Nyapyidaw: Brokering Peace, Nationalism and Development

The election of President Thein Sein in March 2011, under the auspices of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the success the National League for Democracy’s (NLD) leader, Aung San Suu Kyi in the April 2012 parliamentary elections paved the way for an unprecedented political and economic reformation of Myanmar.  As a stark departure from six decades of repressive military rule, this was a historic landmark of great expectations. Previously, the Military Junta (Tatmadaw) had an uncompromising attitude towards rebel groups and internal dissent. Today, it is actively engaging in peace negotiations.  The sincerity of the reforms process can be indicated by the leadership’s openness to international observation and involvement, the diversification of foreign direct investment (FDI), encouraging private enterprise domestically and permitting democratic practices such as uncensored media reporting, the right to protest and civil society participation.

Economic Development 

Most western countries have begun to revoke sanctions to facilitate international trade help expedite the economic reforms and inject confidence into the bilateral relationship. Today, western support is a necessity for Nyapyidaw as it seeks financial aid from the IMF, World Bank, EU and readies itself to be an active participant in global political forums such as the UN.
As Nyapyidaw diversifies its investment options and reduces its dependence on its prime ally (China), it acquires a degree of control over its economy and leverage in the negotiation of contracts. Presently, much of Myanmar’s oil, gas and mining industries are dominated by China given the advantage of time it has had over its western counterparts. Globally, industrial growth in metal & mineral ore mining and hydrocarbons sectors constitute some of the highest contributions to the GDP of a country. As Nyapyidaw diversifies its portfolio of investors, it may have an upshot on Chinese economy in the longer term, if not now. Regardless, China as a global economic power, obtains its resources from far and wide including Africa, Middle East, Central Asia, Southeast Asia etc.
Up till now, the majority of investments in Myanmar’s oil and gas sectors have been from Asian countries such as China, Thailand, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia etc. However, post liberalisation, “several western global majors such as ConocoPhillips, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, BG Group and Hess Corp are lining up to get contracts”. Given the economic isolation of Myanmar, it has many large sectors that provide ample opportunities to foreign investors such as in IT, telecommunication, media, real estate etc. As the private enterprise takes root, Myanmar’s stock market is likely to develop as is the purchasing power of its citizens. Thus, a snowball effect can be expected as the multiplicity of FDIs accumulates in Myanmar.  
Admittedly, as a resource rich country with fertile land and a long coastline, Myanmar has much to offer the world. In return it urgently needs assistance for meeting basic needs of its citizens in medical care, education and gainful employment in sectors other than agriculture. Herein FDIs in the untapped natural wealth of Myanmar shall play a leading role in securing livelihoods and eradicating poverty, provided it’s done responsibly and with accountability. Possibly, thereafter the focus can comfortably shift to creating a knowledge base, nurturing of human capital through education and vocational training and readying it for a service based economy. This modernisation of Myanmar is inevitably required for it to be a competitive participant in the international political economy (IPE). To that end Nyapyidaw continues to seek the help of the regional neighborhood in infrastructural development, especially the building of schools and hospitals. Internally, as the government creates alternatives, it also needs to counter the networks of black economy including illegal trade in drugs, weapons and other goods. 

Peace Milestones

The peace process, especially the ceasefire agreements are crucial for economic development to move forward across Myanmar. Creating a cohesive social fabric and genuine economic inclusion at the grassroots level warrants a level of trust between Nyapyidaw and the estranged rebel groups. Trust is especially important because the ethno-religious minorities of Myanmar do not have the numbers on their side, regardless of the political system being democratic or not. An amicable reconciliation with the Buddhist-Tatmadaw majority is a necessity for peace and progress.
The peace process has a top-down apparatus i.e. the orchestration comes from Nyapyidaw’s political class, with many military incumbents presiding over the peace negotiations. In other words, the Tatmadaw subjected the country to decades of social and economic suffering yet it solely has the license to put an end to the same. Consequently, “the first truce agreements were signed with the Shan State Army (SSA) on 2 December 2011 and Karen National Union on 12 February 2012”. 
It is only once peace has been formalised that other obstacles to governance can be addressed.  The seven step programme for Myanmar’s transition to a democratic state introduced by Prime Minister General Khin Myuntroad in August 2003 was non-specific. A disproportionate amount of responsibility was put on a new Constitution, which would “follow the principles of the National Convention and be adopted through a national referendum”.  Notably, the new Constitution of 2008, disallowed citizens married to foreign nationals from running for President and also denied citizenship to the Rohingyas Muslim minority, thus clarifying who could be credited as the benefactor and who allowed as beneficiary.
President Thein Sein’s peace process can be praised for facilitating political dialogues with armed ethnic rebel groups, which had been embroiled in conflict with the Tatmadaw for decades. For the first time, international humanitarian aid has been allowed to reach conflict areas whilst ceasefire agreements have been abided.

Nationalism 

The development of a new nationalism in Myanmar needs to be more than a constitutional provision or an acknowledgement by Nyapyidaw. It can develop genuinely only once words are put to action and continued interactions take place between the political-military leadership, peace negotiators and armed rebel groups. It is indeed built on trust, respect and inclusion. Post peace negotiations, many ethnic minorities have been provided passports and IDs, thus making incremental progress towards redefining the Myanmar identity and nationalism. However, given the past protracted conflict, there remain ongoing challenges of regionalism, differences over territory, resource sharing as well as a war economy that subsisted on informal trade, smuggled goods, arms sales etc. Hence peace accords are merely the preamble to gradually overcoming a plethora of challenges. Nyapyidaw’s plate is full and its citizens hungry. Given the backing of the Tatmadaw to the peace process and the cooperation of rebel groups, it appears that credible change in Myanmar’s social and economic space is indeed possible.

The author is an Associate Fellow with the Centre for Land Warfare Studies

Views expressed are personal