India and the promises to keep

Living in a troubled world, yet the dawn of each new year springs expectations and optimism transcending the tumultuousness and all that was grim in the year gone by. It is but a human proclivity to live on hope ! 

“India must assume the burden of taking the centre-stage in global decision-making processes and fora with clarity of vision”  and as “a powerful and rapidly expanding economy representing 17 percent of humanity, it is the destiny and obligation of India to be among those, who, in a real sense, set the global agenda and have a profound role in shaping the destiny of mankind” Thus spake eloquently on 21 Dec the visionary Prime Minister of Bhutan, Mr Jigme Thinley, addressing Indian parliamentarians in the gilded Central Hall of Parliament at the Hiren Mukherjee Memorial Lecture. These laudatory utterances of a neighbouring country’s statesman succinctly sums up the aspirations of many smaller nations looking forward to India assuming a leading role commensurate to its growing stature in the global community. Does India have the necessary economic clout with the military muscle to back it, internal cohesion and stability and above all ,the political will to strategise its goals with clarity and synergise them with its multiple resources for its all round development, and, also to sustain the larger good for South Asia, Asia and the world at large. Or will it stumble along the beaten track----- reactive, as traditionally, and let events shape its future and not shape events proactively. 

Like all years previously, 2012 will also bring forth newer challenges while aggravating existing problems afflicting India. The India Story has been on the ascendant since the last few years with India being the 9th largest by GDP and the 4th largest by purchasing power parity (PPP),and, an attractive destination for global investments and business. In fact, India was the second most preferred country for Foreign Direct Investment in 2010. However, in a globally connected economy, the global economic meltdown has taken its toll on India too with discernible flight of capital taking place in 2011 while bringing GDP growth down to currently under 7 percent. Financial problems afflicting the eurozone and the US have thrown the world’s financial stability in a downward spiral and India cannot remain immune to such trends. Thus certain hard economic decisions will have to be speedily taken by the government including the much debated FDI in the direct multi retail policy which got unwisely scuttled on political grounds. Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh while cautioning India Inc, the other day, to refrain from undue negativism, has been personally optimistic and recently opined that Asian economies were doing well and stated that “in fact contributing to the recovery of world economy.”  Nevertheless, bold and equally innovative economic measures will have to be taken by the government to re-energise India’s flagging economy. 

We live in a highly volatile region with the neighbouring Af-Pak expanse and its bitter rivalries. Unfortunately, whatever happens in strife-torn Afghanistan and a nuclear armed politically unstable Pakistan, affects us. India has done well to forge closer strategic links with President Karzai’s Kabul government recently and must sustain its developmental and trade activities in that hapless country notwithstanding Pakistan’s machinations. We must step up training the Afghan Army and Police forces to make them self-reliant in their own security responsibilities with the eventual thinning out of the US/NATO forces already in progress. India needs to also discreetly step up its contacts with the old Northern Alliance elements whilst also seeking newer relationships with various Pashtun leaders in Afghanistan.       

Consequent to the elimination of Al Qaeda chieftain, Osama bin Laden entrenched inside a Pak military garrison town in an independent operation by US Seals, the recent US drone strikes against Pakistani outposts killing 24 Pak soldiers and finally fueled by the memogate controversy which now threatens Pakistan with a possible military takeover, Pakistan stands at the crossroads of its destiny with its very survival at stake. India must assist the gradually depleting civil society in Pakistan in their natural yearning for democracy and for their nation to be weaned away from fundamentalism. However the US, now badly bitten by those it has fed lavishly and equipped militarily beyond operational requirements, has to take a final call on its relations with Pakistan, a nation where they are hated the most. Apart from Pakistan giving them, once again, overland transit rights for US logistical convoys to Afghanistan, the safety and security of Pak nukes is a critical global concern------- something India must factor it also in her security calculus. It must be lauded by all that, for the first time in Pakistan’s troubled history, Pak PM Yousuf Gilani has courageously spoken of conspiracies being hatched in Pakistan to oust his duly elected civilian government, hinting at the Pakistani Army likely mischief in the days to come. Pakistan’s commitment to democracy is once again at siege and thus its people must restrain its Army and even Pak’s hyperactive judiciary which is clearly over-reaching its legal mandates !

After years of procrastination, India has done wisely in endeavouring to improve its relations with neighbouring Bangladesh and, equally, opening up to Mynamar---- a country which is, in reality, our bridge to East Asia. The former, is indeed our strategic neighbour and with a friendly dispensation currently in Bangladesh, India must show adequate magnanimity in issues like river-waters sharing, trade tariffs and other problems and cement its relations with Bangladesh. India, since the last couple of years, has wisely energized its Look East policy and participated enthusiastically in the deliberations of the ASEAN, ARF, BIMSTEC  etc .India synergizing its economic and security relations with Viet Nam, Singapore, South Korea, Japan and even Australia was long overdue and will keep India’s natural strategic competitor, China’s unabated ambitions and growing assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region in check. As the government endeavours to improve relations with China and solve the old vexed boundary dispute, it must never let down its guard militarily for the Chinese are unabashed practitioners of militarily muscle flexing in its policies with all nations.  Whether their own formidable problems in the South China Sea, importantly in Tibet and the restive Xingjiang province chastens them or not, India must continue improving its military preparedness including in its infrastructure along the Indo-Chinese borders for the Chinese, historically, seldom rein in their territorial or political ambitions. A study by the government funded think tank, the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses has warned that China may carry out a limited offensive against India in 2012 on the pattern of the Kargil War ! The Services HQs and the Ministry of Defence would surely have taken cognizance of such recommendations.

Fortunately for the nation, the situation has vastly improved in both J&K and the North East region and especially the state governments, adequately supported by the Centre, must speedily move forward in various areas of governance to bring peace and genuine development to their regions. However, the overall scenario as regards  the Naxal/Maoist threats are concerned is a cause of much worry for the nation as this major internal security menace has affected nearly one-third of the country and thus a clear-cut  multi-dimensional and synergistic strategy to combat this threat is called for by the states and the central government.   

Overall, the first rays of the 2012 dawn promise much for the nation and, hopefully, as the year goes by, the India story will be concretized  for posterity.

Lt Gen Kamal Davar (Retd) was the first Chief of the Defence Intelligence Agency

Views expressed are personal