Arming the Indian Arsenal

The international arms bazaar, left struggling after the end of the Cold War, has been looking up since the late 1990s. All indicators suggest that the volume of military business is likely to grow in the future. With global military spending pegged at $ 1.3 trillion, out of which arms trade accounts for around 30 percent, the lucrative arms business is likely to prosper for major arms producers. On the suppliers’ side, the United States is not only the biggest spender on arms but also the largest arms merchant perpetually in search of new markets. The other contender, Russia, lying low for most of the 1990s is showing signs of recovery and has regained its position as the world’s second largest arms supplier. The European defence industry also is on an upward trajectory after years of consolidation and restructuring, while countries like Israel have enhanced their business profile in the arms market. On the recipient side, countries like China, India, Saudi Arabia, and regions like Middle East and South East Asia show a remarkable appetite for arms.

Trends in India’s military modernisation and arms acquisitions for the past two decades suggest a deviation from conventional logic. India’s military expenditure witnessed consistent increase during the 1990s when it was just the opposite at a global level, particularly in procurement demands in the United States, Europe and Russia. This suggests that the end of the Cold War and its promised ‘peace dividend’ meant little for India’s security. Instead, domestic politics, regional security considerations and power ambitions drove Indian military modernization efforts. With India’s strategic thinking reflecting her desire to be a major global player, complemented by a high growth rate enabling an enhancement of her comprehensive national power, India has felt the need for possession of weapons systems that would match her national aspirations. Expanded strategic maritime interests spanning from the Gulf of Hormuz to the Malacca Straits, contemplation of ‘beyond-region’ military exigencies, interventionist and humanitarian, and diplomatic efforts to engage major powers compel India to reconsider ways to enhance elements of her ‘hard’ power through a reasonable blending of both offensive and defensive capabilities. 

A closer look at India’s present and future military hardware requirements says it all. The last one decade has seen eventual induction/agreed supply through license production or otherwise of big-ticket purchases like Su-30 MKI multi-role fighters, Hawk jet trainers, Kilo-class submarines, Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier and T-90 main battle tanks (MBTs). In the last three years, India has signed multi-billion dollar – a $3.5 billion deal for acquisition and eventual construction of six Scorpenes, a couple of which would have air independent propulsion features; a $ 1.5 billion deal to acquire an aircraft carrier; and $ 3 billion for 66 Hawks, Tu-142 bombers, and assorted weaponry. The most recent deals with Russia include joint development of fifth-generation combat aircraft, lease of Akula class nuclear powered submarines, joint development of medium lift multi-role transport aircraft (to replace the fleet of AN-32s) and more than 500 T-90 MBTs. The Aero India show in early 2007 at Bangalore saw hectic aerospace business, reportedly pegged at over $ 6 billion. India’s near future shopping list includes acquisition of $ 10.2 billion worth 126 multi-role combat aircraft (MRCA), RFP for which has already been issued to six vendors, an array of sophisticated weaponry for the Special Forces, and six warships. Not surprisingly, the share of capital expenditure in India’s total defence expenditure has crossed 40 percent to touch $ 8 billion – a 300 percent increase since 2002-03. If capital purchases worth over $ 40 billion planned over the 11th defence plan period (2007 – 2012) are any indication, will be the world’s biggest arms market for the next couple of decades. 

It is interesting to note that is also diversifying her supply sources. While Russia, India’s largest weapons supplier accounting for around 70 percent of the Indian inventory, is keen not to let slip away, the United States is wooing to get a slice of its huge arms bazaar. The American ‘Iron Triangle’, consisting of the Congress, armed forces and the military industry, is active to expand into India. While it will be interesting to observe how the world’s two biggest arms suppliers jostle for influence in the Indian market, countries like France, Israel and even the UK are also likely to vie for the military business. 

Most of Indis’s recent acquisitions have been either through direct purchases or licensed production, which suggests that India has benefited little by way of military technology acquisition. This is critical to achieve ‘self-reliance in defence’, given that the domestic arms industry’s has been unable to make a meaningful contribution. While concepts like Future Infantry Soldier as System (F-INSAS), medium combat aircraft, hypersonic fighters and re-usable missiles may take time to mature for induction, the challenge lies in enhancing the current level of contribution of indigenous military technology. Indian strategy in current and future arms acquisitions must emphasise the need for technology acquisition and absorption. India’s ‘arms card’ can be a major bargaining chip for technology inflow through policies like ToTs and Offsets. But such policies need to be crafted and negotiated carefully as producers would be chary to part with their hard developed technologies. In principle, must develop strategic partnerships with major countries so that these could help develop ’s domestic defence industry. Therefore, a holistic approach to enhance military capability is desirable. The biggest challenge before the Indian leadership lies in addressing the growing technology gap, primarily through self-reliance in defence technologies.