Now, and Again

Terror haunts us again. On 26 November 2008, ‘new terrorism’ struck the city of Mumbai anew. Cafe Leopold and Chabad House in South Mumbai, the Chattrapati Shivaji Terminus, the Cama Hospital and the hotels Taj Mahal and Oberoi Trident were all attacked, but it is the image of the Taj Mahal hotel on fire, that has become the symbol of those deadly attacks. It is this image which adorns the cover of many books which attempt to analyse this incident. It wasn't the first time the city was struck by terror, nor was it the most violent in terms of casualties and injuries. But what it lacked in statistics, it made up in ferocity, in audacity, and in sheer spectacle. The citizens of the country rose in outrage – there were impromptu and orchestrated marches, the government threatened the responsible parties with potential military action and used every weapon in its diplomatic arsenal to bring them to justice. New agencies were established, new laws were legislated and new ministers were appointed, all to one end – never again.

And for quite some time, the sentiment rang true. Granted, there were two incidents of terrorism in the city of Guwahati, a few months after 26/11, both with casualties. Yet, neither of them was in the same vein as the incidents the country had experienced continuously in 2008. And so, the lull had continued.

But more than 14 months after 26/11, an illusion of peace and calm was shattered, when on 13 February 2010, an explosion ripped apart the German Bakery cafe in the heart of Pune. Initially, a gas cylinder was assumed to be the culprit, the police later confirming that the explosion was the result of an act of terrorism (the very first in the city) – an IED, hidden in a bag allegedly left behind by a patron. The explosion was triggered at 7.30 PM, when a waiter attempted to open the bag. Nine people, including one foreigner, died in the explosion, and 60 people, including some foreigners, were injured. The device which triggered it was not a sophisticated one and could very well have been put together locally.

Media reports have already identified the Indian Mujahideen (IM) as the possible culprit, given the similarity of the Pune incident to many of those blamed on the IM in 2008, including the use of RDX and ammonium nitrate and the fact that it happened on a Saturday evening. The authorities, however, have been circumspect, and maintain that suspects will be identified once the investigation, conducted by teams from the local police and the National Investigation Agency, is concluded.

The German Bakery, a popular cafe frequented by locals and foreigners is located near the local Chabad House, the Pune counterpart of the Jewish cultural-religious centre struck on 26/11 and the Osho Ashram, the headquarters of the spiritual movement by the spiritual guru Rajneesh. Prior investigations by the FBI have revealed that both Chabad House and Osho Ashram had been reconnoitered by David Coleman Headley of the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba (currently under investigation for his role in the 26/11 incident) as part of his mission to collect information for potential targets for the LeT. The same was confirmed by Home Secretary G K Pillai. Rabbi Betzalel Kupchik of Chabad House, in turn, confirmed that the local police had warned of possible attacks and stationed round-the-clock security.

P Chidambaram, the Union Minister of Home Affairs, has denied there had been any intelligence failures, describing the Pune attack as an insidious one on a soft target. His claim that it is difficult for the government to provide security to all soft targets is valid, as is the assertion that such establishments are also responsible for maintaining suitable vigilance.

Foreign Secretary-level talks between India and Pakistan are set to resume in less than two weeks. The date for the talks was confirmed only a day prior to the attack. These talks are intended to herald a resumption of the dialogue process which came to a halt on 26/11. While the agenda for the talks has not been set, terrorism would, no doubt, be one of the topics. The timing also coincides with a renewed Coalition offensive into Afghanistan.

The opposition in the Parliament has already pinned the blame on Pakistan and demanded that the talks be shelved, maintaining that "terrorism and talks can't co-exist." SM Krishna, the Union Minister of External Affairs has announced that they will await the report of the investigation and take further action, subsequent to its perusal.

The temptation to compare the attacks to 26/11 is strong. Not only was the cafe attacked frequented by foreigners (just like Cafe Leopold), it is also located near sites (both Chabad House and Osho Ashram, as also the O Hotel – a prominent luxury hotel) which match the target profile of the 26/11 culprits. At the same time, the attacks couldn't be more different, in terms of scale, number and ferocity, among other differences. The temptation to lay blame is equally strong, and there is no shortage of potentially guilty parties. In a public meeting on 05 February (observed in Pakistan as Kashmir Solidarity Day), Abdur Rehman Makki of the Jamat-ud-Dawa (an organisation affiliated to the LeT) flagged Pune, along with Delhi and Kanpur as 'fair targets' for terrorists.

Yet, the principle to abide by would be 'wait and watch'. While talks may not be resuming under ideal conditions, their resumption is important. And it is no secret that terrorist elements would like nothing better than to ensure that thanks to such incidents, contentious issues between India and Pakistan would never be resolved. It is a fallacy to assume that the resumption of talks implies an easing of pressure on matters of national security. On the contrary, the possibility of conflict resolution lies only through the mechanism of dialogue. Policy-makers on both sides of the LoC would do well to keep that in mind.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies).