Aftershock in Tehran as Presidential Election Ends

Reverberations to the 10th Iranian presidential election results were apparent when the streets of Tehran erupted with violent protests against the victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to another four-year term in office. Riot police officers used batons and tear gas against opposition demonstrators who accused President Ahmadinejad of rigging the elections constituted what could be described as the fiercest protests that Iran has witnessed in a decade. The demonstrations have been unprecedented with at least seven people being killed in clashes with the security forces.

The landslide victory for Ahmadinejad, who received a thumping 62.6 per cent of the vote (nearly 24 million votes), indeed came in as a shock to many in Iran and internationally, given that Ahmadinejad’s popularity had nose-dived in the recent past owing to his radical hardline politics and policies, an increasingly confrontationist approach with the West coupled with a crackdown against social freedoms. A victory at the ballot box might be interpreted as a vindication of his stance on the issues cited above. Of immense significance would be Ahmadinejad’s tough posture over pursuing Iran’s nuclear programme for which, Tehran has been at loggerheads with the West for long.

In a televised address to the nation on June 13, President Ahmadinejad called on the Iranian public to respect the verdict, while denouncing foreign diplomatic and press criticism stating, “Forty million people have taken part in this process. How can they question it? All political and propaganda machines abroad and sections inside the country have been mobilised against the nation.” He further said, “Through massive turnout in the elections, the Iranian nation has proved once again that it was even more determined to follow the path of the founder of the Islamic Revolution, Imam Khomeini and the martyrs.”

The main challenger to Ahmadinejad in this election, Mir Hossein Mousavi, a reformist and former Prime Minister who had promised to reverse President Ahmadinejad’s hard-line policies and improve relations with the West, led a campaign that seemed to have galvanised the anti-Ahmadinejad vote. Nevertheless, Mousavi managed to receive 33.8 per cent of the vote.

During the course of voting, the record 85 per cent voter-turnout gave analysts an initial inkling that this turnout was in favour to bring about a change in Iran’s political leadership especially since Mousavi had assumed a strong lead during the final days of the campaign that could best be described as bitter and pungent. However, this was not meant to be. Mousavi later complained regarding irregularities and unfair means being used during the election, stating that there had been a lack of ballots in many areas and that some of his campaign offices had been attacked as well his websites shut down.

As a matter of fact, the issue of vote-rigging has been raised earlier in Iran’s electoral process as well. However, analysts have stated that generally, authorities can manipulate the results only by a few percentage points, therefore leaving room for a genuine democratic process. The European Union and Canada have expressed their concern about allegations of irregularities during the elections, while US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton said that Washington hoped the result reflected the “genuine will and desire of the Iranians”. On the contrary, Tehran’s long-standing allies such as Venezuela and Syria, and neighbours Iraq and Afghanistan have been swift in recognising President Ahmadinejad as the winner.

It would be significant to mention that while Mousavi’s support base comprised primarily of the educated, the affluent, intellectuals and members of the moderate clerical establishment in the urban areas, he did not command support in the rural pockets of the country. On the contrary, President Ahmadinejad enjoys bedrock of support in the villages constituting the poor population, war veterans (Shaheeds) as well as a sizeable section of the conservative population that continues to deeply identify with the Islamic Revolution.

The controversial verdict led both candidates claiming victory initially with an appeal by Mousavi to the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to intervene in order to resolve the crisis. Ayatollah Khamenei however, gave a clear indication of his support while issuing a statement on state television congratulating Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on his victory and pointedly urged the other candidates to support him. In addition, the Speaker of the Majlis, Ali Larijani, who also is Iran’s main negotiator on major foreign policy issues including talks on Iran's controversial nuclear programme, congratulated President Ahmadinejad on his re-election and stated, “Majlis will have a cordial cooperation with the new government.”

With a population of 70.04 million, Iran has experienced a population boom after the war with Iraq leading to a significant youth bulge. Every year, nearly 750,000 additional youth enter the Iranian job market placing increasing pressure on the government to generate new jobs. Resultantly, the government is required to create as many as one million jobs every year. The recent downturn in the Iranian economy has contributed to social unrest owing to a confluence of unemployment and rise of drug addiction. Iran presently has nearly 2 million drug addicts.

Therefore, President Ahmadinejad is faced with grave challenges ahead of him as the Iranian government is confronted with a financial burden due to providing extensive public subsidies on gasoline, food, and housing. Energy subsidies alone represent about 12 per cent of Iran’s GDP, while total subsidies are estimated to reach over 25 per cent of the GDP. Critics of the President have maintained that Ahmadinejad’s policies have majorly contributed to budget deficits and are detrimental towards combating inflation and unemployment.

Thus, celebrations in President Ahmadinejad’s camp could well be short-lived as he faces the towering twin challenge of engaging the confidence of all sections of the Iranian population by means of effective governance as well as bringing about economic stability to the country, as he takes oath to become Iran’s President for a second consecutive tenure.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies).