China and India: Upshot of Energy Sourcing on Bilateral Relations

As two large economic powers of Asia, India and China seek to continue, if not increase their developmental momentum. On the ecological front, international scientific consensus highlights the perils of climate change resulting from excessive deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions.  All nation states and individuals are expected to play a part in reducing their carbon footprint. The devastating hurricane Sandy in USA (2012), the harsh winters in UK & Russia (2012) and cyclone Mahasen in Bangladesh (2013) are recent meteorological indicators, of what may increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades. Given the mutual benefits inherent in keeping climate change at bay, it is only natural that Beijing and New Delhi would undertake multi-layered bilateral exchanges on clean energy alternatives.

Nevertheless, under the construct of international political economy (IPE), matters are somewhat nuanced. Herein, the urgency pertains not only to ways and means of tackling climate change but also the worldwide jockeying for energy resources. As global warming and resource competition escalate, Beijing and New Delhi are likely to find themselves yoked together in both competition and collaboration. The latter is indicated through bilateral R&D partnerships and greater use of the BRICS forum for a joint global stance. The competition may manifest in the overlapping hunting grounds of West Asia and possibly the much contested South China Sea (SCS).

Presently, the South Asia sub-continent is in a state of political and economic flux. Having made significant inroads into India’s peripheral neighbourhood, China’s economic strides are also raising strategic concerns. Gilgit-Baltistan, under Pakistan’s occupation, is notable for its riches in uranium among a multiplicity of minerals and metals. Today, Chinese companies monopolise the region’s mining industry, possibly to the disadvantage of the local populace. Senge Hasnan Sering alleges that, “President Asif Zardari issued the Empowerment and Self Governance Ordinance of Gilgit-Baltistan to provide a cover to Chinese imperialistic goals[i].”

For India, the transition heralds an economic and political encirclement on its northern borders, to the mutual benefit of both China and Pakistan. Arguably, China’s 19 km foray into neighbouring Ladakh’s Indian Territory indicates a boldness resultant of it securing the better part of the natural resource market in Gilgit-Baltistan and Afghanistan.

The years 2012-13 have indicated that,when major political transformations occur or are anticipated, economic opportunists flock to the frontlines. Afghanistan and Myanmar are the western and eastern flanks respectively of emerging resource opportunities in South Asia. A lion’s share of both is being developed by China. To its credit, it has put forth the requisite scale of manpower, aid and infrastructure to secure its long term investments. In Afghanistan, the Chinese like other foreign persons encountered security threats. With the Karzai government bolstering its security set-up against the Taliban[ii], it is business as usual. As per a Daily Finance report, “U.S. government geologists and western companies are locating the vast mineral deposits that the Chinese and Russians are exploiting”.[iii]Both Myanmar and Afghanistan are very amenable to investment from India. The fact remains that China’s speed and efficiency, transformed it into the world’s second largest economy. Thus, it is safe to assume that China shall continue to dominate economic opportunities in West and South Asia in the coming decades.

Whilst India tags behind its more proficient neighbour in availing economic opportunities and connectivity, it must maintain a steadfast focus on the strategic shifts that are in the works in South Asia. For example, China is not a member of ASEAN, yet has expressed an interest in joining SAARC – a proposition that has the support of most South Asian countries, barring India[iv]. On the other hand, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) which includes in its fold four Central Asian Republics (CAR)[v], Russia and China, is one that India has expressed an interest in being a member of. To that end it is plausible that China would be the only SCO member in need of convincing. Thus, it is in these regional conglomerates that a divergence in China and India’s economic and political ambitions becomes apparent.

Russia, China and India as Asia’s largest emerging economic powers have established a deeper bond of trilateral cooperation at the global forum of BRICS, rather than the regional forum of SCO or SAARC. For the most part, China’s economic growth has made it indispensible to the global economy. It has improved its bilateral engagements with countries all around the globe, including India. Indeed, its demonstrated skill in infrastructural development and swift mobilisation may even have made it a preferred investor against others in the game. Although its competence is reputable, the idea that China’s rise is peaceful garners cynicism.

The Asia-Pacific, USA and India have irrefutable economic interdependencies with China. However, on the political front they rely upon each other to ensure a multilateral balance against the rising Asian power. Maintaining this balance is crucial to stability and sustainability in the realm of energy sourcing. Competition for energy resources and strategic leverage must not obstruct opportunities for peaceful rapport between China and India. This bond can be developed in areas of mutual benefit such as alternative energy research, glacier watch, tiger conservation, afforestation, pollution control etc.

As a contingency, India must continue to develop its political ties with a diversity of allies. It must apply a strategic lens towards economic development, specifically energy sourcing since it is closely linked with transit access. Collaboration is already existent between China and India through R & D partnerships. While competing with China on the economic front is a challenging task, India should not be a bystander to change in its environs. There is a need today for India to heed the changes and participate in balancing its northern front, which has been vulnerable and permeable since time immemorial.