India�s SLBM Test: Inching towards a Nuclear Triad

For states with a no first use (NFU) nuclear policy, possession of a nuclear triad is important. It offers capability to launch a nuclear counteroffensive from aerial platform (strategic bombers), land (missiles) or from sea (submarine-launched ballistic missile, SLBM). This three-pronged approach considerably reduces the prospect of an enemy destroying all nuclear assets of a state in the first strike itself. It thereby enhances the state’s deterrence capability. India is slowly inching towards this capability.

India successfully test-fired the SLBM codenamed K-15 on 26 Feb 2008 from an undersea location off its eastern coast.  India’s defence research establishment, DRDO with the help of the Indian Navy, conducted this launch. The nuclear capable missile was launched from a pontoon (a long tube) located 50 metres underwater. This is a two-stage missile with a range of 700 km (435 miles) and can carry a one-tonne nuclear warhead. This missile was previously codenamed as Sagarika.  In near future the missile would be integrated onto India’s indigenous nuclear submarine, the Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV).

There are conflicting reports about the complete success of this test. However, it appears that nothing much went wrong, though the scientists may have found some anomalies in respect of behavior of few parameters. Anyway, after four tests it looks possible that the system would have reached a stage where the process of integration with ATV could start. This missile is a modified version of the ship-launched Prithvi-III ballistic missile. Successful induction of this entire system would not only complete India’s nuclear triad but would also offer the Indian establishment a choice of different types of platforms depending upon the nature of target.

Probably, this increased availability of the options with the Indian establishment has unnerved Pakistan. Their Navy chief, Admiral Muhammad Afzal Tahir has described this development as a "very serious issue" as it was aimed at deploying nuclear weapons at sea. He further added, “this is going to start a new arms race in the region and would have an impact on the entire region". This reaction reflects the Pakistani realization that India is only the fifth country after the US, Russia, France and China to possess such capability. Naturally, it takes the sting out of Pakistan’s nuclear strategy.

However, from the Indian point of view, the job is far from over. The development of this SLBM has been on the cards from 1992 and it is only now that India is getting reasonable success. Also, the Indian Navy does not yet have a submarine capable of firing an SLBM. India’s ATV project is under development for more than three decades and has faced many setbacks. It is expected that this nuclear-powered submarine would be due for sea trials in 2009. It is important that this materializes because Russia is not showing any encouraging signs to the Indian Navy's request for loaning an Akula-class submarine, which is capable of launching SLBMs.

Today, Indian Navy is capable of launching a conventional/nuclear warhead up to the range of 250 to 300km from its warships. This Dhanush missile is a naval version of Prithvi short-range ballistic missile. It was first test fired on 11 April 2000 but the test was not successful. However, further testing has given good results and the test on 30 March 2007 has proved the missile is battle worthy.  DRDO proposes to extend the range of this missile, which is part of India's Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme to 500km. Now, with the likely induction of K-15 missile in one/two year’s time Indian navy would become fully operational to handle ‘nuclear tasks’.

DRDO also has plans to develop an undersea version of the supersonic BrahMos cruise missile. Today, BrahMos missiles are being produced under the joint collaboration of India and Russia and they have achieved considerable success with all platforms -- land based, ship based and air based launchers. So, the possibility of having both ballistic as well as cruise missile options for submarine will enhance the potency of India’s nuclear triad.

However, the final word about the success of India’s SLBM could only be given when the missile marries with the submarine and hits a pre-designated target. But, going by the robust nature of DRDO’s missile programme in recent past (success of Agni III and with anti-ballistic missile programme) it looks apparent that within next 18 to 24 months India will have an operational nuclear triad in place.