North Korea: From the State Sponsor of Terrorism to What?

 

 

Amidst the ongoing debates among international security strategists about the heightened tension in East Asia over negotiations with North Korea to dismantle its nuclear establishments, an agreement between the US and North Korea has given a breather to all concerned parties. North Korea had earlier threatened to walk out of the six-party agreement to dismantle North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear establishment and to refuse to open all other nuclear facilities for international verification under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

 

In order to resolve several pending issues, it was agreed during the six-party talks in February 2007 that North Korea would give up its nuclear plans and open its nuclear reactors for IAEA inspections under the disarmament-for-aid deal which included food and energy aid. However, following the US refusal to remove it from the list of states sponsoring terrorism, North Korea ordered IAEA inspectors to leave the country.

 

Christopher Hill, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, had to convince the North Korean administration not to reinstate the nuclear establishments. The US envoy also seemed satisfied with the North Korean acceptance of the US terms of the agreement which are still to be formalized by the six parties. The new US policy of engagement rather than containment has been criticized by several international strategists. Japan has openly criticized the US decision to remove North Korea from the list of state sponsoring terrorism as it lost a trump card to play on the controversial issue of Japanese abductees lingering between both countries. Japan will continue to exert pressure on North Korea to resolve the pending issues. However, both China and South Korea have seen this development as a positive step.

 

The removal of North Korea from the list also removes the tag of 'axis of evil' given to it by George W Bush immediately after the 11 September 2001 incident. Still, several strategists think that nothing can be said clearly about North Korea, which is known the world over for its policy of brinkmanship. The country has troubled the world community with several threats time and again. Being situated in one of the most militarily-volatile regions and having either the presence of or sharing borders with world powers including the US, China, Russia and Japan, North Korea has ever since its inception following the Korean War been governed by a dictatorial communist regime and remained a serious threat to the peace and prosperity of the region. The country also has strict compulsory military service in place. For this reason North Korea has the highest number of active troops per thousand people in the world. Ironically, it is also highly impoverished.

 

The North Korean policy of brinkmanship has in the past, earned the country several concessions and material aid from the negotiating parties. Its record of blackmailing has been seen in its testing of long-range ballistic missiles and the alleged nuclear tests in 2006. North Korea is also suspected of buying and selling nuclear technology to other states including in the Middle East.

 

North Korea has, this time, promised to open all its nuclear facilities for international verification. It has already submitted some details to China about its disarmament plans which have still not been made public. While North Korea is continuously backed and defended by China, the latter's role in the six-party talks remained laudable as it brought North Korea to the negotiating table, by hosting the talks since 2003.

 

Meanwhile, news of the ailing Kim Jong-il, leader of the North, has created a furore in the strategic circles because no one is sure who is going to succeed him and what is going to be the fate of the nation and the region after that. It is also being reported that North Korea may have tested engines for long-range missiles earlier this year in consistence with its decade-old programme. North Korea is believed to have hundreds of short-range weapons capable of reaching Japan and South Korea. The South Korean intelligence agency has reported that North Korea has been and will be carrying out more missile tests in the future.

 

While it is still not clear whether North Korean missiles have the capability to carry nuclear weapons, an American source says that such probability cannot be overruled because it took six years for the US to achieve that from nearly nothing and the Russians did it in an even shorter period. North Korea will achieve that capability sooner or later.

 

For the time being, the East Asian region appears to be silent. However, the coming change of guard in the US and the deteriorating health of Kim Jong-il may have some dramatic repercussions in the times ahead.

 

Originally Published on 16-10-08

URL: http://www.ipcs.org/newKashmirLevel2.jsp?action=showView&kValue=2725&subCatID=null&mod=null

 

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies)