Strategic Realignment With the United States- Should India Sail into Uncharted Waters?

There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.

Julius Caesar Act 4, scene 3, 218–224

On 25 Jan 2015 on the eve of the historic occasion of President Obama being the Chief Guest at India’s Republic day parade, a U.S.-India Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region was released[i]. The salient points of the Strategic vision relevant to security were as under:

• A closer partnership between the United States and India,the world’s two largest democracies,is indispensable to promoting peace, prosperity and stability in the Asia- Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. 
• To support regional economic integration of South, Southeast and Central Asia,Encourage free trade and greater people-to-people linkages.
• Affirmation of the importance of safeguarding maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation and over flight throughout the region, especially in the South China Sea. 
• To ask all parties to avoid the threat or use of force and pursue resolution of territorial and maritime disputes through peaceful means as per international laws. 
• To achieve regional security by opposing terrorism, piracy, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction within or from the region and by increasing ties among Asian powers.
• Strengthen regional forums, explore additional multilateral opportunities for engagement, and pursue areas where capacity can be built in the region that bolsters long-term peace and prosperity for all. 

To carry out an objective analysis it is pertinent to restate the time-tested words relevant to politics and International Relations stated by Lord Palmerston, who served twice as the British Prime Minister in the mid-19^th century. He famously said that there are no eternal allies or perpetual enemies, but the interests of a country are eternal and perpetual and to follow them is a duty.

The subtle tilt in Indian foreign policy towards the US[ii] is a change from the traditional Indian foreign policy which was non-alignment with a socialist flavour. It has made some of the Indian policy makers feel that India’s traditional friend Russia (erstwhile USSR) may feel piqued. Reports of the likelihood of sale of Russian military equipment to Pakistan have aggravated Indian fears that Russia is likely to align with Pakistan, which, keeping in mind geopolitics, does not suit India.However, it should be clear that Russiahas limitations in what it can do for Pakistan. It cannot meet all the needs of the Pakistani armed forces in the manner that USA or China can.Presently Russia’s lifting of its arms embargo on Pakistan and offer to sell four Mi-35m (Hind-E) attack helicopters to Pakistan should be seen more as a move to seek a market for arms exports at a time when its traditional arms markets have shrunk. It is unlikely that Russia will emerge as a major benefactor for Pakistan for a variety of reasons. In the past, Moscow has been very critical of Pakistan’s ties with the USA. The Russians will not forget that the U2 piloted by Gary Powers which was shot down by the Russians in 1960 had flown from Peshawar, a longtime US base for flying spying missions over USSR at a time when there wereno surveillance satellites. The Pakistani military establishment’s propensity to use extremist groups to further their nation’s strategic ends is also something which the Russians are not comfortable with. And it remains worried about this tendency in view of the reported training given to Chechen militants in Pakistan and Afghanistan in the past[iii]. Hence, it is unlikely that Russia will actively take Pakistan into its closest circle of friends. The Pakistani outreach towards Russia could be to show the US that it has other optionsto build new relationships in the changing world order. However, this is likely to be bluff in the manner Pakistan has tried to portray possession of Tactical Nuclear Weapons as a means to extract concessions from the US, including being admitted to the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

India’s prime interests at the moment areto buildup its economy and also build relations which secure its security interests vis a vis China. Russian and Chinese relations have improved and China no longer has any reasons to fear any Russian hegemonistic designs.The Russians in any case have neither the reason nor the capability to have them vis a vis China.

However, India needs pressure points to gently nudge China towards improving relations with it with the ultimate objective of resolving the boundary dispute. The dispute is the most persistent hobble restraining India’s quest for security. Between the Kashmir dispute and the Indo-China boundary dispute the latter has a greater likelihood of resolution. Resolution of the Indo-China dispute will take Indianmilitary power to a level of preponderance that it will be able to apply pressure on Pakistan to resolve the Kashmir dispute. Consequently, this is something that Pakistan will strive the most to prevent from happening. Even if Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence is considered sufficient to prevent Indian military superiority from influencing Pakistan, resolution of the Sino-Indian dispute will give a powerful impetus to India’s economic prosperity. No secessionist elements can subvert the public to part from an oasis of economic prosperity. Economic prosperity will not only bind Kashmir more firmly to India, it will also douse similar sentiments in the North Eastern parts of India.

Traditionally Indian foreign policy has always appeared more comfortable to remain in a ‘status quo’ mode. It is pertinent to remember that over the ages the bitterest of foes turn into friends with change of circumstances. Hence there should be no concept of ‘status quo’ in foreign policy. Some examples are England and France, USA and Japan, USA and Vietnam, Russia and China and Egypt and Israel. These countries have seen their relations turn from implacable enmity to strong friendship, albeit at this point of time in history. Similarly India needs to have diplomatic engagement leading to rapprochement with China. A delicate tilt towards USA could give the much needed impetus to motivate China towards a clear rapprochement. About 60 years of strain in Sino-Indianrelations is too short a time to label the relations as permanently frozen. A catalyst is needed to induce a thaw. The catalyst could be a tilt towards USA.

This article believes that, in the manner as stated in the lines from ‘Julius Caesar’ given above,an opportune moment exists at this point of time for India to change its status quo foreign policy and shift its relations towards USA. USA’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ and India’s ‘Look East’ policy are aligned to mesh with each other’s national interests. A bold Indian move may appear to be an initiative to bolster its standing as a regional power and a counterweight to the strategic influence of China.However, its essence should be to resolve the Indo-China boundary dispute. India must bear in mind the saying that “The danger of venturing into uncharted waters is not nearly as dangerous as staying on shore, waiting for your boat to come in”[iv].