Analysis of White Paper on Chinese Military Strategy, 2015 And Its Implication for India

Introduction

A Defense White Paper is a key policy document which provides the Government's vision for defense. It is a public document which outlines the broad strategic policy framework for defence planning, with a medium term outlook[1]; it also sets out the Government's analysis of the country's security environment, both domestic and international.  China took out its first White Paper on Defence in 1998.Since then almost every alternate year it releases a defence-related document reviewing the security environment, setting goals and guidelines for Peoples Liberation Army (PLA). The papers generally follow a standard format and build on from the precedingdefence paper.Explanatory notes providing additional details on policies that may have already been announced may also form part of the paper. These papers are the only official document declaring PLA’s contours of military thinking, although more often than not, earlier, werebroad-based, vague and bereft of details. The trend has changed in recent years to be more transparent, perhaps to lend credibility to China’s ‘peaceful rise’.

China’s Military Strategy 2015

China released it 9^thWhite Paper on defence on 26 May 15. This paper is distinctive from previous papers in a way that it deliberates primarily on the ‘Military Strategies’ for the first time. The paper is structured into six parts, with deliberation on the national security situation,strategic guidelines for PLA butmakes no major disclosure on modernization.The theme of the paper remains on ‘peace and development’ with reiteration of ‘Chinese dream of great national rejuvenation’, as the national goal.  The main emphasis remains on Asia-Pacific region and South China Sea (SCS), with a mentionofoverallsecurity of maritime interests.

The national strategic goal stated in the White Paper is “to complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2021 when the CPC celebrates its centenary; and the building of a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious by 2049 when the People’s Republic of China (PRC) marks its centenary”.The timelines of stated national goal are in consonance with the military modernization program given in the 2006 DefenceWhite Paper.

The US and its allies in Asia-Pacific are seen as a major threat to China’s national & territorial interest along its periphery andthe US is also blamed obliquely for interfering in the South China Sea (SCS) dispute. The paper challenges US global dominance and indicates that the world is trending towards multi-polarity. The demonstration of assertiveness on the SCS issue is clearly visible in the paper and justifies Chinese claim on the islands & islets in SCS. SCS is likely to remain a flash point in Asia and a possible ‘curtain raiser’ for China’s global aspirations. However,the paper remains silent on East China Sea dispute involving Japan, which may be hinting at change in the policy. The Taiwan issuefinds brief mention as an ‘unfinished’ agenda, while militancy in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region(XUAR)and Tibet independence movement are seen as main internal security threats. The PRC blames ‘East Turkistan Independence Movement’ for unrest in Xinjiang. Militancy in XUAR is largely disorganized and seems to have limited external support, but recent incidents suggest that the internal security remains a major challenge for the Chinese dream of great national rejuvenation.

The overall security challenges defined in the paper for China encompass far more subjects, extend over a greater range, and cover a longer time span than at any time in the country’s history. The paper also enumerates the strategic tasks for its Armed Forces;with commitment “to resolutely uphold the leadership of the CPC.”Navy, Space, Cyber and strategic deterrence have been defined as new domains of warfare and likely to emerge as the main trends for future force modernization. More interestingly, the statement that ‘the new requirement coming from the country’s growing strategic interests, the armed forces will actively participate in both regional and international security cooperation and effectively secure China’s overseas interests’ indicates the possibility of developing expeditionary capabilities of the PRC in the near future. China’sincreased participation in United Nation Peacekeeping missions and anti-piracy operations are testimony of its intentions to garner a larger role for itself at global level. Other forays like showing the flag in Europe, Black Sea, Africa and Latin America are indications of the PLA’s ambitions to expand its footprints globally.

The militarystrategy of ‘Local war Under the Condition of Informationization’ adopted in 2004 under the strategic concept of ‘Active Defence’ remains the overall strategic guidance for PLA force modernization and capacity enhancement. Active Defence in the ‘new situation’, has been enumerated many times, the ‘new situation’ is likely to be the turbulence due to the internal fault lines in China and border and territorial disputes with its neighbors. Commitment to ‘Active Defence’ has been reemphasized by adhering to ‘unity of strategic defence and operational and tactical offense’; and that “We will not attack unless we are attacked, but we will surely counter attack if attacked”.“Integrated combat force will be employed to prevail in system-vs-system operations featuring information dominance, precision strikes and joint operations” infer that the PRC will focus on equipping its armed forces with state-of-art weapon systems comparable with the West, integrate system and forces with ability to dominate information space.

The PLA Navy (PLAN) remains the focus area for the PRC and its transformation into ‘blue water’ navy has been reiterated.The PLAN capability enhancement will focus from “offshore waters defense” to the combination of “offshore waters defense” and “open seas protection” ability with an aim ‘to manage the seas, protect maritime rights and interests and protect the security of strategic SLOCs’. Chinese blue water naval ambition will make it a dominant player in Indian Ocean Region (IOR) in coming years, which will pose serious challenges to Indian Navy& US dominance in the IOR. The IOR is likely to emerge as new space for Sino-India military competition. In future,the PLAN may establish naval bases in the IOR to protect its ‘strategic SLOCs’ as bulk of its sea trade is through this region. Seychelles, Oman, Kenya, Sudan, Pakistan and Maldives are some of the countries which can be exploited by China in lieu of lucrative economic and military deals.  The Chinese Maritime Silk Road (MSR) is an important aspect of China’s grand strategy of ‘strategic access’ specially in naval domain. The idea of reviving MSR allows China to build its infrastructure for access and depending on its location and specifications; this infrastructure can be exploited both for economic gains and external defence.

Outer space and cyber space are defined as the new frontiers of future dispute and strategic competition. The document states “China has all along advocated the peaceful use of outer space, opposed the weaponization of and arms race in outer space, and taken an active part in international space cooperation.” The White Paper however remains silent on the two ASAT demonstration conducted by China in 2007 & 2013.

The White Paper also emphasises on improving the military human resource to meet the requirements of informationised warfare. ‘In line with the strategic requirement of mobile operations and multi-dimensional offense and defence, the PLA Army (PLAA) will continue to reorient from theater defence to trans-theater mobility” indicates that ‘Trans Regional Support Operation’ (TRSO) for PLA will continue and the formations will be made capable of undertaking operations in other military area commands.The concept of single theatre orientation is over. The overhaul of the PLA structure and internal functioning is also set as a main agenda to improve the day to day functioning of the PLA. Xi Jinping is conducting an aggressive anti-corruption campaign to clean up the PLA.  The civil military integration has been discussed in detail, under the concept of ‘People’s War’ in emerging conditions.

Improving military relations with the US and developing new model to strengthen defense dialogues, exchanges and cooperation find mention in the paper but the implementation by an increasingly wary ASEAN community on SCS need to be watched. “China’s armed forces will further their exchanges and cooperation with Russian military within the framework of the comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination between China and Russia, and foster a comprehensive, diverse and sustainable framework to promote military relations in more fields and level” clearly indicates a growing strategic relation between the two countries. Russia has emerged as the main military partner and exporter of critical technology and weapon system to China in recent years.The Sino-Russia nexus is emerging as a counter to US rebalancing in Asia Pacific and has the potential of expanding its footprints westward to Europe.

Implications for India

The Military Strategy White Paper mainly focuses on the US, with no mention of India.  The force modernization with priority on ‘Blue Water Navy’ and “Open Seas Projection” indicates its regional ambitions of naval dominance and global force projection.  India and China are competing for the same strategic space in South Asia and the IOR. China’s ambitious MSR strategy also point towards her desire to dominate the region. The White paper highlights that “the traditional mentality that land outweighs sea must be abandoned, and great importance has to be attached to managing the seas and oceans and protecting maritime rights and interests”, clearly indicatesa shift of focus toward developing naval capabilities with the sea becoming the future area of regional and global competition.  The future may see deployment of the PLAN’s assets in the IOR to secure its SLOCs, which will have seriousbearing on Indian security calculus. India may have to strengthen its Andaman and Nicobar Command to dominate and secure its strategic interest in IOR. 

With respect to other domains, China has demonstrated its desire and ability to effectively dominate space and electro-magnetic spectrum, which still remains a grey area for India. India needs to strengthen its capabilities and build a deterrence strategy to counter the emerging challenges in non-conventional domain.

Conclusion

The White Paper on Defencelargely focuses on US rebalancing to Asia Pacific and the SCS dispute.Japan’s effort to rejuvenate its defence forces is also seen as a threat to peace of the region. Naval sphere and high seas is emerging as the focus area for PRC’s comprehensive force modernization. Though the paper does not mention India but the implication of Chinese military capabilities enhancement will have bearing on Indian security calculus and warrants closer scrutiny of China’s muscular intent in the coming years.