Is the Caliphate or Ottoman Empire Resurrected?

Turkey forms the bridge between Europe and Asia, with territory in both continents. It guards the sea passage between Black Sea and the Mediterranean, which runs through the Straits of Bosporus, the Sea of Marmara and the Dardanelles. In a strategically crucial location, it forms the south eastern flank of the NATO alliance. Turkey shares almost 800 miles of common land frontier with Syria, Iraq and the volatile Trans-Caucasian region (Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan) which once brought the erstwhile USSR face to face with Turkey.

Turkey, already ranked the seventeenth largest economy in the world[i], is growing very steadily as a regional power on account of its once secular credentials, stable military power and strategic location. Apart from instability in the north, the permanent instability of Iraq, Iran and Syria in the south is the added dimension posed by its permanent adversary, Greece in the Balkans and Cyprus.  

Recently, Turkish President Erdogan, speaking at a summit in Istanbul on justice for women[ii], brought out that biological differences between women and men meant they cannot serve the same functions in life. The present government has been accused of seeking to erode the country's secular principles and restricting  the civil liberties of women, declaring that every woman should have not more than three children, and reduced abortion rights. Some domestic norms indicate a deviation from the once secular credentials and a shift towards strict Islamic values.  

It is well known that Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are providing financial, military and logistical support to extremist jihadi groups against the Assad regime, in Syria. Turkey also knows that the Arab peninsula is on the decline with dwindling oil resources, little industry and in house existential crises. Turkey's leadership of this proxy war is axiomatic because of its high stakes in the region. Turkey, also, insists on the establishment of a no-fly zone in northern Syria by the coalition forces and the removal of Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, so that the entire region falls in its sphere of influence.

Recent under-sea discovery of hydrocarbons around Cyprus and the Levant has the potential to significantly alter energy supply dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean region[iii]. Its cheap transportation through Turkey to Europe would reduce Europe’s dependence on Russia energy. Turkey and Greece have a long-standing dispute over Northern Cyprus which is under Turkish control since 1974. The US has supported the Greek Cypriots’ attempts to drill for oil in the island’s EEZ, a move that has been thwarted by Turkey’s armed retaliation to deny these rights. Evidently, Turkey wants to negotiate on its own terms now.

Fighting between IS and various armed groups in Iraq & Syria has brought in about 1.5 million Kurdish refugees in the west and north western parts of Turkey[iv]. Even though Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) has been one of the major resistance forces against IS, Turkey has refused to arm it, as it still considers it a terrorist organization. This assumes that Turkish national interests make the Kurds the No 1 enemy in long run and not the IS.

Turkey is accused of providing military equipment and logistics support to IS in the guise of humanitarian assistance, including arming two hundred thousand pro-IS Turkish nationals settled  in North Syria. Turkey is providing this support to IS when its own territory is also threatened by IS. Some hidden agenda or understanding with IS exists.   

While Turkey has professed unconditional support to the coalition against IS, it has reservations on joining the US led broad coalition. Turkey has also refused to grant the US access to its own bases to launch attacks against IS[v]. These are deliberate ploys to convey an ambiguous stance on Turkey-IS relations. Of course, IS dreams of establishing the Caliphate in liberated areas, spreading even closer home to India and news of beheading US nationals, have been doing the rounds; but who the real IS backers are, is yet unclear. Turkey, albeit unwittingly or otherwise, fits the bill.  

The US, as it is, wants to play a limited role in the West Asia region and is always looking for allies. Israel has been subdued by its chief ally, the US, and is too preoccupied to make any claims of being a regional power. World opinion will not allow Russia to absorb Georgia to reassert its hold in the Trans-Caucasian region and challenge Turkey. Turkey's control of the Bosporus and Dardanelles would also keep the Russians under check.

Iran's ambitions appear to have been severely curtailed by the recent extension of the Iran-US talks on Iran's capacity to make atomic bombs in exchange for dismantling US sanctions. Iran’s oil revenue stands reduced to 40 percent, its currency has crashed and overseas financial transactions rendered almost impossible. Barring some last minute face saving measures by Iran, the agreement is a foregone conclusion.

The Islamic world today is totally fragmented and badly looking for a long term leader. This leadership vacuum can only be filled by a dominant Muslim regional power. Turkey once enjoyed this power, first as the Byzantine Empire for 1000 years and later as the seat of the Ottoman Empire for over 500 years. Call it IS Caliphate or the re-establishment of the Ottoman Empire, recent events show that Turkey has been resurrected once again.

The author is Visiting Fellow at Indian Council for World Affairs. Views expressed are personal.