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North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Il returned to centre stage of political activity amidst high drama in Pyongyang on April 9, 2009 as the cloistered country’s 687-seat Supreme People’s Assembly re-elected him as Chairman of North Korea’s most powerful ruling agency, the National Defense Commission for another five-year term. The re-election comes at a very crucial stage for North Korea since there are numerous reports that his failing health and shrinking public appearances indicates that he no longer calls the shots within North Korea.
Kim Jong Il inherited the reigns of North Korea following his father Kim Il Sung’s death in 1994 and has since thrived on an intense personality cult. However, the recent past has witnessed much debate as to which of the present ruler’s three sons is likely to succeed him and assume the mantle of leadership, given that neither of the three were elected to Parliament in March 2009, though according to hearsay, Kim’s 26-year old youngest son, Jong Un is likely to be his successor.
Nevertheless, with his re-election, Kim Jong Il has reaffirmed his control over North Korean politics and asserted his authority yet again. This well flaunted move holds special significance since it immediately followed North Korea’s launch of a “communications satellite” on the Unha-2 carrier rocket into orbit on April 5, 2009. Subsequently, the US Northern Command stated that the first stage of the rocket fell into the Sea of Japan, while the payload fell into the Pacific Ocean and no object entered orbit. Nonetheless, the launch of the North Korean satellite into space was well timed as it appeared to have a two-fold agenda — reminding th world of Kim Jong Il’s continuing grip on power and to attract Obama Administration’s attention and urge the US to come to the negotiating table.
Pyongyang did manage to extract a swift retort as President Barack Obama issued a statement from Prague hours before he was scheduled to outline a strategy that “commits the US to take the lead in reducing its nuclear-weapons stockpile in a bid to gain Russian and Chinese support for curbing the mounting proliferation threats posed by North Korea and Iran.” President Obama stated, “…The launch of a Taepo-dong 2 missile was a clear violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1718. We will immediately consult with our allies in the region, including Japan and the Republic of Korea and members of the UN Security Council to bring this matter before the Council as the US will continue working for the verifiable denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula through the Six-Party Talks.” Earlier, the UNSC imposed sanctions against North Korea by means of Resolution 1718 in 2006, after the North conducted a nuclear test.
Since 1994 Kim Jong Il has managed to translate nuclear brinkmanship into diplomatic breakthrough in terms of foreign policy starting with the signing of the 1994 Agreed Framework and has harvested substantially ever since. However, the enigma of North Korean politics continues largely unabated further characterised by lack of policy-making transparency. Despite all signs pointing to the need for urgent structural reforms in the socio-economic sphere, there has been a trend of continued reticence by the North Korean leadership under Kim Jong Il to undertake the same.
Pyongyang’s satellite launch has come under intense international criticism since it is believed to have used the same delivery system as the Taepodong-2 long-range ballistic missile and is widely being viewed as an effort by North Korea to prove that it is edging towards gaining capability to shoot a nuclear warhead on a longer-range missile. In response, the UNSC is reported to have arrived at a compromise to reprimand North Korea for launching a rocket while crucially avoiding tougher punishments owing to concerns raised by China and Russia since both “were not convinced that Pyongyang had violated any UN rules.”
The UNSC is soon likely to vote towards a step less forceful than a resolution, which is expected to further constrict existing sanctions on North Korea. This move could be attributed to existent apprehension that any stricter punitive measure might drift the North away from negotiations over completely dismantling its nuclear programme. In fact, Pyongyang has already flashed its ‘nuclear card’ stating that it would restart its weapons-grade nuclear programme if the UN takes any action to punish it for firing a rocket that it claims is a satellite.
According to American Ambassador Susan E. Rice, “What the Council can do, and we hope will do, through the adoption of this statement is to send a very clear message to North Korea that what they have done under the guise of a satellite launch is in fact a violation of their obligations and indeed that there are consequences for such actions.”
In what was widely presumed as a gesticulation of its intent towards bringing the nuclear weapons programme to a standstill and further keep the international community engaged, North Korea had blown up a 60-foot cooling tower at it’s largest nuclear facility at Yongbyon, 60 miles north of Pyongyang in June 2008. It appears cogent that any likely solution from now on would fall into the category of a grand barter and expectedly, the principal player, Kim Jong Il, would successfully repeat the pattern of hard bargaining as he has done in the past.
Expectedly, the ongoing response by the Security Council is cautiously measured and is aimed at ensuring that North Korea would continue with negotiations towards renouncing its entire nuclear capability. It would be prudent to state that Pyongyang’s march towards complete disarmament and relinquishing its nuclear stockpile entails a very heavy price tag.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies).
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