The Coup in Maldives: Security Implications for India

Despite having no presence in the parliament, Islamists have by and large led the current coup. They have not only succeeded in creating dissensions within the ranks of the military and police, but have also succeeded in bringing out people to the streets on emotive issues that could sound the death knell for the tourism industry in Maldives.  Problems for President Nasheed began after the successful culmination of SAARC summit in Addu Atoll.  Islamists succeeded in bringing people on the streets to demonstrate against the murals presented to Maldives by SAARC countries depicting their culture, to mark the occasion, on the ground that many of them offended their sensibilities as Muslims.  They launched a ‘Defend Islam’ campaign on 23 December 2011, which was joined in, by most secular opposition parties for purely political reasons.  The gifts from friendly foreign countries, which had been accepted by the regime and could have triggered tourism in the hitherto neglected atoll, had to be removed after two months of theft and vandalism. 

 

Islamists strengthened by their victory, claimed that serving of liquor and massage parlours in tourist resorts were against Islam and must be stopped. The tourism is the main stay of Maldivian economy, and contributes to over 60 per cent of its foreign exchange earnings. Although the government pandered to the Islamists demand and agreed to close the massage parlours, the demonstrations did not stop. The situation worsened considerably, after the armed forces arrested Abdulla Mohamed the Chief Judge of the criminal court on government orders, after the police had expressed its inability to do so.  The judge was accused of involvement in criminal and corrupt activities, but his arrest was seen as a serious infringement of judicial independence.  Unfortunately, the judiciary in Maldives does not have strong moorings in constitutional law.  Most of the judicial officials are Gayoom (previous president) appointees, merely adept in Islamic Shariah and have not even passed seventh standard, leave aside any degree in law. President Nasheed wanted to reform the judiciary and had requested the United Nations for help.  However, Justice Abdullah’s arrest brought out even the liberals against the government and the judiciary, the Human Rights Commission and even the Vice President joined the opposition in demanding his release  .

 

Three weeks of protests culminated in the revolt within the ranks of the military and police, which resulted in rebel officers forcing the President to resign on 07 Feb 12.  President Nasheed, an impeccable democrat, had instilled exemplary standards of inner party democracy in his ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP).  However, he failed to take others along in pursuit of his agenda and this led to his down fall.  His inability to take on the Islamists and adopt a liberal view on the contentious issues of religious freedom, created a parallel centre of authority within the state.

 

The spontaneous demonstrations after the removal of Nasheed from power clearly indicate that he still enjoys considerable support including within the military.  The continuing instability in this vital region is not good for either the regional or the global security.  Maldives, despite its small population is strategically located and stretches 800 km from North to South and 130 Km from East to West in central Indian Ocean. It comprises of approximately 1200 islands located in 26 natural atolls spread over an area of 90,000 square kilometres. Of these only 198 islands are inhabited.  Its archipelagic status entitles it to a disproportionately larger Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), as compared to its small area of 298 Km. Maldives is located 640 km from the southern tip of the Indian land mass, 720 km from Sri Lanka and 384 km from Diego Garcia, which bestows upon the island state a very strategically significant location.  The island of Minicoy in the Indian Union Territory of Lakshadweep is separated by Eight Degree Channel from Maldives and the northern most island of Maldives is just 128 Km from Minicoy.  This central geo-strategic location confers enormous advantages on Maldives, but creates security dilemmas, as faced by other mini island-states of Indian Ocean.

 

Maldives is crucial to India’s security. However, being a mid-ocean mini state, it can never have a force strong enough to guarantee its security against any major external aggression or serious internal disorders. It therefore needs a regional security framework that guarantees security without in any way undermining its sovereignty. In recent times there have been many instances, where Somalian pirates have operated within Maldivian waters and abandoned pirate boats have been recovered on numerous occasions. The occupation of any uninhabited island in Maldives by non-state armed groups for use as a launching pad, could pose a serious threat to India’s security.  Similarly, the radicalisation of Maldives could create another nursery for Islamic radicals in India’s vicinity. 

 

The best option for India would be a quick normalisation of situation in Maldives. However, bringing back President Nasheed, after his resignation may not be a practical proposition, similarly immediate elections may further accentuate the political divide.  It would therefore be prudent to go in for early presidential elections after allowing some time to cool down the agitated minds.

 

The new president after the elections will need to take a few hard decisions.  An overwhelming majority of Maldives’ citizens are Muslims and this would not change even if complete freedom of religion was guaranteed in the constitution, but would certainly erode the capacity of religious scholars to undermine the government. Accommodation of radical view point only emboldens the extremists to demand more and expand their influence. A country dependent on tourism for its sustenance and global community for its security, cannot afford to become a Saudi styled medieval theocracy.  Maldivian experience shows that western style liberal democracy is probably not compatible with Shariah based criminal justice system. There is also an urgent need to reform the judiciary.  May be some judges from other SAARC countries could be deputed to Maldives till the country has an adequate pool of legally trained judges.  Many countries in the South Pacific have judiciaries manned by outsiders, who are impartial and unaffected by internal political biases.  

 

These small steps could contribute to make Maldives meet the expectations of the International community and emerge as a democratic role model for the Islamic world.  

 

 

Views expressed are personal