The Fall of Aleppo - Who will root for Democracy in Syria now?

US President Barack Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameroon’s recent joint statement that it will form a NATO alliance for destroying Islamic State (ISIS) in northern Iraq but not in Syria, adequately sums up the hollowness of the US foreign policy on Syria. But perhaps in the larger sense it is also reflective of the failure of Arab league and the international community, which has till now abstained from taking any decisive action to grasp the reality of what has become a Syrian quagmire. 

As Aleppo finds itself surrounded by the troops of President Bashar al Assad and the militants from the Islamic State converging on the northern front, the moderate rebels, who since the beginning of the people's uprising had held onto the cause of freedom and democracy, are slowly losing their grip on Syria’s second largest city and a strategic stronghold. At present, the groups that still make up the Free Syrian Army (FSA) - the erstwhile democratic resistance forces - and the Islamic battalions determined to see the fall of Assad, preserve a toehold to the north and west of Aleppo and inside Aleppo itself. 

The civil war came to Aleppo only in July 2012 - 16 months after the uprising had turned into an armed civil war - when rebels from the FSA seized the north. Its capture then had many lead to believe that the fall of regime would now be anytime soon. But two years since, both sides have been stuck in a bloody stalemate and the situation has only worsened for the rebels with the advancing onslaught of the militant extremist ISIS.

The battle for Aleppo

Having lost the Mosul dam - after American fighter jets, bombers and drones assisted Kurdish and Iraqi forces in driving the extremist group back from Iraq’s most important dam - ISIS has marched its humvees in Aleppo's direction. After consolidating its gains in the northern Raqqah, ISIS is now looking to extend its territory in the east. In the last few weeks, it has taken control of al-Bab city and captured 10 villages and neighbourhoods near Aleppo and was nearing the rebel-held towns of Marea and Aazaz, both bastions of rebel groups which are also fighting the Syrian military since last month which has escalated its offensive by conducting airstrikes on the rural towns in northern Aleppo.

The Syrian army has launched a major offensive against the rebels including FSA, al Nusra Front, Aknaf Bayt al Maqdes Group, Saraya al Jihad, Falojat Horan Brigade and the Islamic Movement of Ahrar al Sham, as the regime forces progressed towards Aziza, a small village just south of Aleppo city. Its aim is to capture all villages around Aleppo, thus tightening the siege of the city, while deliberately shelling bakeries and food queues, forcing starvation and weakening the rebel power until their retreat, is now a key strategy of the Syrian army which proved successful in flushed out rebels during the battles for al-Qusayr in Homs and Wadi al-Deif.

Losing the towns of Marea or Azaz to either the regime forces or the ISIS could cut off rebel-held areas in southern Aleppo city, and Dabiq a town near Turkish border and Akhtarin. These towns along the northern parts of Aleppo are strategically located along the highway between Aleppo and Minnakh Airbase that leads to Turkey where most of the rebel political leadership is based. The highway is used as an important resupply route for rebels vital for controlling its hold on Aleppo while the surrounding villages form an important base for various rebel factions.

The rural towns surrounding Aleppo form a strategic supply line for the moderate rebels who are currently fighting Syria’s regime forces and the ISIS group

The closure of Turkey border would likely cripple rebel ability to contest areas throughout Aleppo and make its survival solely dependent on the Bab al-Hawa crossing in Idlib province. It would also serve to further fragment the opposition movement, as rebel groups will no longer control a geographically linked territory from the east to the west, across Raqqa, Aleppo, and Idlib provinces. Closely located along the Turkish-Syrian border, Aazaz will be a valuable asset to ISIS as it will facilitate recruitment of foreign fighters –crossing from Europe to Turkey and onwards to Syria and Iraq—and also expand its caliphate territory currently swaying between Syria and Iraq to Turkey. Such a move will cause a deadly spill over of the Syrian war into Turkey after Iraq.

To arm or not to?

In absence of any military and logistical support from the West, the moderate rebels in the meantime are left to defend their positions with home-made explosives and sling-on-the-shot ammunition to counter the offensive from both the Syrian army and the ISIS. In its battle against the rebels, the Syrian army has made indiscriminate use of its air power, dropping barrel bombs in the most populated neighbourhoods. In some districts near the eastern fringes, up to 30 per cent of all buildings have been demolished. Since the conflict in Aleppo began between government forces and the rebels in May 2012, the Violations Documentation Centre in Syria has noted deaths of 5892 civilians from barrel bombing alone, in defiance with the United Nations Security Council resolution. The rebels have no anti-aircraft capabilities and are left significantly exposed to defend itself from the regime’s air attacks.

Fearing its impending defeat, Aleppo’s rebels have called for an air campaign like in neighbouring Iraq against the regime and the ISIS to roll back their advance from Aleppo. Although it recognised the Syrian National Coalition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people in December 2012 and views ISIS as a global threat, Washington however is still holding itself back from a military drawdown. It has been equally hesitant in arming the rebels with modern weaponry and sophisticated arms which they desperately need against Assad’s army and the ISIS, fearing they would eventually fall back in the hands of Islamist extremists and be used against the West. According to activists in northern Syria, the opposition battalions in Aleppo have anti-tank weapons, such as RPGs, rocket launchers and machine guns. In July, the Pentagon announced its plans for a new program to train 2,300 fighters over a period of 18 months. The plan still requires approval by Congress to move ahead.

The FSA has already lost Homs, which was once considered the `heart of the revolution.’ If it lost Aleppo, it will not only mean losing an important and strategic hold to either the Assad regime or ISIS, but practically losing the only moderate faction which has continued to root for a pluralistic, democratic society in Syria. Since the civil war in Syria, the theatre of conflict has been dominated by several opposing factions whose aim is beyond overthrowing Assad to capturing the Syrian territory for establishing an Islamic Caliphate. The historic and oldest city of Syria, before the onset of war was home to 2.5 million including the second-largest Christian community in the Middle East and other minority groups including Kurds, Alawites, Circassians, Turkmen, Yezidi, and Ismaili. This heterogeneous composition is already shredded with most of the Christians fleeing and over 70 per cent of the original population of Aleppo being displaced. One of the biggest threats emanating is that the Christian, Alawite, Kurd, and Druze minorities will no more have protection and safety of their rights under the growing clout of the Islamic State.  ISIS’ strategy and actions, since its earlier days in the conflict, by executing its opponents and implementing the Sharia law in the strictest and harshest way made it clear that it was unconcerned with the broader goals of revolution. The threat of ISIS’ growing extremism and barbaric violence is evident from its chilling videos beheading American journalists Steven Sotloff and James Foley in the past month, killing of over 700 members of the al-Sheitaat tribe and mass executions of more than 250 members of Syrian army during the capture of Tabaqa airfield.The siege of Aleppo will mark the second important city of Syria along with al-Raqqah and take the tally of its territory to three cities with Mosul in Iraq. The ISIS wants Aleppo as badly as Assad, who has already lost 35 per cent of the land to the militant extremists’ caliphate. 

Game over for democracy

Who stays in Aleppo will be an important determinant of the fate in Syria war. For Assad’s forces controlling Syria’s second largest city and bringing it under regime command is as important as battle for other key cities like Homs and capital Damascus. The defeat of the rebels will mark an even bigger elimination, dividing Syria clearly between two players: Assad's Syria versus Islamic State's Syria. Both the options will mean demise of any hope for democratic transition overthrowing Assad for which Syrians had risen and led the pro-democratic protests in 2011. Politically, the FSA is supported by the Syrian National Coalition - comprising 14 opposition groups - whose aim is ending Assad family’s 43-year old despotic rule and establishing a democratic, civil society in Syria on the principles of human rights, judicial independence, press freedom, democracy and political pluralism. The FSA rebels now face the risk that its campaign may terminate even before it reaches its operational and strategic objective. Its defeat in Aleppo will only manifest its irrelevance in the future of Syria’s civil war.

With the moderate rebels’ weakened ability to combat ISIS, President Bashar al Assad’s coalition forces with Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards will increasingly be seen as strong military coalition who can defeat the threat of the ‘terrorist group’ in the region. Even if a NATO style intervention is forced against ISIS in Syria, it will have to be done with Assad in arms which will effectively make him a legitimate partner in ‘war on terror.’ ISIS is as much an enemy of the regime as of the rebels. But making ‘enemy of the enemy a friend’ will be a dangerous trap for the West, giving more power to Assad to cling on his rule. Supporting Assad - who could be indicted as war criminal for committing crimes against humanity against his own people - would again reinstate his authority, severing any chances of the resurrection of the democratic resistance forces.

The battle for Aleppo is a call for the international community to form a determining strategy on Syria, one which will pave way for a real transition. A strong impetus is on hand to kill two birds with one stone: support the Syrian opposition to defeat ISIS and weaken Assad. Including the Syrian opposition like the Kurds in Iraq in the broader strategy to beat ISIS while continuing airstrikes will take care of America’s changed foreign policy of the Iraq/Afghanistan fiasco: no boots on the ground.

Leaving Aleppo in the hands of either the Assad regime or ISIS will have serious implications on chances for future legitimate governance. As the clock ticks down to the inevitable showdown, saving Aleppo is an urgent necessity by keeping the democratic resistance forces in play. Let’s not forget that the civil war in which more than 1.9 million people have been killed began from graffiti in Dera’a which said ‘people want the regime to fall.’ Let’s not say goodbye to the revolution, yet.