India's Defence Relations: Imperatives of Balancing

Wooed by the world after decades of neglect, India is faced with a major dilemma in structuring defence relations given the strategic landscape in which the country is placed today.  China’s aggressive posturing in East and South East Asia and US shift to Asia Pacific with a curious admixture of global and regional balancing defines the challenge for countries in the region to choose between the two main poles in a multi-polar global order. This has come about even as India’s North West including Af-Pak and West Asia are in a flux where state and non state actors are engaged in fratricidal conflicts which are slow burning with occasional flash points as seen in Gaza recently. This state is unlikely to change in the near future.

Against this back drop recognizing India’s strategic location, versatile military and foundationally strong foreign policy establishment, the country is being wooed through defence engagement alluring it to make a commitment towards a US led alliance the ostensible purpose of which is to keep the emerging challenger China under check. Recommendations of a recent abbreviated report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington is another in the series of such documents by Dr S Amer Latif under the guidance of Karl F  Inderfurth both with considerable experience of South Asia.

India’s strategic community is divided between those who are veering towards a US led axis and which includes Japan and Australia to others who seek to chart out the path of strategic autonomy. There is also an opportunistic school so to say which seeks to exploit the vacuum in Af Pak post 2014 or even earlier and the US Asia Pacific switch to advantage by expanding defence engagement with the US. This school seems to be in tune with some of the CSIS recommendations.

The CSIS abbreviated report has come out with a number of policy recommendations many of which are already in vogue. For instance India has a vibrant bilateral maritime cooperation with its neighbours be it Sri Lanka and Maldives as well as the South East Asian countries in the various formats such as the Milan exercises. Thus apart from emphasising on a steady forward trajectory the paper fails to come up with new ideas and also does not address India’s core concerns of defence relations with the United States, i.e. building autonomous arms trade relations. The Paper is also challenged like many other non Indian scholars by the fact that it is unable to traverse the maze of India’s policy documents.

The US Defence Department on the other hand  is far more realistic and having examined the overall terrain of Indo-US defence relations has sought to prioritise technology and arms trade with Deputy Secretary of State Ashton Carter expressly charted to make it work. On the flip side China not to be left behind sent the soon to be retiring Defence Minister General Liang Guanglie to New Delhi in September and sought to allay apprehensions on border tensions while agreeing to expand the scope of joint training cum exercises by restarting these in the near future.

Japan is another suitor for a deeper defence engagement with India quite naturally due to the potent challenge posed by China’s military modernisation. The Indo-Japan 2 + 2 format is followed by a number of high level visits and joint training events.  Australia has also been trying to explore pathways for greater military cooperation which is restricted at present.

India’s traditional partnerships with Russia is on stream despite the hiccups of delay in Gorshkov and recent shift in imports of platforms to the US and Europe. Israel  is also feeling the heat on the defence procurement front as India expands its defence acquisitions based on competitive sourcing.

India is also expanding defence engagement with Brazil and South Africa under the IBSA forum and joint survey has been carried out recently of the South African industry. Brazil’s Embraer has also been looked upon favourably for procurements by the Air Force. The IBSAMAR series of exercises are now becoming an annual feature.

India’s bilateral cooperation in the region which ranges from coastal states of East Africa to South East Asia is robust with a series of  joint operational activities such as surveillance and patrolling, training and disaster management conducted regularly. This robust framework of defence cooperation already existing in India seems to be challenged by demands by the US to weave it in a common Indo US strategic architecture. For India’s policy makers it is a difficult choice given the importance of relations with Washington which now have a momentum of their own driven by common bonds of values as well as pragmatism while at the same time avoiding  a tight embrace that may offend China or traditional partners as Russia.  

A balanced approach in defence engagement which may not necessarily imply absolute autonomy, will serve India well. Such a policy will have to be based on the contours of an increasingly poly-centric or multi-polar world where important poles are apart from India itself, United States, China, Russia, Japan, major European and  ASEAN states, Brazil and South Africa. Israel will also remain a key partner as a long term and trusted defence supplier. Drawing upon the best that these countries have to offer in terms of operational expertise, training , military technology and trade, a balanced approach may be in order.

India’s strategic geography and structure of disputes with China and Pakistan is another key imperative, upsetting the status quo at present levels of military power may not be in either countries favour any initiatives that tends to do so will therefore have to be weighed carefully.

The long term trajectory of India’s defence inventory devoid of indigenous content for decades will also have to be factored in this balancing. Russia, France and other key European suppliers, Israel and the US will remain relevant in this context while newer options such as South Korea could also be examined in the long term.

Achieving strategic balance in some of the factors outlined above will dictate a pragmatic defence cooperation model for India avoiding the trap of veering too closely either which way.

Brig Rahul Bhonsle (Retd) is a Defence Analyst based in New Delhi