Action Please: Not Words

Even as we should continue efforts to bridge the trust deficit with Pakistan and attempt new and effective Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) which benefits the people and economy on both sides, we would do well to appreciate the emerging strategic environment in our neighbourhood and judge the actual intentions of the Pakistan Army, which calls the shots in that country, before proceeding any further on sensitive issues like Siachen and Kashmir. It needs to be seen whether there is a genuine ‘change of heart’ among the Pakistani military establishment to find peace with India or are the generals simply biding their time and waiting for their ‘moment’ to arrive and once again up the ante against its arch-rival. This ‘moment’ may present itself in the coming years depending on which way the wind will blow in Afghanistan, once the International forces led by the US begin their withdrawal. Will the Taliban re-gaining lost ground and having a major stake in power sharing encourage Pakistan to once again turn the pumped up jihadis on India ?

 

On June 11, while the Defence Secretaries of India and Pakistan were meeting in Islamabad to proceed further on Siachen, Pakistani troops had opened unprovoked firing in Krishna Ghati (KG) sector of Poonch, 150 kms east of Islamabad, killing one BSF personnel. And, a day after both sides ended their deliberations and resolved to “continue the dialogue on Siachen in keeping with the desire of the leaders of both countries for early resolution of all outstanding issues” and acknowledged that the ceasefire was holding since 2003, Pakistani troops once again opened fire in the same sector injuring an Army soldier. They continued to fire on soldiers attempting to retrieve their injured comrade, further injuring three more men. The soldier had succumbed to his injuries by the time he could be extricated. Intermittent firing continued in the KG sector till the morning of June 17, even as Indian troops exercised maximum restraint by returning fire in a controlled and deliberate manner in the face of heavy provocation from the Pakistani side which targeted 12 Indian posts simultaneously on the night of June 16 with heavy machine gun, mortar and rocket propelled grenade fire, injuring two soldiers. The Pakistan Army also refused to attend a flag meeting called by the Indian side to lodge a protest against the cease-fire violation and de-escalate tensions. The cross-border trade and bus service from the Chakan-da-Bagh crossing point have also remained suspended since the tensions began on June 11. Intermittent exchange of fire between the two sides continued till June 19 and an uneasy calm prevails in the sector. 

 

With the levels of violence in Jammu and Kashmir at an all-time low and the tourist footfalls expected to surpass pre-1989 levels for the first time in over two decades, there is no room for complacency. By making frustrated attempts at infiltration, elements in the Pakistani establishment may once again be looking for an opportunity to fan the flames of insurgency in the valley. In the past one month, several attempts have been made to re-invigorate the dwindling insurgency in the state by encouraging local militants to carry out sensational attacks in Srinagar city. The timely detection of an explosive-laden car by the J&K Police at Chanpora bridge on May 17 averted a major tragedy. Security agencies are also investigating the role of some policemen in aiding the Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in carrying out some recent attacks in Srinagar and helping them in sneaking weapons into the city. 

 

At the macro level, India should watch the developments in Afghanistan closely before conceding concessions on Kashmir and other intractable disputes. The period of Taliban rule in Afghanistan (1996-01) had seen a heavy influx of Pashto speaking fighters in Kashmir. Buoyed by their success in driving out the Americans, rabid anti-India outfits like the LeT, Hizb-e-Islami and the Haqqani network which have established firm roots in Afghanistan since 2001, may once again divert their cadres to the Kashmir theatre to fulfill their purported agenda of establishing an ‘Islamic caliphate’ over the land of the ‘infidels’. Also, Pakistan continues to retain its ‘strategic assets’ with more than 42 active terrorist training camps in POK alone. Though, with a successful multi-layered counter infiltration grid in place, these jihadis will only find limited success in their endeavours. Nevertheless, their mentors may feel tempted to undertake some mis-adventures like sneak raids on isolated posts along the LOC or provide more frequent and intense covering fire to infiltrate terrorists. The terror elements may also attempt to carry out sensational strikes in the country to vitiate the atmosphere of peace and take the two countries to the brink of conflict. 

 

The latest ceasefire violation in Poonch, at a time when the two sides were attempting to build trust and confidence, has once again demonstrated the real intentions of the Pakistan Army. This, even while the statement made by its chief on the need to de-militarise Siachen was being seen by many as a significant indicator of a change in the Pakistani mindset.  Even if the Poonch firing is dismissed as an isolated incident, it does reflect on the need for adopting a more cautious and prudent approach while dealing with a slippery Pakistani establishment. Therefore, India would do well to judge Pakistani intentions by its actions rather than getting complacent and waylaid by its cleverly crafted public relations exercises. Also, as the terror infrastructure remains intact in Pakistan and POK, and Pakistan’s “all-weather” ally, China attempts to play a greater and more active role in bolstering Pakistan’s conventional capabilities and gain a foothold in Afghanistan and POK, India, too needs to keep its strategic options open. So, while we must continue to trade in onions and other commodities with Pakistan, liberalise visa regimes for senior citizens and increase people to people contact, we should not loose sight of the larger strategic games being played out in our immediate peripheries and factor them before attempting major breakthroughs at the present juncture. 

 

 

Views expressed are personal