia and Sunni) and Muslim and non Muslims.

Whose War, is it Any Way?  Russia is using Shia regimes as geographical pivots to assume control of the global strategic zone of oil deposits, and gaining access to the Arabian Sea and Mediterranean Sea, as a result is supporting Shia regimes (Iran, Syria and Hamas). Turbulence in Middle East benefits US more than any other nation. Turbulence in the Middle East is a leverage for US against Russia and China to keep these nations at a distance from West Asia and also to keep them at a low threshold of growth. In pursuance of their West Asia policy US is supporting the Sunni majority (Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt). Russia and US are extending an olive branch to Shia and Sunni blocks, “the most interesting case is Egypt, where Russia has stepped in with prospects of arms sale when the U.S. has cut back on arms transfer to Egypt”.[vi] Objectives of Russia are clear, regain the strategic space in the Middle East and North Africa, explore markets for its weapons, gain access to the Persian Gulf and the Meditarranean Sea for the export of oil and gas and prevent an access to the US and its allies into Central Asian Republics. It is a huge charter, but Russia is pursuing to achieve this through Syria, Iran and Hezbollah. Will they be able to defeat the US design is a big question, but Russia is unlikely to make a strategic  retreat from an area which offers an opportunity for control of strategic space, markets for its weapons and may also assist shrinking US influence in the region. Russia is working through Hezobullah, Syria and Iran, where as US is working through Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel, and the Sunni militia.        

US interests in this entire conflict is to isolate and restrict Russian and Iranian influence in the region, regain control of the Middle East and gain access to Central Asian Republics to control the energy rich region of the world. US is conscious of the fact that Russian resurgence is dependent on the unrestricted flow of oil and gas to Europe and other parts of the world. The very idea of turbulence in Syria and Northern Iraq is to isolate Russia and deny use of Shiaiite arc to gain access into the Mediterranean Sea. 

Saudi Arabia is maneuvering to restrict the arc of Shia influence or arc of Shia terrorism as described by King of Jordan. Larger motive is to establish the Sunni Caliphate and a spread of Wahabi Islam from Turkey to Indonesia. In this quagmire Shia and Sunni population has become the cannon fodder for the pursuance of the larger interests of stakeholders. Material support to Sunni is coming from the US  and its allies and ideological support from Al Qaida and Saudi Arabia. Similarly, the Syrian government is being supported by Iran and Russia. Iraq has been left in the lurch by US when it started tilting towards Russia and Iran. However, US has ensured that they retain control over all the three segments of Iraq, i.e. Kurdish controlled areas, Sunni controlled areas and Iraq under the present regime. The irony is that all stakeholders are working in pursuance of their motives. This marriage of convenience can best be described by the Chinese maxim “sleeping together and dreaming differently”. That means Saudi Arabia and US have shared means, but different motives. The same is applicable for Russia and Iran.

Where does China Stand in this Conflict? China seems to be out of the frame, but it will be a mistake to conclude this phenomenon. In fact China has already built bridges with the Shiite group through Iran and Sunni through Turkey. China may not be even shy of establishing diplomatic and economic relationship with ISIS or Islamic Caliphate. Because there are no untouchable as far as protection of strategic national interests are concerned. In addition, there is also a likelihood hat China may join hands with Russia to keep US out of CAR through middle east since it suit both neighbours. Irrespective of what is happening in the Middle East, one thing is clear that US influence is shrinking. Establishment of the Peshmerga/ Kurd Regime and Sunni Caliphate spread from Syria to Iraq may ultimately be US design to keep other players out of the scene, but ultimately it will be seen as failure of US policies in the Middle East. 

Consequences of this Conflict. The threat of ISIS is not only for Iraq and Syria. The area that they now control abuts Jordan. They might find Jordan a much softer target than the Shia areas of Iraq. And if they make a dash for Amman, will the unpopular Jordanian regime be able to hold?[vii] "They will try to re-establish a caliphate throughout the entire Muslim world". "Iraq's future will either embolden terrorists and expand their reach and ability to re-establish a caliphate, or it will deal them a crippling blow".[viii] The Global community must be alive to the fact that failing in Syria, Iraq and other parts of the Middle East is not an option, establishment of the Caliphate and control of oil resources will act as a pivot for the radical Islamists to trigger instability across the globe. Two nations are on the verge of collapse and if it spiral out of control few more will face a similar fate as that of Iraq and Syria. If Russia, US, Iran and Saudi Arabia act swiftly and adopt a joint strategy, there is a chance to stabilise the situation, or else there is a persistent risk of destabilisation of entire Asia, North Africa and even parts of Europe. Joint strategy to isolate and encircle the Islamic Jihadi of ISIS has to be initiated from Shia dominated  regions, i.e. Syria, Iraq, Iran and Peshmerga (Kurdistan).  

How Does this War Affect India? The crisis in the Middle East has great significance for India. India is the home to the second largest Sunni population of the world. It is both a strength and vulnerability. It is a strength if India is able to harness this demographic power to keep the Jihadi out of the periphery of India and vulnerability if the subversion of Indian Muslim is allowed to take place. The Indian Muslim population is also a bridge between the Middle East oil exporting nations and a platform for spreading moderate Islamic culture and study centres for the global Muslim community. India’s energy security and growth rate will be seriously impacted by these turn of events since India imports almost 75% of its crude oil from the Middle East. This also calls for ensuring alternative oil and gas supply so that such crisis do not impact India’s growth story. Third aspect is that close to six million Indian work in the Middle East which is a great source of earning foreign exchange. Apart from this Middle East is also solving employment problems of skilled and unskilled labour from India. At the moment yearly outflow of labourers from India to Middle East is close to seven lakhs. Indian Diaspora is a cultural bridge between Arab countries and India. This is also acting as a plank for Indian export to West Asia.

Not a Good Idea to become Habitual of Crisis Management. It is significant to highlight that India must come out of the reactionary mode to protect vital strategic interests and security of its nationals. There is a need for a proactive approach, and a perspective plans division needs to be established in the MEA/NSA, which is capable of forecasting the security, economic and demographic crisis impacting India. This will assist in preventing crisis management and embarrassment to the nation. This division will also assist the nation in providing advance notice to put mechanisms in place. Crisis in Middle East must be examined to put a course correction so that it does not impact economic growth, energy security and security of Indian Diaspora. It is unlikely that this problem will remain limited to Syria and Iraq, it will destablise entire West Asia and Pakistan included. The “humanitarian perfect storm”[ix] will become unmanageable in terms of displacement of population, ethnic cleansing and restoration of peace. It is time for the international community and the Arab world to come together and adopt a joint strategy to deal with the crisis created by ISIS and other non state actors.

The author is former Senior Fellow, CLAWS. Views expressed are personal.