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The recent confrontation between the judiciary and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) in Pakistan does not augur well for Karachi, the largest city and the commercial hub of Pakistan. MQM, which primarily draws support from Mohajirs- the Urdu-speaking migrants from India, has for long dominated Karachi and other urban conglomerates in Sindh. It has the capacity and muscle power to bring Karachi to a halt. However, the population dynamics in Karachi has been changing significantly and the percentage of Urdu speakers in Karachi from 54.34 per cent in 1981 has been coming down consistently, both on account of large-scale migration into Karachi, as well as lower population growth rate of better educated Mohajirs. Consequently, the population of Mohajirs in Karachi has come down well below the crucial 50 per cent mark.
MQM tried to make up for its shortage of numbers by manipulations. By aligning continuously with the ruling dispensation in Islamabad most of the time since 1988, it used state machinery to eliminate the strongholds of all its opponents within the city. More significantly it indulged in gerrymandering to carve out parliamentary and legislative constituencies, where ethnic divisions ensured voting along ethnic lines and the favourable numbers ensured MQM victory. Consequently, 17 out of 20 MPs from Karachi, and 30 out of 38 Members of Provincial Assembly (MPAs) from Karachi belong to the party. The party also controlled the local government in Karachi since 2002 and the Nazim of Karachi belonged to MQM, till the post was abolished in 2010.
However, this political domination of MQM was seriously threatened, when the Supreme Court of Pakistan directed the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) on 26 Nov 2012 to carry out a fresh delimitation of constituencies in Karachi in order to prevent political polarisation along ethnic lines. The fact that in entire Pakistan the delimitation had been ordered only in Karachi appeared conspiratorial and incensed MQM leadership. MQM chief, Altaf Hussain, in his speech from London on 02 Dec 12, termed the judicial order for delimitation before a census as an attempt to snatch the MQM’s mandate and asserted that the people of Karachi would not allow it to succeed. He further questioned as to why similar order was not passed in respect of Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the law and order situation was equally bad. On 05 Dec 12, the Supreme Court further provoked the MQM by directing the ECP to carry out door-to-door verification of voters with assistance from the Army and the Frontier Corps though the MQM had already stated that it would oppose any such move if it was confined only to Karachi.
On 14 Dec 12, the Supreme Court, while hearing a case regarding Karachi’s law and order situation, issued a contempt of court notice to Altaf Hussain and issued summons for him to appear before the court on 07 Jan 13 along with the party’s deputy convener Dr Farooq Sattar. The court’s decision was prompted by the excerpts received from a speech made by Hussain, which were believed to contain derogatory remarks against some judges. The impact of the order was immediate, the city downed shutters, without even MQM giving a strike call, clearly indicating the party’s sway on the masses. The party leaders in a rally asserted that Altaf would never go to the court. As the party’s three decade old domination over the city is threatened, the sense of growing insecurity amongst its cadres could spill over in the streets of Karachi.
Aggravation of violence in troubled Karachi, the economic hub of Pakistan, which contributes almost a quarter of Pakistan’s GDP, could be catastrophic for Pakistan. Karachi contributes almost half of direct taxes, one third of federal excise, quarter of domestic sales tax, four fifth of sales tax on Imports and three quarters of custom duty collected across Pakistan. It participates in 30 per cent of all large scale manufacturing activities in Pakistan. Karachi-Bin Qasim port complex continues to handle almost the entire maritime imports and exports of Pakistan. It houses the largest stock exchange in Pakistan and has the headquarters of most multinational corporations operating in Pakistan. Its future would determine the destiny of Pakistan. The peace in the city is therefore essential for the prosperity of Pakistan.
A dispassionate analysis of the Court’s order would indicate that in isolating Karachi, the court has definitely acted in an arbitrary manner. The last delimitation of constituencies was carried out in 2002 based on 1998 census report; it therefore does not make sense to go for fresh delimitation till the time 2011 census report is made public. Although the Supreme Court of Pakistan headed by Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry for the first time in Pakistan’s history has shown some spine and taken many decisions against the establishment including the omnipotent Pakistan Army, it has been selective in its approach. Some of its decisions like the one involving Rinkle Kumari have been highly controversial. Although it has taken suo moto notice of mundane issues like the influence of Indian TV channels and possession of liquor by an actress, it has not shown such activism or enthusiasm in taking action against religious extremists, even after the assassination of Salman Taseer. It has clearly exhibited a conservative streak and a sympathetic attitude towards Taliban and its cohorts.
Consequently, the liberal and secular support base of MQM, comprising predominantly Mohajirs, views the recent judicial pronouncements as biased and sees them as an attempt by the establishment to deprive them of their last political bastion. Mohajirs dominated the public life in first decade of Pakistan’s existence and considered themselves as the ideologues of Pakistan, but since then have gradually lost influence and in seventies were painfully reminded of the harsh realities of electoral arithmetic. They have remained relevant and have retained some influence courtesy MQM. Their percentage in the population has been reducing and the MQM is often seen as their sole insurance in a country which still terms them as ‘refugees’. Any attack on MQM will therefore give fillip to the insecurities of the community, which is still the largest ethnic group in Karachi.
The author is a Senior Fellow at CLAWS.
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