'Staying the Course' in Bangladesh

India celebrated another Vijay Diwas this 16 December. Given the current maturing of Indo Bangladesh relations after 40 years of tumult commencing from 1975, it is an opportune moment to review recent happenings in that country and analyse implications for the future.

Under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh continues to astutely manage its foreign relations and security issues with major powers of the region and the USA. It has negotiated with both China and Japan for development of its seaboard. Japan has managed to win the contract for development of Bangladesh’s first deep water port at Matarbari[i] and further announced a loan of $ 1.1 billion this December, its largest to Bangladesh since 1974, for various other projects[ii]. However, simultaneous talks are on with China for construction of another deep water port at Sonadia, one of the designated ports of the Maritime Silk Route, while discussions on the BCIM Economic Corridor from Yunnan to Dhaka and Kolkata via Myanmar continue.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh and US Navies along with the US Marine Corps completed CARAT 2015, their fifth annual bilateral  exercise in early October ( the CARAT series is now in its 21^st year, featuring the US along with Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Timor-Leste)[iii].China continues to retain its position as the principal supplier of military equipment to the Bangladesh Armed Forces and as per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), has over the last five years handed over five maritime patrol vessels, two corvettes, 44 tanks, and 16 fighter jets, as well as surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles.In addition, some Ming class submarines are slotted to enter service with the Bangladesh Navy by 2016[iv].Also as per latest reports in the Daily Star of 13 December 2015, Russia has handed over five Mi 17 armed helicopters to Bangladesh, an outcome of the wide ranging defence agreements signed in 2013.[v]

Bangladesh’s exports are growing at a healthy 13.63 percent year on year as of November 2015 despite the global economic slowdown[vi]. Its steel industry has beaten the global trend by reporting a clear 15 percent growth last year, based on the demands of large infrastructure projects, with domestic steelmakers expecting demand to increase for the next decade[vii]. These indicators have prompted Sheikh Hasina to go in for one of the largest infrastructure projects in the country, the Padma Bridge, relying purely on domestic investment after the World Bank pulled out on allegations of corruption. Also, Kaushik Basu, Chief Economist with the World Bank and former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India has been quoted as saying that Bangladesh would reach China’s pace of growth next year[viii].

The peaceful transfer of populations from within respective enclaves in India and Bangladesh has been carried out. Just 980 persons have chosen to take Indian citizenship and move across the border[ix]. Sheikh Hasina’s government continues with the trials of war criminals of 1971 and has hanged influential members of the JeI including ministers in previous governments in the teeth of motivated Western opposition. With Pakistan too registering strong opposition to this event, the Bangladesh foreign minister has gone on record to say that his country was ‘evaluating its relations with Pakistan’[x]. At the same time, Sheikh Hasina’s steadfast cooperation on anti-terrorism issues, as once again witnessed in the handing over of Anup Chetia and the arrest of FICN couriers in the first week of December, bodes well for ties with India. With the large number of agreements following Prime Minister Modi’s trip in June this year in various stages of implementation, the outgoing Indian High Commissioner Shri Pankaj Saran aptly summed up the current state of ties by saying that “we have been able to make progress on issues which were stuck for decades.”[xi]Clearly, Bangladesh is the pivot  for India’s ‘Look East’ policy.

The picture of progress painted above is in danger of being torn to shreds if the forces of Islamic fundamentalism which are once again gathering momentum, are allowed to consolidate further. Bangladesh is undoubtedly far more stable and prosperous today than at any time in its history but the legacies of divisive politics and pandering to communalists and other anti-national elements by successive regimes have taken deep root, and cannot be eradicated within the time span of the current administration.Ansar al Islam, a local extremist group now claiming affiliation to Al Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) has taken responsibility for the killings of secular bloggers earlier in the year[xii]. A plan to target secular writers and free thinkers has emerged, with the reported release of a hit list of 84 such intellectuals[xiii]. Simultaneously, reports regarding the presence of the Islamic State (IS) in Bangladeshhave started pouring in. As per the Dhaka police,more than 30 followers of the Islamic State, mainly students from prosperous families who were planning to travel to Syria or Afghanistan to fight, have been arrested [xiv].

The IS, in the latest issue of its Dabiq magazine has claimed responsibility for the recent murders of individual foreigners in Bangladesh as also attacks on Shias and policemen from September onwards. In an article titled ‘The Revival of Jehad in Bengal”[xv], it has proclaimed ‘Bengal' as the new battleground and released a recruitment audio for young Bangladesh is,exhorting them to join jehad[xvi]. The Dabiq article further mentions that a regional leader has been nominated for ‘soldiers of the Khilafah in Bengal’.[xvii] The Government however appears to be in denial, with the Prime Minister reiterating during a meeting with US officials on 13 December that therewas no IS in Bangladesh[xviii].

The next general election is scheduled in 2018. The aftermath of the previous election had plunged the nation into crisis, and its legitimacy continues to be challenged even today. Already there is simmering discontent about the autocratic rule of the Awami League and its bid to stifle democracy. Also, sections of civil society perceive the current government to be ambivalent in tackling the violence this year and acknowledging the gravity of the situation, probably to retain some space with majority voters in this overwhelmingly Muslim nation[xix]. Overall, Sheikh Hasina has a tough job to change the perceptions of civil society and go after extremists of all hues relentlessly, without alienating her voter base and giving the advantage to her political adversaries.

The JuM Bangladesh has been held responsible for the Burdwan blasts last year, and its modus operandi as revealed through investigations is chilling. The implications of radicalisation by the IS on both sides of the border as is being witnessed elsewhere in the world, are too dangerous to be ignored. Neither the Central government nor concerned State governments in India can afford any laxity in tracking sympathisers, identifying potential recruits and initiating de-radicalisation programs.Equally important is counter terrorism training and military to military cooperation with Bangladesh, which requires much greater attention as compared to training with militaries of other nations.India’s stakes in Bangladesh are huge and growing exponentially, with the future well-being and security of the entire North East, West Bengal and Bihar in the balance. It is clear that only by both nations staying the entire course, over all fronts,can the hard work of the last few years bear fruit.