India's Concerns in Central Asia

It is widely acknowledged by the strategic community that 9/11 has changed the security environment in Central Asia and has underlined the need for new political and geo-strategic arrangements to create a stable world order. Situated in a close vicinity of India, concerns in the Central Asia Republics (CARs) include trans-national challenges such as terrorism; extremism; narcotic and arms trafficking; ecological security and protection of the environment. A tremor in the security environment in Central Asia can directly threaten India’s security particularly due to faster transportation, communication, technology and presence of rich mineral resources that play an important role in bringing Central Asia to international attention and India’s strategic interest.

Ethno-regional identities are stronger sub-national identities amongst the Central Asians and can create social and political instability in the region. Although Islam is the predominant religion practiced in the region, it has failed to become a unifying ethnic identity for the Central Asians. The long experience of moderate Islam during the Soviet period and the fear among Central Asians that Islamic identity may erode the prevalent territorial integrity, has made them conscious and sensitive towards their religious identity. However, the threat of al-Qaeda’s influence throughout Central Asia and the rise of extremist groups in the Fergana Valley connecting Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan present an immediate regional security threat, and cannot be ignored. It can convert the economically, politically and socially fragile and autocratic nations, particularly Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, into Afghan style anarchies principally when Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are actively engaged in increasing their influence in the region and peddling a Wahabi brand of pan-Islamic identity.

Pakistan's involvement in Central Asia is in continuation with General Zia-ul Haq's policy of creating a 'zone of strategic depth' in Central Asia, Afghanistan and Kashmir. These policies were aimed to bring the region under Islamabad's command and to find a gateway to Central Asia for economic, strategic and religious purposes. Islamabad has been arguing that the region stretching from Pakistan to Turkey and from Kazakhstan to Iran and the Gulf is a logically integrated strategic and security region.

Most of the leaders of CARs are supportive of Pakistan on Indo-Pakistan issues in a bilateral framework due to shared religious identity. However, they still have close feelings for India due to their 70 years of interaction during the Soviet times. In fact, the economic and cultural linkages between Central Asia and South Asia date back to the Aryan civilization. Buddhism went to China via Central Asia and Islam was introduced to India by the Mughal’s, who ruled Indian sub-continent for around two centuries, came from Fergana Valley.

In the recent past, due to differences in political priorities and resource constraints, India has not converted its historical and cultural relations into a substantive bond. On the other hand, Pakistan has been quite active on building bilateral cultural and security relations. It has also been involved in translating, publishing and distributing the Holy Koran written in Russian language. Recently, Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari attended a ‘Dushanbe Four’ Summit in Tajikistan with the leaders of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Russia, highlighting security concerns in the impoverished CARs and the possibility of transferring electricity from Tajikistan to Pakistan. During the summit, Zardari requested Russia to supply helicopters, aircraft, and other hardware for the Pakistan Army and help them modernise it and counter new regional challenges. Islamabad clearly aims at establishing economic and defence developments and get a toehold in the CARs directly and via developing relations with Russia.

The other security threat that engulfs the regional security arises from narcotic and arms trade. There are various reports that suggest a link between narcotics and terrorism, though this remains unconfirmed so far. Economic hardship, addiction, corruption and close proximity to Afghanistan make narcotic trade profitable. Illegal narcotic production in Afghanistan has risen more than 40 times since 2001. Even the US led military presence in Afghanistan is unable to check the production of opium and heroin. Much of the supply of narcotics shipped across Afghanistan's northern border, up to one-fifth of the country's output, has traveled to and through Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan to Russia and other European countries.

Narcotic trafficking is one of the reasons for rampant corruption in Central Asian countries and is slowly turning them into narcotic trafficking conduits. Many western officials and regional observers suspect that the Central Asian governments, to some extent, controls the narcotic trade. It is also admitted by a few western officials that the western taciturn is the result of a political tradeoff as no one wants to risk alienating the governments on the issue of narcotic corruption because the cooperation of the authoritarian regimes is important for preventing Islamic militants from using the Tajik-Afghan or Tajik-Uzbek border as sanctuary.

The other security concern is the easy access to the chemical, biological and nuclear material used for weapons of mass destruction (WMD). It is also reported that CARs have become a transit route for the transit of material used for WMD usually moving southwards from Russia due to the porous and unguarded borders and poorly secured facilities.

To conclude, socio-economic and political security in the Central Asian countries will remain delicate as long as there is instability in Afghanistan, unchecked narcotic trade, feeble economy and authoritarian government remains in the region. India can facilitate in overcoming the security threats in CARs by not only sharing its experience and expertise in nation-building but also in combating terrorism through different methods and techniques.

India needs to cultivate its historical and cultural linkages in order to maintain goodwill and friendship with CARs. India also needs to develop new ideas and approaches in its foreign policy. In this regard, New Delhi must perceive CARs as an integral part of its strategic neighbourhood. It should also actively take part in Central Asian regional cooperation and security arrangements like Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and should participate in military exercises. Defence and economic relations must be maintained along with educational, cultural, scientific and technological cooperation. India must also explore new avenues to enhance bilateral trade through the Commonwealth of Independent States as long as the land route through Afghanistan remains unstable.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies).