Implications Of Xi Jinping�s Visit For Pakistan

For China, Xinxiang is more valuable than $46bn and this injection of billions is essential for Pakistan at this critical juncture when the economy in real terms is going down because of energy deficiency. The extravagant welcome of President Xi Jinping by Pakistan policy makers on 20-21 April is reminiscent of the old days of wars when world leaders enjoyed such classic welcomes from host states, like President Nasser was welcomed in Syria in 1958.

It is true that by controlling debt of a country one can influence the policies of nation state as a whole, and is a favoured means by which major powers manipulate the policies of medium and small powers through different state, and non-state institutions. Chinese Investments in Pakistan are likely to support this argument in the near future, and if the end result is ‘stable Pakistan’, it will be beneficial for all the regional players including China. Escalation of insurgency and terrorist activities in the Uighur region of China could be the foremost threat to its ambitions in the region and beyond. If any Islamic Caliphate recognizes Xinxiang as an independent state and supports the cause, the way Taliban once recognized Chechnya as an independent state, that would be a bad dream for Chinese policy makers. Hence a sheltered Pakistan is in the interests of China, Afghanistan and India as well.

Pakistan does not share any cultural, linguistic, civilizational or societal linkages with China but the Joint statement given by the PM Nawaz Sharif and President Xi Jinping emphasized on “Shared Destiny” and “Common Interests”. These interests could be political, economic and security-related matters, which are at the centre of an anarchic world, order. Hence, by investing in the economy and security of Pakistan, China can dominate the politics of the country. Therefore, the visit of Chinese President is likely to have a profound impact on all aspects of Pakistan. This paper attempts to analyse this effect to comprehend future scenarios.

Economic Implications

Till 2015 Pakistan received $31bn from US under military reimbursement for war against terrorism. The flow of aid has been reducing since 2010, according to Congressional Research Service of the USA; Pakistan will receive only $794mn in 2016. However, IMF is funding $6.6bn to strengthen Pakistan’s Economy under Extended Fund Facility(EFF); the last installment will be paid by IMF in September 2016. To replace these sponsors Pakistan is looking up to China. From 2006 to 2014 China invested and signed contracts with Pakistan worth $20bn. Major chunk of this investment went into power projects. Out of 51 agreements signed during this visit of the Chinese President, 20 agreements are related to power projects, which include 12 power generation plants and two transmission lines. This can provide impetus to the impoverished Pakistani industry. Improved quality of electricity and continuity can give life to Pakistan’s industry, which is relinquishing under the current circumstances.

Pakistan has “welcomed the creation of Silk Road fund by China and its utilisation for CPEC (China Pakistan Economic corridor)”, possibly holding the hope that the CPEC will bring prosperity in the undeveloped parts of Pakistan including the unstable Baluchistan and FATA. As per the joint statement given by President Xi Jinping and PM Nawaz Sharif, development of Gwadar port, construction of Karachi-Lahore motor highway and development of Havelian Dry port will be the focus of CPEC project. This statement strengthens the fact that CPEC, which was initially supposed to pass through Quetta, Zoab and Dera Ismail Khan will now be rerouted through already developed areas of Sindh and Punjab which are Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad further till Kashgar. If the alignment is changed then the possibility of development of Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA will not fructify.

Political Implications

By signing 51 agreements Nawaz Sharif has earned political capital. All the political parties supported these agreements and without strong opposition, Nawaz Sharif can secure his throne by spending this capitol in the next election. Prior to visit of the Chinese President many of the articles that appeared in the Pakistani English print media were critical on the amount of Chinese investment advertised by the Sharif brothers and other political leaders. Only if the ‘on paper’ agreements are implemented soon, will Nawaz Sharif will be able to save his position or else it may well sound a death knell for his political career.

If the Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz (PML-N) government changes the original plan of CPEC to appease the majority that lives in Sindh and Punjab, they will give another weapon to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) which is the ruling party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The attacks by Baluch nationalists on Chinese development projects are hampering the progress of projects. Hence, it may be difficult to win the confidence of Baluch nationalists by the PML-N government and the situation is likely to remain unchanged . However, President Mamnoon Hussain convinced Xi Jinping that the government was working on measures to provide special security to Chinese citizens who were working on the projects.

Security Implications

China and Pakistan agreed to elevate their relationship “to the all-weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership”, and China “reaffirmed its support and solidarity for sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Pakistan”. China did not give any assurance of such support by signing any agreement. The Chinese President was more worried about the East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement ETIM active in the Xinxiang region. The leaders of this terrorist organization are active from the safe heavens of North Waziristan and border regions of Afghanistan. Thus, the joint statement  “the two sides’ believed that the security interests of Pakistan and China are closely interconnected”. Although Pakistan has already started military operations against such elements, there were reports that the leaders of these terrorist groups have escaped to Afghanistan because of the safe passage given to them. Henceforth Pakistan needs to take firm action against this terrorist organisation.

Looking at the history of India in relation to these two countries, there is a possibility that the quoted statement about the interconnected security interests of China and Pakistan might be in reference to rising India.

China agreed to strengthen bilateral cooperation in the space technology, remote sensing and telecommunication technology, all of which are dual use technologies. Further, they agreed to enhance the cooperation in the field of defence technology and production. In a discussion with the author, senior US military commanders have mentioned that the reason behind US aid to Pakistan is its worries about the Instability in a Nuclear-Armed Pakistan. In future, China would not want to face the same fate as suffered by the US. It cannot risk its delicate dual-use technologies falling into the hands of extremists or becoming a bargaining chip for Pakistan.

Regional Implications and the future Scenario

New York Times reported that the senior former pentagon official David S. Sedney said that, the US support to Pakistan to bring stability is “dramatic failure because the resources were scattered too thinly, and had no practical or strategic impact”. Chinese investments are more focused and possibly integrate the region by reviving the old silk route. Such initiative definitely benefits Pakistan, Afghanistan as well as other South Asian countries.

There are two ways to look at this deal

• Ideally- developmental projects can bring stability in Pakistan. Superior technology used in space, cyber and nuclear will bring prosperity to the state. The concept of “Asian Security” will increase inter-regional cooperation and will further integrate the region itself.
• Realistically- In the future, under defence or technology cooperation agreement, if China supplies superior weapon systems like submarines and stealth fighter jets etc to Pakistan proliferation of such technologies can obliterate deterrence in South Asia. Chinese assertiveness in the name of Asian Security in South Asia and rerouting of the CPEC along the Indian border can increase the tension between three states further into clashes.

The world is more real than the ideal.

The author is Research Assistant at CLAWS. Views expressed are personal.