The Dragon Ghero-es the Elephant

The last few weeks has seen a flurry of perturbing reports concerning China's military ascendancy. While these sent ripples of disquiet through Asia-Pacific, for India the spectre of 1962 has been revived – now with a nuclear dimension. The successful Agni III test was a laudable scientific achievement, but it will still be some years before the laboratory-missile can be productionised and enter service. Meanwhile, press reports about a new Chinese nuclear site in India's vicinity raised needless alarm bells since China already has two India-specific missile bases in Tibet, which can target us far more efficiently. Hence, the strategic-weapons asymmetry, Agni III notwithstanding, is a no-contest with the Dragon. 

Even China's conventional superiority is worrisome and forcing us to swallow Chinese arrogance towards our diplomats and country. India is playing the diplomatic card, kow-towing to not-so-subtle Chinese gibes as well as relying on mutual economic benefits to maintain peace. However, at $ 36 bn, our bilateral trade is under one-twentieth of China's total – by no means a trump card. On the other hand, the Dragon has adopted a long-term, well-considered strategy of gherao-ing the Elephant at all strategically vulnerable points. 

Infrastructure into and within Tibet has been transformed. Two years ago, the engineering marvel of the Qinghai-Lhasa rail-link sent alarm bells through South Bloc. But it took 22 years to build the 1142 km Golmud-Lhasa stretch – enough time to react, except for Kumbhkaran-like slumber of the MoD which ignored for two decades the Army's proposals to upgrade our border roads. Now that China proposes to extend the rail link to Nepal, 71 border roads are proposed to be built in the forbidding Himalayan terrain. Meanwhile, in addition to the Kathmandu-Dulikhel-Lhasa road link, China has already built a four-lane concrete highway in Eastern Nepal terminating a few kilometres from the mouth of the Siliguri corridor – that vulnerable strip which links the North-eastern Seven Sisters to West Bengal.

On the west, decades ago, China constructed the Karakoram Highway over the 16000-foot Khunjerab Pass, connecting Kashgar (Xinjiang) to Gilgit (POK) and onto Abottabad and Rawalpindi. Next, a modern port has been made at Gwadar with China putting up over 80% of the money in order to access a naval base only 180 nautical miles from the vital Straits of Hormuz – India's energy jugular.  Simultaneously, a Gawadar-Karachi rail link is being constructed along with a similar link to Dalbandin, south-west of Quetta.

For several decades now China has been steadily pursuing its 'string of pearls' strategy to establish total control over sea links vital for its trade and energy routes. In addition to Gwadar the other 'pearls' comprise Chittagong in the Bay of Bengal, the deep-water naval base at Sittwe in Myanmar, astride the Malacca straits and the recently-unveiled deep-sea nuclear-submarine base at Hainan in the South China Sea. This facility allows Chinese nuclear submarines with SLBMs to vanish from surveillance right next to their homeland, keeping countries guessing about their destination and potential targets. China watchers have opined that she 'allowed' India a peek at this base to intimidate us at the height of the Tibet crisis. Then humiliating Chinese demands concerning security of the Olympic torch, obliged our National Security Advisor to personally supervise the Delhi run – amply demonstrating Indian impotence vis-à-vis China's might.

Years of somnolent neglect have found the chickens coming home to roost, which have ominous parallels with the pre-1962 days. The Navy, which needs a three-carrier fleet, is down to one - the 50-year old 'Viraat', which has had its life-span repeatedly extended. With induction of the 'Gorshkov' delayed by at least five more years, the Viraat has been forced into yet another extension, which will curtail our blue-water capability. The indigenous nuclear submarine remains only a wish, even as the Chinese have upgraded to second-generation Jin-class, SSBM-equipped, nuclear submarines. Similarly, the Air Force is down to 34 squadrons and its transport fleet reduced by 40%. This will shrink to 28 squadrons before the $ 10-bn, 126-fighters tender materialises, which cannot be physically operationalised for minimum a decade.

The Army is no better off, with the successful trials for the 155mm Howitzer being nullified on specious grounds. The requirement had been articulated about 15 years back. With a fresh RFP for 400 howitzers being floated in January, the clock has been put back 25 years. Meanwhile, the MoD is seeking to foist the DRDO death-trap, Arjun tank onto the Armoured Corps, who are understandably unwilling to become sacrificial goats.

Exploiting their military dominance, Chinese border intrusions are increasing –reminiscent of pre-1962 - while they stone-wall all attempts to resolve the dispute, offering only feel-good agreements with ground-realities remaining unchanged. These, our diplomats and security 'experts' have lapped up and trotted out as 'progress' towards peace and harmony!

Worse, the morale of the services is at an all-time low. Humiliated by a vicious bureaucracy and an uncaring political 'leadership', officers of the three services are queuing up to leave. Even top-notch officers have declined prestigious courses to avoid signing-on for another five years of bonded-'labour'. Service chiefs are publicly silenced and Govt remains oblivious of our defence un-preparedness. Our defence management is in the hands of amateur desk-wallahs who, despite numerous committee-recommendations, have kept Services professionals out of the decision-making loop. The nomenclature change to Integrated Defence HQ, MoD remains only cosmetic. The perception that having a General as NSA would lead to a war-mongering policy, which has been insidiously propagated, is erroneous. In fact, having put their lives at risk, defence officers are the strongest votaries of peace – and know how to attain it through positions of strength.

In sum, our Army, Navy, Airforce and Strategic Forces, all face crippling voids, while China races toward super-power capability. This is therefore, even more ominous than1962 when an ill-clothed, poorly-equipped Army was asked to 'throw the Chinese out'. Actions now initiated to plug voids in conventional armament and infrastructure will take over a decade to operationalise. By that time, given the huge budgetary support and rapid accretions in Chinese military capability, the yawning gap would only have worsened.

A rocket-boost in budgetary allocations to accelerate force modernisations is therefore, essential. Besides, the present MoD structure has miserably failed the nation. It is time for an overhaul with induction of Service officers into key MoD jobs and as NSA. In addition, retired defence officers be inducted as Rajya Sabha members to enable our peoples' forums to get sound strategic inputs.

(Courtesy: Hindustan Times (CHG), May 28, 2008)
 
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies.