Maldives: Safeguarding Sovereignty in the Dress of Defiance.

The External Affairs Minister of India paid a two-day visit to the southern-most littoral member of SAARC- Maldives, on October 10 and 11, 2015. It was anticipated that both the countries would accord high importance to this visit given the palpable strain in bilateral relations after former Maldivian President Mohamed Nasheed’s detention and subsequent cancellation of Narendra Modi’s visit to this archipelago. All turned well except for a statement issued by Maldivian President’s office- ‘This government will not tolerate foreign parties’ interference in the country’s domestic issues.’[i]

After this blunt remark from the Maldivian side, India tried to mend the issue by saying that this remark was not directed at India but meant for United Nations and Commonwealth which have taken a tough stance on the current political dispensation in Maldives.[ii]

First of all, it is difficult to comprehend why India is trying to fix things on behalf of Maldives’ audacity, as if the onus to have cordial relations lie only with one side. Second, if that remark was meant for consumption of international players, then why was it made in presence of India’s top diplomat without any provocation by external agencies like the media? In diplomacy, timing is key and such uninvited remarkscasts a doubtif Maldives attaches similar importance to this visit as its Indian counterpart?

This is not for the first time when Maldives has gone on displaying such an imperious attitude towards India. In September 2012, then President, Mohamed Waheed went to Urumqi in China and praised China’s policy of non-interference in Maldives’ internal affairs ‘unlike other influential countries’.[iii] Which were these ‘other influential countries’ that he was trying to refer to? Given the politically charged atmosphere in Maldives at that point in time, their President was clearly accusing India from Chinese soil. Then he went on to strike a $5 billion deal with China and eventually dismissed Indian infrastructure giant, GMR Group arbitrarily from Male airport in November 2012, without any negotiations.[iv]

Given this legacy of ruffling Indian sensitivities, one really wonders if India is a banana republic or some remotely located country on the global map that can be pushed around by Maldives like this? As hinted by Maldivian President during his meeting with Sushma Swaraj early this month, is India really interfering in internal affairs of Maldives? The one word answer to that question is- No. And here are the reasons why:

• India did not interfere in anyway when lawfully elected President Mohamed Nasheed was removed in a political coup in February 2012, and Waheed became the new President. Both the parties in Maldives voluntarily asked India to be the guarantor, so Maldives had approached India and not the other way round. The Indian decision to immediately recognize Mohamed Waheed as the new Maldivian President is, to this day, seen as a diplomatic error and analysts believe India should have pressurized Maldives to have a constitutional transfer of power. Instead of recognizing India’s non-interference then, their President went along and utilized his position to curry favour China.
• Through its systematic acts of commission and omission, Maldives has made the entire Indian Ocean Region a playground for external agencies. Therefore, as a regional power, India has to have some power projection in its immediate periphery, which is cardinal for its maritime security.
• India doesn’t want Maldives to become a citadel of Islamic State (IS) as this will badly affect India’s national security, economic interests and regional stability of Asian subcontinent.
• India wants a genuine political solution for the ongoing political standoff in Maldives, where Nasheed has been jailed for 13 years on the charges of terrorism. This need not be seen as meddling in internal affairs. Almost the entire international community is standing behind Nasheed while denouncing judicial lapses in his hearing. This voice has been strengthened on October 5 as the UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention ruled Nasheed’s imprisonment “arbitrary” and has demanded his immediate release.[v]  Now will Maldives go and accuse UN in presence of Ban ki-moon? When will this pattern of defiance halt?

The larger question is what makes Maldives flaunt this imperious attitude amidst mounting international pressure? The single line answer would be- through assured economic assistance in the guise of infrastructure development, mainly by China and to an extent by Saudi Arabia. China has pumped major investment in Maldives which includes a bridge project connecting the airport to Male and contributing heavily to tourist inflow. Maldives is jointly promoting the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” and is a member of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).[vi]Both the countries are expanding bilateral trade and investment and are poised to sign China-Maldives FTA by end of this year. In July 2015, the Maldivian government tabled a land bill, approved hastily within a pace of few hours, which is believed to have passed keeping Chinese interests in mind. Under the provisions of this bill, foreigners will have to invest more than one billion dollars to purchase land within specified project site and at least seventy percent of project must be on reclaimed land.[vii] China has history of specializing in land reclamation which it has done adeptly in South China Sea.

It is cardinal for China to win over Maldives’ trust to realise its larger objective of getting a strategic edge in Indian Ocean Region to meet US naval and military challenges. China is further likely to deepen its ties with Maldives as its political influence in Sri Lanka has receded to some extent. Fully realising the advantage of its strategic location and unabating Chinese assistance, the Maldivian Government has grown over-confident and defiant. It is behaving like a kid who never pays heed to anyone’s advice while swimming, for he knows his diver father won’t let him drown come what may.

Sovereignty of every country is sacrosanct. All the while when Maldivian authorities are blowing the trumpet of respecting their sovereignty, they also need to ensure that the actions which they tout as ‘in the national interests’ are in fact not a part of some great game meant to serve other’s national interests at the cost of Maldivian interests. Maldives seems to be entering into a vicious web that ensures its continued dependency on China to serve larger Chinese objectives, which may turn into the twenty first century equivalent of the US’ Monroe Doctrine for Latin America. It is high time the Maldivian authorities realise the perils of neo-colonisation, take reality check on their political instability rather than defying it, and then decide which way to go. Then alone would the sovereignty of this country and independence of its citizens be preserved.