Pakistan's darkest hour

THE brutal assassination of Benazir Bhutto is a stark and gory reminder that the Frankenstein monster of Jihadi terrorism created by the Pakistan army and the ISI is now completely and inexorably out of control. It is also a stunning blow to and an ominous warning for pro-democracy, pro-West political leaders.

The spate of suicide bombings, including a dastardly attack during Eid prayers in a mosque, and several attacks on military convoys and personnel in the recent past clearly highlight the grim reality that the radical al Qaeda and Taliban extremists are steadily gaining ground and the Pakistan army is sinking further into a deep morass. The morale of the extremists is at an all time high, while that of the army and para-military forces has slumped to the nadir.

Since the storming of the Lal Masjid in a military operation to rid it of militant clerics and armed madrasa students in July 2007, suicide bombings have become an almost daily occurrence in all the large cities of Pakistan and have generated a fear psychosis.

The people of Pakistan are waiting anxiously for the army to get its act together and extend its control over the lawless Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in NWFP and for the police forces to girdle up for urban counter-terrorism. The radical extremist groups outside the ISI's control have now been further emboldened and in the next few months they will extend their area of operations further into Afghanistan and Jammu and Kashmir.

The Pakistan army has proved itself adept at sponsoring and supporting insurgencies in neighbouring countries, as witnessed by the proxy wars that the army and the ISI fought in Afghanistan and Indian Punjab in the 1980s and then in Jammu and Kashmir since 1989. However, it has been tested and clearly found wanting in its ability to plan and execute counter-terrorism operations efficiently.

Lacking strategic foresight, the army and the ISI failed to make a simple military assessment – indiscriminately arming and equipping religious fanatics and sundry warlords inevitably leads to the eventual emergence of an uncontrollable monster that relishes biting the hand that feeds it.

Now the cows have come well and truly home. Hundreds of army personnel have been ambushed and "taken hostage" with their weapons, many have refused to fight their own Sunni and Pushtun brothers, some have surrendered and still others have deserted. There are even reports of some soldiers having committed fratricide while on operational duty. Army casualties are mounting and kill-ratios are abysmally low despite the use of artillery and helicopter gunships.

The militants are becoming bolder and more aggressive and are shifting their focus from operating against the infidels – NATO's ISAF and US forces in Afghanistan – to directly fighting the Pakistan army that is seen to be in league with the Americans in the so-called global war on terror (GWOT). The extremists are gradually gaining control over territory and have begun to expand their area of operations. From here the turmoil is bound to spread towards the Indus River and Punjab. Simultaneous with internal instability, the insurgency in Balochistan could flare up again at any moment as the Baloch people's grievances have not been redressed to their satisfaction.

With clearly discernible poor junior leadership, evidently loose command and control, inadequate training, signs of insubordination and indiscipline, increasing incidents of cowardice in the face of danger, the Pakistan army is losing its much-vaunted status of a professional army.

The US was betting on Benazir Bhutto coming back to power and will now be forced to back another candidate. Despite all his machinations, General Musharraf's days in power are now numbered as the people of Pakistan want him out.

The US may try to use its influence with the Pakistan army to install an untainted moderate person in power. Some one like General Jehangir Karamat, a former COAS and Pakistan's former ambassador to the US, may be acceptable to the army and may temporarily satisfy the aspirations of the people for a change.

Instability in Pakistan does not portend well for India as radical extremism could eventually spill over across the Radcliff Line if the Indian security forces are not vigilant in a pro-active manner. In fact, past experience shows that the Pakistan army will not hesitate to divert the most virulent extremists to Jammu and Kashmir and other parts of India.

In case that happens in violation of the ongoing India-Pakistan rapprochement, Kashmir will face a "hot" winter with a large increase in infiltration attempts in the lower reaches of the Pir Panjal Range and, consequently, an increase in the number of incidents of violence on soft targets. This is undoubtedly Pakistan's darkest hour. Pakistan's future depends on how its army copes with the self-created disaster of radical extremism.

Courtesy: The Tribune, December 29,2007.

Link: http://www.tribuneindia.com/2007/20071229/edit.htm#7