Following Up on the Bangladesh Visit

The Prime Minister’s visit to Bangladesh concluded on 07 June. Analyses and media coverage on this visit to a regional neighbour were unprecedented, and equalled if not exceeded that of his trip to China and later, Russia. 22 bilateral documents were inked. This, combined with the statements of both Prime Ministers, seemingly affirmed what the influential Bangladeshi English newspaper ‘The Daily Star’ announced as the ‘dawn of a new era’.

It appears that the follow up towards implementation of some of the more important agreements has started in earnest. The census of enclave dwellers is complete and the land boundary agreement is under implementation. Preparation of the Draft Project Report for construction of a bridge over the Feni River to finally link Tripura with Chittagong port, has commenced. New services, marking tremendous improvements in connectivity with our North East such as the tri weekly Kolkata Agartala bus service have also commenced.The trial run of the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal (BBIN) transport corridor has been finalised for October. Both nations seem to be seized of the need to maintain the momentum achieved so far.

The scope for enhancement however is so vast, that much more is waiting to be done.A telling example is on the use of inland waterways, the protocol for which was renewed during the visit. Of the total of approximately $ 6.486 billion of bilateral trade with India during fiscal 2013-14, goods valuing just 0.3 percent of this amount utilised this particular mode of transportation (Daily Star 14 May 2015). Given the inevitable clogging of Bangladesh’s surface infrastructure with exponential growth of traffic consequent to opening of the BBIN corridor, maximum exploitationof such less utilised means of communication becomes imperative for India. Only through imaginative leveraging of such neglected options can the potential of the agreements be truly realised.

This enhanced engagement brings to the fore a different set of challenges. Bangladesh’s geographical positioning makes it a very important partner for India.The country has a stable economy with a steady growth rate of six percent (expected to continue for another ten years as per the HSBC Global Forecast) and a dynamic leadership committed towards development. Some of this will be achieved by greater engagement with India. Plugging into portions of each other’s economy while enhancing trust levels also ensures a level of mutual dependence. With development of its own North East, Indian stakes in Bangladesh will increase further. It is important therefore to ensure that irritants of any nature do not derail this expanding relationship which is critical to India’s Act East policy.Overall, national security concerns demand that India remains vigilant about Bangladesh’s internal and external concerns so as to progress this relationship accordingly.

Bangladesh’sinternal security situation continues to cause concern. On July 02 this year, Reuters reported the arrest of 12 militants including the chief of Al Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) in Dhaka. Secular thinkers, writers and intellectuals have been in the cross hairs of terrorists with three bloggers paying with their lives in the last one year for their professed beliefs. The BNP, the largest opposition party with a history of consorting with fundamentalists continues to have its hard core of followers. A recent report in the South Asia Monitor of 06 July  describes how the Jamaat-e-Islami (currently deregistered as a political party, and whose leaders have been hanged for their roles in the Liberation War) is using motivated proxies to invite young people of both sexes to undergo ‘religious instruction’, ostensibly to understand their religion better. Pakistan’s ISI continues to have a hold on various rungs of the administration, judiciary and the armed forces. With a more open door policy and liberalised transit and trade arrangements underway (both for India and later for other BBIN nations),much greater efforts and detailed coordination are needed from stakeholders to institute foolproof security safeguards to cater for the full spectrum of threats which such agencies have the potential to generate. Hopefully the blueprint for the same is under preparation.

Though illegal immigration was not touched upon during the Prime Ministerial visit, it remains a live issue for India. Assam is updating its National Citizenship Register prior to the 2016 Assembly elections. The State Government is being accused by rival political parties of attempting to include the names of Bangladeshi immigrants who have entered the state after 1971. The blasts in Burdwan in West Bengal last year are yet another example of the disastrous outcome of combining vote bank politics with lax local administration.It is time for India to broach this topic with Bangladesh once again. Introduction of the work permit system for Bangladeshis who wish to work here while simultaneously pursuing existing legal mechanisms to detect and deport infiltrators is one solution.

In foreign relations, Bangladesh, has pursued a policy of ‘more friends, fewer enemies’. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited the country in September 2014, bringing with him 22 CEOs and 65 senior officials, while earlier announcing aid worth $5.9 billion over a four year period. China’s interest in Bangladesh is well documented. It is the main supplier of military hardware and has the widest range of investments in that country, including cooperation in the nuclear and space fields. The USA is sympathetic to the current government and is Bangladesh’s largest export market. India’s footprint too is now set to enlarge. Within this maze of competing and sometimes conflicting strategic interests, India has to chart a fine course while ensuring that sensitivities of the host country are not affected. Common concerns (such as water sharing of the Brahmaputra) must be highlighted, and common cause made to ensure favourable gains for both nations.

India and Bangladesh are set on a mutually beneficial trajectory, which could become a model for SAARC cooperation. Implementing the agreements with due diligence is the key. 

The authour is a veteran of the Indian Army. Views expressed by the author are personal.