Suicide Attacks in Pakistan: Chickens Come Home To Roost

Pakistan has emerged as the favourite target for suicide attackers. It now tops the list of countries affected by suicide bombings, surpassing even notorious Afghanistan and Iraq. India’s western neighbour not only has the distinction of witnessing most deadly suicide attacks in terms of casualties, but also in terms of average deaths per month due to such attacks. Until 9/11 Pakistan never witnessed suicide attacks. It gradually took root in Pakistan after the US-led ‘Operation Enduring Freedom’ in Afghanistan. At that point, the aim of the suicide bombers was to eliminate all those who were siding with “the forces of the infidel”. The first suicide attack was made by the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen in May 2002 in which 14 people including nine French nationals were killed. Since then there has been no turning back.

However, 2007 was the bloodiest ever, when suicide attacks peaked. In 2007, there were 56 attacks killing 837 people and injuring 1227, mostly law enforcement personnel. This was a 10-fold increase in the number of attacks compared to 2006. The most high profile was the assassination of Benazir Bhutto on 27 December 2007. There were 66 attacks in 2008 killing 965 people. Suicide bombers killed on an average at least 80 people a month in this year. The average went to 90 a month in 2009. That was roughly three deaths every day. The 2007 surge was attributed to the bloody ‘Operation Silence’ in Lal Masjid in July 2007 by Pakistani commandos against pro-Taliban, pro-Al Qaeda radicals led by Gazi brothers. Apart from loss of several lives, the raid caused a serious blow to the mullah-militant-military nexus. Since then, on an average, there has been a suicide attack every 5 or 6 days.

Suicide bombings in Pakistan are directed against three types of targets: the state institutions and personnel, especially the security forces; places where Westerners stay or frequent; and religious or sectarian rivals such as the Shia community. Interestingly, moderate Sunnis belonging to Barelvi School are also targeted for opposing suicide tactics. Even UN personnel have not been spared by the suicide bombers. The bombers also unsuccessfully tried to hit high profile targets like the then President, Pervez Musharrraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. As and when the bombers failed to hit high-profile targets, they turned to softer ones like markets, religious congregations and political rallies causing heavy civilian casualties.

Post-July 2007, more than 60 per cent of attacks were against security forces, obviously to seek revenge. Geographically, most number of attacks took place in Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) followed by Punjab, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Sindh. At the same time, Balochistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) were not spared. Attackers primarily targeted security forces in these new areas. Overall, they want to demonstrate that no area in Pakistan is safe and they can strike whenever and wherever. They also want to demoralise the Pakistani security forces, and put to test the latter’s anti-insurgency operations (‘Operation Rah-e-Haq’) in NWFP and FATA.

The suicide attackers belonged not to one single but to one of the four categories of militant groups present either in Afghanistan or Pakistan:

1. Taliban (Afghanistan and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan   TTP);
2. Al Qaeda and its affiliates like Lashkar-e-Jangvi;
3. Anti-Indian groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba, Hizbul Mujahideen, and Jaish-e-Muhammed;
4. Sectarian groups like Sunni Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) and Shia Tehrik-e-Jafria.

Except non-Sunni groups, all others are linked to, if not coordinated by, Al Qaeda, which acts as a ‘mentor-in-chief’. Such a large jihadi base, in turn, helps Al Qaeda to conceal itself and draw requisite manpower at any point of time. The agenda of Al Qaeda is global, whereas the objectives of other groups are local.

As per a report, the TTP commander Baitullah Mesud, used to train suicide bombers who were sold or bartered like Toyoto off-roaders, much prized in the hilly terrain that is the preserve of these militant groups. The going rate was $7000 to $14000 per bomber depending on how quickly the human bomb was needed and how close the bomber could get to the target. The trade has not changed even after Baitullah’s demise. Production of suicide kits is like a cottage industry in Pakistan tribal areas.

Suicide attackers are mostly below 20; belong to middle or lower middle class; are less educated; unemployed; and dominated by jihadi and anti-US sentiments. The most hardened and highly motivated among these have been used to take on tough military targets; the next best aimed at police; and the next on other government personalities. A suicide bomber is usually accompanied by a motivator who makes sure that the bomber reaches the target without fail.

Chickens have now come home to roost. And the ‘creator’ is clueless how to handle these Frankenstein monsters. The attacks have exposed lax security and insufficient intelligence. The US should focus its aid in addressing these lacunae rather than supplying more F-16s in Pakistan.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies).